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Liam Dawson could replace Joe Denly in World Cup squad - Trevor Bayliss
Published in
Cricket
Tuesday, 07 May 2019 10:24

Liam Dawson could yet replace Joe Denly in England's World Cup squad, according to coach Trevor Bayliss.
Dawson missed out on selection when England named a 17-man squad - including their provisional World Cup 15 - for the early international matches of the summer, but has continued to impress in county cricket. He made a List A century against Surrey last week and has conceded just 4.01 runs per over in claiming 17 wickets - only four men have more - in this year's Royal London Cup.
As a result, Bayliss says he could be called up to join the England squad before the end of the five-match Royal London ODI series against Pakistan, which begins at The Oval on Wednesday. Dawson has played just three ODIs.
That means Denly faces a couple of defining games over the next few days. With Moeen Ali injured - he has the "slightest of slight" cracks in a rib having been struck while batting at the IPL, according to Bayliss - England have a perfect opportunity to test their bench strength. Denly is not only all but certain to play at The Oval, he will be given an extended bowl with a view to seeing how he fares. He has so far been unable to cement his place in the squad, with the first two balls of his only over on Sunday thumped for sixes.
While Bayliss was keen to stress that Denly is not just seen as the reserve spinner - he can also bat and field in a variety of positions - much the same could be said about Dawson. And while previous games have seen Denly limited to supporting opportunities - he bowled only five overs in Dublin and one in Cardiff - it seems likely he will be given an extended opportunity at The Oval with a view to coming to a conclusion about his ability to perform at the top level.
"Denly's is probably the other position that I'm sure we - the selectors - will discuss," Bayliss said ahead of the opening match of the ODI series against Pakistan. "He is not the only bowler to run in and bowl a couple half-volleys to start a spell. But we're going to try to give the guys at least two or three games in this series so I wouldn't necessarily put it all down on one game.
"But it is getting to the business end. So the performances of everyone will count.
"Someone like Dawson will certainly be in discussions. He's done well this year and he's done well for us in the past when he's been given an opportunity at this level. I'm sure he'll be discussed as well. I don't think it would be out of place for me to say the final World Cup 15 will come down to the 17 we have in this squad and Dawson. It's probably down to that 18."
The other issue the selectors have to decide is whether to include Jofra Archer and, if they do, who he should replace. While it remains possible he could be included in place of Denly or Dawson, it is clear Bayliss believes that would leave a squad "over-stocked" with fast bowlers.
"It's not out of the question," Bayliss said. "But if we went that way, you might ask the question if we're over-stocked with fast bowlers. The answer, probably, would be yes.
"So that final fast bowling position is the big decision we have to make. If a fast bowler misses out - whoever it is - they are going to be bitterly disappointed. And it will be a difficult decision to make.
"Jofra looked fairly nervous in Ireland and I think that showed in his bowling. But he is very skilful, he has a bit of extra pace and he's fitted into the team in a short space of time very well. He can be a good player for England in the future, that's for sure. He's certainly in the mix."
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Sarfaraz wants to bat 'bat four or five', and that can only help Pakistan
Published in
Cricket
Tuesday, 07 May 2019 09:08

There was a time before he became captain when it mattered where Sarfaraz Ahmed batted.
In the run-up to the last World Cup, it seemed like opening might be a good idea. As opener, he made 34, 65 and 32 in a three-game series against Australia not long before the tournament, but was then shunted down to seven and eight for five ODIs against New Zealand right after it.
Then at the World Cup, he didn't play Pakistan's initial games. When they did pick him, they made him open (against South Africa's attack by the way, on a great surface for all kinds of fast bowling). He made 49 and an unbeaten 101 in his first two goes as opener, but then four bats later he was moved down again.
Then, in the English summer of 2016, he became Pakistan's No. 5. He was a good one too: 55, 105, 38, 12 and 90 across five innings. More significantly, in a hopelessly non-vogueish batting line, he made those 300 runs at a strike rate of nearly 92.
"We will obviously be flexible so that when there are fewer overs left we might switch around if we need somebody as a hitter and look at sending Imad [Wasim] or Asif [Ali]" SARFARAZ ON THE STRIKE-RATE PROBLEM
Three further innings at five - 35, 60* and 24*, strike rate 101.8, thanks - and that was that. The 24* came on October 5, 2016. In the 24 times he has batted in an ODI since, he's ventured above six just three times.
That innings was also the last he played before taking on the captaincy, so it's not as if he's been forced by others to not bat five. But such, presumably, is the overwhelming nature of the role that his batting, and where he bats, has become, well, somehow less important.
So the fact that he has batted at five and four in Pakistan's two 50-over warm-up games on this tour so far is significant, if only because it brings his batting finally back into focus. And that is where he plans to stay.
"My aim is in England to bat four or five, throughout the World Cup," Sarfaraz said ahead of their first ODI against England at The Oval. "We've come to a World Cup, it's a long tournament so it's good to have a stable and set batting order in which everyone knows where they are batting.
"We will obviously be flexible so that when there are fewer overs left we might switch around if we need somebody as a hitter and look at sending Imad [Wasim] or Asif [Ali]."
Ordinarily, this would be a good thing. Sarfaraz is not a power-hitter but he is the right side of restless in the middle overs, one of the few who weaponises running, and is innovative enough (bring back that sweep off the fast bowler). Of all the positions he's batted in, five is, by some distance, his most productive: averaging over 50 and a strike rate of 92.
And not that it's been planned that way, but his sample sizes across the main positions he has played in - opening and then four to seven - are actually similar: ten innings as opener, nine at four, ten at five, 20 at six and 12 at seven. So his record at five really makes it a no-brainer.
The only problem now is the strike rates of Pakistan's batting above him. Fakhar Zaman is fine, but Imam-ul-Haq (80.23), Babar Azam (84.03 at three) and Haris Sohail (85.08 at four) means that Pakistan could really do with plenty more explosiveness before Sarfaraz arrives. Mohammad Hafeez and his very similar strike rate has also to be factored in once he returns from injury (which is soon).
The batting has, as Sarfaraz said, become more modern than it was in 2016, but not maybe by a whole lot. "One of the issues then was that our strike rotation was poor and we've worked on that," he said. "Our strike rate was low generally but if you look at Fakhar, he goes at 90-95. Babar plays long innings but when he finishes he is near 85-90. So things are better - it's been a few years since that series and we've been preparing this side for the last 18 months."
What they really, desperately, want is for Asif to bolt into their squad for the World Cup. He is about the only man in or around the squad with the kind of power to really propel the second half of an ODI innings - in theory. If it hasn't turned out that way in practice it is because opportunities have remained limited. Even then, Pakistan aren't the kind of side that can easily overlook a strike rate of 130 in eight ODI innings and a career List A one of 109.
He has, however, at best, two games to make a case. Shoaib Malik returns from his leave most likely in time for the second or third ODI and he is, for reasons that aren't always obvious, among the first names in any Pakistan XI.
Still, unlike any side other than England, Pakistan have this incredible opportunity to fine-tune their first-choice XI in precisely the conditions they will be playing the World Cup in.
"It is definitely a big advantage for us, playing five top-quality ODIs before the World Cup," Sarfaraz said. "We're all focusing on the World Cup. But our first target is this ODI series. If we can take some confidence from this series, it will definitely help us in this World Cup."
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Alex Hales' dropping a message bad behaviour 'won't be tolerated'
Published in
Cricket
Tuesday, 07 May 2019 10:03

Trevor Bayliss hopes Alex Hales' punishment will "send a message" to every other player in England about the consequences of unprofessional behaviour.
Hales was dropped from England's World Cup plans last week after it emerged he had failed a second drugs test. While the drug concerned was recreational and the ECB insists Hales was not dropped directly because of that failure, Bayliss believes that other players witnessing the episode will have been left in no doubt as to the standards expected of them in the future.
But there is also a wider context. The sport is currently trying to reach out to a new, mass market, family audience yet has found itself hamstrung by unsavoury stories involving players in the media. After the Bristol incident which saw Ben Stokes tried, and cleared, on the charge of affray, the squad had, according to Bayliss, made efforts to improve the "culture" around the team. But news of Hales' drugs test failure put them back in the spotlight for all the wrong reasons and led Bayliss insisting "those days are over".
"It's not just a message to the players in this team: it's a message to the rest of the players in England and throughout county cricket," Bayliss said. "Those sort of decisions will not be tolerated.
"Hopefully county cricketers learn from it: there's not going to be any future for you if you go down that track. It is a message to everyone else out there that those days are over.
"You can still go out and have a few beers and enjoy yourselves, but it's about making the right decisions and choices. It's part of being a young sportsman these days, there is that extra exposure, and you have to be that bit more diligent that you do make those right decisions."
While Bayliss confirmed he was right behind the decision to drop Hales - and suggested the squad had quickly moved on without him - he insisted a recall was possible if the player could demonstrate he was capable of "making the right choices".
"Unfortunately, Alex made some wrong choices and the end result is that he's been deselected," Bayliss said. "I think it was the right decision. I never had the chance to get near a World Cup as a player and I can't imagine throwing it away.
"I spoke to Eoin Morgan before that meeting with the senior players [that recommended dropping Hales]. He said he would take that to the players and see what their response was. I think we were all on the same page. There were some mistakes made 18 months ago, but in the last 18 months this group of players have all worked extremely hard on their culture and unity.
"There hasn't been any talk about it at all amongst the group of players. Things have carried on as per normal. Everything has just moved on very smoothly. We've played two games and I haven't heard a whisper about it. Everyone has moved on and we've got James Vince in the team at the moment who I suppose is a similar type of player. Everyone has moved on.
"But Alex can certainly make a comeback. There's no roadblocks there. He's obviously been an important part of this team over the last half-a-dozen years or so, and there's no reason why he can't learn to make the right choices in future and make it back into this team. It's certainly been relayed to him that his career is not over, but it is up to him."
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Mohammad Amir seeks Oval encore in bid to revive World Cup prospects
Published in
Cricket
Tuesday, 07 May 2019 11:09

Mohammad Amir's last-ditch audition for a role in Pakistan's World Cup campaign could begin at the very ground where he was one of the architects of their memorable Champions Trophy triumph of 2017.
Amir was not picked in Pakistan's preliminary squad for the tournament but has been included in the 17-man squad for this England series, which begins tomorrow at The Oval. If he does start, it will be with the understanding that performances here could squeeze him into the final World Cup 15.
So far on this tour Amir has appeared in just one of the four games Pakistan have played - a warm-up 50-over game against Northamptonshire in which he picked up 1 for 45.
But it is understood that he will be part of Pakistan's match-day 12 and depending on what the weather and surface look like in the morning stands a good chance to start.
"As far as fast bowling goes, we will be flexible in this series, we will try and give Amir a full opportunity," captain Sarfaraz Ahmed said. "The good thing is we have this opportunity to try out what we need to try out before the World Cup. We have till May 2 so we'd like to give Amir a full opportunity to stake his claim in the side."
If he does make it into the squad, it will hold some extra personal significance for Amir, being his first World Cup. He missed the 2011 and 2015 tournaments because of his five-year ban for spot-fixing.
The word around Amir's non-inclusion is that it is the kick he has long needed to put things right in the 50-over game. But given how lean a drought he has endured since that Champions Trophy final, he will still need to show some solid wicket-taking form to get back in.
In the 14 ODIs since the final, he's taken just five wickets, going wicketless in an innings as many as nine times. It's been a strange run in which, though he's rarely looked like taking a wicket, he's also not looked awful. His economy rate in that period is 4.58, though if you take out games against Zimbabwe and Hong Kong that goes up to 5.28.
But Pakistan already have two left-arm pacemen in the World Cup squad; the emerging Shaheen Shah Afridi, against whose dazzling and swift rise Amir's own form has paled; and Junaid Khan, an exact contemporary of Amir's through their earliest years, who without ever attracting the same attention has picked up far more wickets since the Champions Trophy.
The arrival of Mohammad Hasnain has also made it harder for Amir. Hasnain has the one thing Pakistan's squad has missed: genuine pace. It is something that Mickey Arthur in particular is very excited about, enough to overlook his extreme rawness. Hasnain has only played four List A games in his career, of which three were ODIs.
If Amir were to perform in these ODIs, however, Hasnain or to a lesser degree Junaid might be most at risk of losing a spot.
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'We had an off day' - Dhoni on CSK's batting frailties
Published in
Cricket
Tuesday, 07 May 2019 12:01

Chennai Super Kings had a lot of things in their favour in Qualifier 1. They were at home. They won the toss. And they had a strong core of experienced players that has been there and done that in the backend of the IPL. But a problem that's followed them all through the 2019 season hit them once again - top-order frailty. MS Dhoni laid the blame for the defeat to Mumbai Indians squarely on his batsmen, who failed to utilise all the advantages at their disposal.
"It didn't really go our way," he said at the presentation. "Especially the batting. Especially when you know home conditions. You have to assess very quickly how the wicket is playing. That's the bonus of playing at home, you've already played six games or seven games, so you know how the wicket has played, whether it is a bit tacky, whether it is coming on or not coming on. What is a good score that we should put on the board. Those are the things I felt we didn't do well in this game because of which we were not able to put something that would have been good to defend. I think the batting needs to get slightly better.
"When you have experienced players in the side, that's what you bank upon them. You're not banking on them for extraordinary fielding. It's just that they have to use their experience slightly more" Dhoni expressing disappointment at CSK's shot selection
The pitch at Chepaulk was a turner and there was a high degree of risk in hitting against the spin. Yet two veterans - Suresh Raina and Shane Watson - tried to do just that and lost their wickets, leaving CSK 33 for 3 at the end of the Powerplay. Still, Dhoni continued to defend his misfiring batting line-up, but was disappointed with some of the shot selection on show.
Yes, they're the best that we've got. On and off, they've done well. If you look at [them] when they bat, they've done well, But on and off, in some game, they've pulled out a shot that's really not on in that particular game or in that situation or in that condition. So, those are things that you need to assess. Especially, when you have experienced players in the side, that's what you bank upon them. You're not banking on them for extraordinary fielding. It's just that they have to use their experience slightly more. Hopefully we'll crack the code."
CSK's defence of 131 began well, but they couldn't stem the runs well enough to put pressure on Mumbai's long batting-line up.
"I feel once you don't have enough runs on the board, every boundary, it actually hurts you. I feel we got off to a good start, Rohit [Sharma]'s wicket early was good, after that we kept giving boundaries, which you can't really afford to do. It was an off game for us and it's bad to have this kind of a game at this stage of the tournament but still the good thing is you're top two so you get another chance. So rather than going over the wicket now you have to round the wicket. The journey becomes slightly long."
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There won't be a Triple Crown winner in 2019.
Bill Mott, the trainer of Kentucky Derby winner Country House, told the Daily Racing Form that the horse will not race in the Preakness Stakes because he has become ill.
"He developed a little bit of a cough this morning," Mott told the Daily Racing Form by telephone. "His appetite is good. He doesn't have a fever. But he's coughing. We drew blood. He's acting like he's going to get sick. He's off the training list, and if he's off the training list, he's off the Preakness list.
"It's probably a little viral thing. Hopefully it doesn't develop into anything serious. Usually when something like this happens, a horse misses a couple weeks of training. He's not seriously sick right now, but he's showing indications that something is going on."
The 1 3/16-mile Preakness is May 18 at Pimlico Race Course in Baltimore. Although shorter than the Kentucky Derby, the race requires a quick turnaround.
Country House was declared the winner of the Kentucky Derby on Saturday after Maximum Security was disqualified for interference. The Kentucky Horse Racing Commission denied an appeal filed by attorney D. Barry Stilz on behalf of Maximum Security owners Gary and Mary West on Monday. After that ruling, Gary West told the Associated Press that he plans to "file suit in whatever the appropriate court is."
Racing stewards disqualified Maximum Security and elevated Country House to the winner's circle following objections filed by two jockeys. Stewards determined Maximum Security impeded the paths of several horses in the race.
Maximum Security is the first Derby winner disqualified for interference in the race's 145-year history.
The Associated Press contributed to this report.
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers defensive end Jason Pierre-Paul suffered a potentially season-ending fractured neck in a single-car crash last week in South Florida, league sources told ESPN's Adam Schefter on Tuesday.
Pierre-Paul, 30, will likely need surgery, a source told Schefter. He will be visiting with neck specialists at some point this week to get their opinions, with the hope that a portion of this season can be saved.
"As we stated last week following the news of Jason's auto accident, our immediate concern was for both Jason and his passenger," general manager Jason Licht said in a statement Tuesday. "While Jason was treated and released in South Florida the same day of the accident, we wanted to ensure that our medical team had an opportunity to perform a thorough evaluation here in Tampa, and that process is currently ongoing."
The crash occurred early Thursday morning in Broward County. Pierre-Paul sought medical attention at a local hospital and was released. He was not cited for the crash.
Pierre-Paul hasn't attended any of the voluntary workouts that the Buccaneers have held this offseason under new coach Bruce Arians.
The Bucs didn't prioritize defensive line in the draft, partly because they were counting on Pierre-Paul, who had 12.5 sacks last season -- the first time a Tampa Bay player had reached double-digit sacks since Simeon Rice in 2005.
To make matters worse, six-time Pro Bowl defensive tackle Gerald McCoy has not been present for the first month of the offseason program due to team concerns over his $13 million price tag and the fact that the Bucs currently have less than $2 million in salary-cap space. There had been widespread speculation that the Bucs were attempting to trade McCoy -- with the feeling that the relationship may be beyond repair -- but at this point, they may need to make amends for the sake of continuity.
Prior to being traded to the Bucs before last season, Pierre-Paul, a 2010 first-round pick, had an up-and-down run with the New York Giants. He had 16.5 sacks and helped them to a Super Bowl victory during the 2011 season. He made a pair of Pro Bowls and later returned to play at a high level after his career seemed to be in jeopardy following a 2015 Fourth of July fireworks accident that cost him his right index finger and parts of several others.
ESPN's Jenna Laine contributed to this report.
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Follow live: Messi, Barcelona look to close out Liverpool in Champions League semis
Published in
Breaking News
Tuesday, 07 May 2019 08:37

Saves 2
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DENVER -- Enes Kanter, a devout Muslim, is fasting from sunrise to sunset each day for the next month in observance of Ramadan. He even sought out an NBA legend for some advice on how to do it while maintaining a high level of play in the playoffs for the Portland Trail Blazers.
"I texted Hakeem [Olajuwon], because I met him like two years ago and I know what he did in I think it was 1995, when he won the MVP in the playoffs. But I texted him and was like, 'Hey, how did you fast through Ramadan and play at a really high level?'" Kanter said Tuesday morning. "And he gave me some tips. He gave me what he was eating, when he would wake up -- like at 4 in the morning -- how much water he was drinking and stuff."
Fasting for Ramadan means throughout the day -- no food, no water and maybe most importantly for Kanter and his injured left shoulder, no medication.
"I took medicine at like 4 in the morning and I will take medicine again right before the game, because I can break my fast before the game," Kanter said. "But I'll be fine."
With Game 5 tipping at 8:30 p.m. in Denver and the city breaking its fast at 8:06 p.m., Kanter, who has been dealing with a separated left shoulder, can eat, drink and take medicine prior to the start.
"I might just have someone get some peanut butter and jelly sandwiches on the bench for me to eat during timeouts," Kanter said.
Kanter fasts each year during the regular season "once or twice a week" to get his body ready for Ramadan and was unconcerned about it affecting his play at all. He said he talked to Blazers coach Terry Stotts about it Monday.
"He was very respectful and respected everything," Kanter said.
Olajuwon was his typical stellar self during Ramadan, even producing better numbers in some seasons while fasting.
"As for fasting, it is a spiritual mindset that gives you the stamina required to play," Olajuwon told The Undefeated's Marc J. Spears in 2017. "Through Allah's mercy, I always felt stronger and more energetic during Ramadan."
Kanter sees it the same way.
"It's just mind over matter, man," he said. "I think it just gives you so much positive vibes that just go out there to say, 'You know what I'm doing this for God, so God [will] help me.'"
Kanter said when he reached out to Olajuwon, the Hall of Famer was "very happy and very proud," and that they talked a little about basketball. But mostly, the focus was on Ramadan, the discipline it requires and how observing it during the most high profile part of the season can serve as inspiration for others.
"It doesn't matter what your status is, what your position is, I just want to set an example for the young generation," Kanter said. "Because it's very important for them to follow their religion.
"It's awesome to get help from a legend," Kanter said, "so I would love to be the new Hakeem for younger generations."
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Lowe: Twenty-three reasons to enjoy the wild Blazers-Nuggets series
Published in
Basketball
Tuesday, 07 May 2019 09:17

Twenty-three thoughts on the wildest series of a wild second round:
It is easy to dismiss this as the consolation series: Win, and Golden State or Houston tramples you. Yeah, the winner here will be a huge underdog in the Western Conference finals. The Portland Trail Blazers and Denver Nuggets have to be exhausted. Damian Lillard has looked fried for portions of this series, including for the last hour or so (!) of the epic four-overtime Game 3 of this conference semifinal. He spent extended stretches acting as decoy, loitering on the wing as CJ McCollum ran the show.
A willingness to share the stage is part of what makes Lillard a beloved, galvanizing leader. But this looked different. Lillard was passive -- standing instead of cutting or screening. Decoy mode lasted longer than it should have.
The Nuggets are also making Lillard work on defense, often trying to get him switched onto Jamal Murray.
• Denver's resiliency is remarkable. Snagging two borderline must-win Game 4s on the road requires guts and confidence you don't typically find in teams this green. Portland and San Antonio both went 32-9 at home, tied for the league's third-best mark, behind only Milwaukee and the Nuggets themselves. Beating both on the road, down 2-1, is a major accomplishment.
From the last week of March to Sunday, the Nuggets played 20 games in 39 days. Denver is tough.
• On the opposite side of the bracket, Kevin Durant is carrying a Golden State Warriors team that suddenly looks thin and a little wobbly. Durant might not be on that team next season. They have no cap space to replace him and almost no bench. Draymond Green is 29 and had to go on a quick-fix diet -- planned, but still -- to get in playoff shape. Stephen Curry is 31 and dealing with injuries and foul trouble. Those are annual postseason occurrences now.
Curry has another gear in reserve if Durant leaves. Golden State won a championship and then 73 games that way. Curry's alleged postseason struggles are a little overblown. His numbers are very good, and his impact on Golden State's offense always extends beyond those numbers.
But it's hard to watch these Warriors and conclude that the theoretical post-Durant version would be anything like a lock to enter next season as favorites in the West. That is the real backdrop to this Denver-Portland war of attrition, even if it doesn't seem that way.
• The Blazers and Nuggets are almost mirror images of each other. They lean slightly offense-first, and the series has leaned that way too. The combined score after four games is Denver by two. They tied for the league lead in offensive rebounding rate, and they rank first and second in this round. They both take care of the ball and force few turnovers, and this series has been predictably clean. They prefer a slow pace.
They build their offenses around deadly two-man games and run lots of the same actions. The series can feel like an endless series of pick-and-rolls and handoffs on one side of the floor -- with no other players on that same side.
For Portland, the danger is in its guards jacking open 3-pointers behind those picks. For Denver, it is Nikola Jokic -- perhaps the most unpredictable and broadly skilled screen-setter in the league -- taking whatever the defense gives him, and even some things it doesn't realize it is giving.
Both defenses are attacking those pick-and-rolls aggressively, though Denver has its big men -- mostly Jokic -- scampering further to swarm Lillard and McCollum above the 3-point arc:
That starts with McCollum jamming Jokic -- a pet Portland "screen-the-screener" action designed to shove Jokic behind the play:
The Blazers have cleared Lillard's side so that he has an easy passing lane to Kanter, and Kanter a clear view of the floor on the catch. Denver has seen this a million times and knows what to do:
Malik Beasley, a stalwart in these playoffs, slides away from Maurice Harkless under the rim to account for Kanter. Torrey Craig shifts down from Al-Farouq Aminu to block any pass to Harkless but remains in position to dart back to Aminu. This is the past four seasons of Portland basketball: Teams leave Harkless and Aminu open, and the Blazers often win or lose based on how many 3s they hit. They are 4-of-22 against Denver.
• Aminu's flash to the foul line is a smart counter. He can't just chill in the corner. Standing there puts him parallel to Harkless. That is a tricky skip pass for Lillard and McCollum; it's hard to see, and they have to throw it over multiple defenders.
• Jokic has been solid moving his feet, getting the ball out of Lillard's hands and shuffling back into the paint. But there have been a decent number of instances in which he hasn't come out far enough, and Lillard has had space to launch. Lillard has not been able to exploit those openings often enough. He has passed up some 3-pointers and meandered into long 2-pointers.
He can make a lot of those! He's Damian Lillard! But something has felt a little off -- like Lillard is still feeling out the series, wary of Craig pawing at his shot from behind. Lillard is leaving some 3s on the table.
• Something Portland should do even more: have their bigs rescreen in the opposite direction. Jokic has had no shot corralling the Portland guards twice in rapid succession:
(Yes, Lillard missed. The rescreen has worked almost every time.)
• Double screens for Lillard in semi-transition -- especially near midcourt -- have also hurt Denver:
• Another smart tactic Portland has busted out more every game: letting Lillard attack one-on-one, before any pick arrives. Why invite a trap when Lillard can roast Craig in isolation? Lillard slashed inside for a crunch-time layup to bring Portland within two with 2:47 left in Game 4.
• A variation of this that has worked for both Lillard and McCollum: dribbling toward Kanter's pick, then veering away from it -- into open space. Lillard's defender is often leaning toward the pick, girding himself for the chase. Jokic is primed to lunge at Lillard. Going the other way wrong-foots both.
• I suspect the Lillard isolation is why Denver shifted Gary Harris onto him, and Craig onto McCollum, in the second half of Game 4. Harris is quicker and shiftier. He has done good work on Lillard. It hasn't gotten enough attention amid Jokic mania and the Murray roller coaster, but Harris has proved ready for the postseason hothouse. He competes on every possession, and he is not afraid to bulldoze through Lillard and McCollum when he flies into a Jokic handoff with some runway.
• Having Harris on Lillard also means Lillard is often stuck on Harris -- instead of hiding on Craig -- after Portland misses. Anything to make Lillard work.
• We have seen only flashes -- usually in crunch time -- of Jokic hiding on Aminu so that Paul Millsap can take Kanter and muck up the Lillard/Kanter pick-and-roll with his meat-hook hands. Portland has obvious counters -- use Aminu as screener, post Kanter against Millsap -- but I wonder if we might see more of that.
• Slotting McCollum onto the weak side of a Lillard pick-and-roll -- or plopping Lillard there if McCollum has the controls -- puts Denver in a tough position of having to help off an ace shooter instead of the Harkless/Aminu duo:
Denver could adjust by having Millsap abandon Aminu on the strong side -- next to Lillard -- and the Nuggets have tried to do that on a few possessions:
But that reverses typical help responsibilities, and executing it on the fly is hard. (The Warriors are really good at this sort of strongside improvisation.)
• Rodney Hood on the weakside works too, though this is good defense:
The Blazers are plus-9 with Hood, McCollum and Lillard on the floor -- and Hood in place of Harkless. They lose some size that way. Harkless is defending Murray, and that gives Portland the flexibility to switch any Murray-Millsap action.
But Hood has managed the Murray assignment well. He is a more polished post player than Harkless, though less brutish, and the Blazers are trying to scrounge some points by posting Murray. (Murray's defense remains a train wreck.)
I wonder if Terry Stotts might give the Hood/Lillard/McCollum look more run.
• Seth Curry has played only 16 minutes alongside both of Portland's star guards. Portland might be able to risk a few more.
• Meanwhile, here is Denver's version of that side pick-and-roll:
Portland's response is the same: blitz Harris and have a help defender leave one of Denver's blah shooters -- Millsap here -- to meet Jokic on the catch. Easy!
But even when you do it well, Jokic is skilled enough to hurt you:
That is close to what Portland wants: pin Denver on the sideline, and force Jokic into a floater. Problem: Jokic is a floater expert. Jokic sets the pick low enough so that he is almost in layup range. What a scamp.
• The most fun chess match is Portland's defense against the Murray-Jokic high pick-and-roll. Denver is running 37 of those suckers per 100 possessions, up from 24 in the regular season, per Second Spectrum data. In theory, it shouldn't be that hard to contain. Murray is not quite a Lillard-style off-the-bounce gunner; you don't have to blitz him with the same urgency. Jokic is an average 3-point shooter with a slow release.
Plant Kanter around the top of the key -- not too high, not too low -- and he can scramble back in time to either challenge Jokic's jumper or meet him around the foul line:
This feels like an overreaction from McCollum:
Maybe it is. But Jokic can make contested runners over Kanter. If Kanter is a beat late rotating back, Jokic drives into him and draws a foul. Jokic can shoot over Kanter, and he has hit 41 percent from deep in the playoffs. Close out too hard and Jokic can pump-and-drive by you.
He is a threat to do almost anything against a scrambled defense, and you can see Portland panicking in rotation limbo: Should we switch? Should a third defender fly at him? Jokic preys on indecision.
• When Portland sends that third defender at Jokic, Denver has that guy's man cut backdoor -- as Barton does here with Curry waiting to pounce on Jokic:
Denver hasn't gotten much out of that yet -- credit Portland's defense -- but it's something to explore, even if Jokic just fakes a pass there before driving.
• Murray has also been really smart generating switches. If Kanter drops too far back, Murray zooms right into him -- basically forcing Kanter to switch. Murray will bob and weave behind Jokic until he tricks the defense into nearly switching against its will. His feel and IQ are underrated.
• Once that switch happens, Jokic goes to work in the post. He can do that without a switch. Portland has flirted with sliding Aminu onto him -- so Aminu and Harkless can switch the Murray-Jokic action -- but I'm not sure that's tenable. It requires an automatic double-team, and at that point, you're praying Denver misses heaps of open 3s off Jokic kickout passes.
The Nuggets are weirdly prone to missing heaps of open 3s. But Portland's help defense behind double-teams has been kind of a mess. Too many people rush to the same spot, leaving too much space uncovered:
Lillard and Curry (at the foul line here) have a bad habit of turning and watching in no-man's land:
Jokic has to keep posting and trusting his shooters.
• The series might be decided by those fraught moments when the best players are on the bench. Denver is minus-38 in the 30 minutes Jokic has rested. That is, like, impossible. Michael Malone has pivoted to using Millsap as the only starter in lineups that open the second and fourth quarters. Those groups include Will Barton, who came alive in Portland -- Will Barton revenge alert! -- and started half the season.
Malone might need to rejigger the rotation so one of Murray or Harris joins that group. Playing Millsap at center could be a way to do that. He has also experimented with pulling Jokic a bit earlier in the first and third quarters, as well as using him to anchor the second unit.
• Stotts has ditched the bench mob and used McCollum to prop up small-ball reserve groups with Evan Turner at power forward and Zach Collins at center. Collins has been really good on both ends. Turner has three baskets in the playoffs. His ballhandling isn't quite as valuable with McCollum on the floor, though every bit helps. Millsap abused him in the post until Game 4.
These lineups have held up fine. They feel a little rickety. Swapping in Harkless or Aminu might make them sturdier.
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