JACKSONVILLE, Fla. -- The Jacksonville Jaguars (4-13) fired Doug Pederson on Monday, leaving owner Shad Khan to seek his sixth head coach since he purchased the team in November 2011.

Pederson, who won a Super Bowl coaching the Philadelphia Eagles, was hired in January 2022. In his first season, Pederson led the Jaguars to a 9-8 record, AFC South title and playoff win. In 2023, the Jaguars went 9-8 again but missed the playoffs. Khan expected them to return to the postseason in 2024, but it all quickly fell apart when the Jaguars started the season 0-4.

Along the way, there were embarrassing losses to the Chicago Bears, Las Vegas Raiders, New York Jets, Buffalo Bills and Detroit Lions (the 46-point margin was the worst in franchise history). The Jaguars' four victories came against teams without a winning record.

The Jaguars had the worst passing defense in the league -- giving up 257.4 yards per game. The offense was ravaged by injuries -- none bigger than quarterback Trevor Lawrence missing seven games with a shoulder injury and concussion -- and struggled to find consistency. Pederson was unable to find answers, despite the team spending big on free agents in the offseason.

Here's more from ESPN Jaguars reporter Michael DiRocco, NFL national reporter Jeremy Fowler and NFL draft analyst Matt Miller on why the Jaguars moved on from Pederson and what's in store for the Jaguars this offseason.

Why was Pederson unable to fix the Jaguars' issues?

At one point in November 2023, the Jaguars were 8-3 and in contention for the No. 1 seed in the AFC. They not only missed the playoffs that season, but have gone 5-18 since, with the only victories coming over the Carolina Panthers (2023), Indianapolis Colts, Tennessee Titans (twice) and the New England Patriots.

Pederson didn't have the answers to turn the ship around.

The Jaguars were 3-10 in one-score games this season, the most such losses in a single season in the Super Bowl era (since 1966), according to ESPN research.

Beyond wins and losses, Pederson's inability to elevate Lawrence into one of the NFL's top quarterbacks was a problem. Since an impressive ending to the 2022 season, Lawrence -- and the offense -- have steadily declined.

From the start of the 2022 season to Week 12 of 2023, Lawrence completed 67% of his passes with 37 touchdowns and 15 interceptions. Since that point, those numbers have dropped to 61.3% with 20 touchdowns and 14 interceptions. More importantly, his off-target percentage jumped from 14.3% to 19.7%, per ESPN Research.

Lawrence missed eight games because of multiple injuries over that span, including the seven this season.

Despite Khan hinting this past offseason that he wanted Pederson to take back playcalling duties from offensive coordinator Press Taylor, Pederson stuck with Taylor and the offense kept regressing.

Khan told the team before the season began that this was the best Jaguars squad ever assembled and that he expected to make the playoffs -- and Pederson ultimately failed to do that. -- DiRocco

A statement from Jaguars Owner Shad Khan. pic.twitter.com/jpNoeSfm81

Jacksonville Jaguars (@Jaguars) January 6, 2025

Why did they keep GM Trent Baalke?

While general manager Trent Baalke does shoulder some blame, he is being retained by Khan and will assist in finding a third head coach in five years. He is entering the final year of his contract.

Baalke, who took over as GM after Dave Caldwell was fired in 2020, drafted Lawrence and running back Travis Etienne Jr. in the first round in 2021.

The GM made a questionable decision by choosing defensive end Travon Walker over DE Aidan Hutchinson with the first overall draft pick in 2022. Walker has been a very good player -- he has 24 career sacks, including 20.5 combined the past two seasons -- but Hutchinson has 28.5 sacks for the Detroit Lions and was leading the NFL with 7.5 before suffering a broken leg in Week 5.

But Baalke's 2024 first-round pick, receiver Brian Thomas Jr., set franchise rookie records in catches, yards and touchdown receptions and is regarded as the best receiver from the rookie class. Khan told the Florida Times-Union during the season that Thomas was proof of the Jaguars' draft process working.

Baalke's free agent class in 2022 -- tight end Evan Engram, receiver Christian Kirk, receiver Zay Jones, right guard Brandon Scherff, linebacker Foyesade Oluokun and cornerback Darious Williams -- was one of the best in franchise history and the core of the team when they made the playoffs.

But 2024's free agent class, other than center Mitch Morse, was a massive disappointment after dishing out over $75 million in guarantees. Receiver Gabe Davis had 20 catches in 10 games before going on IR with a knee injury, defensive tackle Arik Armstead played mainly at end and tallied two sacks, cornerback Ronald Darby lost his starting job and returner/receiver Devin Duvernay and safety Darnell Savage have made minimal impact.

There is clearly hope that a new coach will be enough to spark these Jaguars without having to undergo a rebuild of the front office. -- DiRocco

How will Lawrence be affected?

A third head coach in five seasons isn't ideal, but a fresh start could be good for Lawrence, especially if the Jaguars hire a top offensive coordinator such as the Lions' Ben Johnson or the Buccaneers' Liam Cohen.

The Jaguars' offense -- and Lawrence -- have become stagnant, and digging into a new system could energize him. Lawrence turned 25 in October. He's a young, talented player with potential, making the Jaguars' job attractive, since Lawrence is under contract for the next six seasons.

Change isn't always bad for quarterbacks. We've seen that with Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold -- the first and third picks, respectively, in 2018 -- having a career renaissance this season after things soured with their original teams. Both threw for more than 4,000 yards and 35-plus touchdowns this season after finally landing in better situations.

Coach Kevin O'Connell's Vikings went 3-6 last season while starting Joshua Dobbs, Nick Mullens and Jaren Hall after losing Kirk Cousins to a torn Achilles, and now he has Darnold in the MVP conversation. Mayfield has thrown 39 touchdown passes, shattering his previous career high (28) in Cohen's first season as the Bucs' offensive coordinator.

There is no desire to move on from Lawrence, so bringing in the right head coach and/or offensive coordinator could spark a similar surge. -- DiRocco

Does the roster have the talent to be an immediate contender in 2025?

On the offensive side, yes -- provided the team doesn't decide to move on from Kirk and Engram in an effort to save $16.9 million in cap space (which would also require a $27.1 million dead cap hit). Both players have proved their connection with Lawrence and are veteran voices in the locker room.

Lawrence has shown he can play at a game-changing level -- from Week 12 in 2022 to Week 12 in 2023, he ranked in the top 10 in completion percentage, yards per attempt, QBR and passing yards, and the Jaguars were 14-4. He just needs to stay healthy.

Now he has a WR1 in Thomas and a running back duo in Etienne and Tank Bigsby that could be solid.

Four starters will return from an offensive line that ranked 19th in pass block win rate (58.6%) and 25th in run block win rate (70.2%), so that is somewhat of a concern.

The biggest roster issue is the defense. It ranked last in the NFL in passing (257.4 yards per game) and turnovers (nine), 31st in total defense (389.9), and 27th in scoring (25.6 points per game) under coordinator Ryan Nielsen, who was in his first season with the Jaguars.

Upgrades this offseason are needed at safety, interior defensive line, cornerback, and linebacker -- and the Jaguars need to find a third pass rusher to complement Walker and end Josh Hines-Allen. Playmakers are scarce on that side of the ball, with no player having more than one interception or fumble recovery.

The Jaguars will likely find help in free agency or the NFL draft -- where they will have the No. 5 pick. -- DiRocco

How enticing is the Jaguars job? Who are you hearing might be interested?

Many around the league believe Jacksonville, on paper, is the best job, narrowly outshining Chicago. The roster has intriguing talent on both sides of the ball. Lawrence, despite his struggles, is still considered a top-half quarterback in the league. Coaching in the AFC South will be a draw, with Tennessee and Indianapolis very much in transition. Baalke staying on as general manager will be a factor.

The sentiment existed in some league circles that the Jaguars would make the head-coaching position more desirable by also opening the GM spot, signifying a complete reset. But even if Baalke's retention limits the pool, that doesn't mean the Jaguars can't get the right coach.

Jacksonville has leaned offense in its past few hires, so sticking with that theme, there are plenty of young coordinators who will fit the bill, including the Lions' Johnson, the Bucs' Coen, the Bills' Joe Brady, the Eagles' Kellen Moore and the Texans' Bobby Slowik.

The Chiefs' Matt Nagy, the Commanders' Kliff Kingsbury and the Ravens' Todd Monken fit that description as well and have head-coaching experience, something Jacksonville has valued in its past three hires (Doug Marrone, Urban Meyer and Pederson).

Also, don't sleep on Lions defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn here. He's considered one of the strongest candidates, and even though he has been linked to the Jets' and Saints' jobs due to his history there, Jacksonville offers a good opportunity that he will likely evaluate. -- Jeremy Fowler

What position might the new Jaguars coaching staff target with the No. 5 pick?

As mentioned above, this is an offense with exciting young players in Lawrence and Thomas, along with some solid talent along the offensive line. There is room to add and round out the receiver room, but it's obvious that the Jaguars need help on defense.

The perfect prospect to answer these questions? Travis Hunter, Colorado's two-way, Heisman Trophy-winning star. His ability as a shutdown cornerback -- he had four interceptions in 2024 -- and as a game-changing wide receiver would allow the Jaguars to check off two boxes with one draft pick. Hunter could start on one side of the ball and still have a heavy package of 20 or so plays on the other in a role that allows his special tools to shine. -- Matt Miller

FOXBOROUGH, Mass. -- When the New England Patriots hired Jerod Mayo as head coach on Jan. 17, 2024, owner Robert Kraft expressed his optimism about exciting, new chapters in the franchise's championship-filled history.

Turns out there was only one chapter, as Mayo's tenure lasted one season, with the team announcing it is moving on shortly after Sunday's 23-16 win over the Buffalo Bills. The Patriots finished 4-13 under Mayo.

Kraft handpicked Mayo as Bill Belichick's successor after 24 seasons, citing his knack for connecting with a younger generation of players and bringing people together. Fearing he would lose Mayo to another team after he interviewed with the Denver Broncos, Las Vegas Raiders and Philadelphia Eagles, Kraft wrote succession language in Mayo's contract while Mayo was serving as a linebackers coach under Belichick.

But Kraft is now aborting those plans to move in a new direction. Here's a look at why the decision was made and what's in store for the Patriots this offseason. -- Mike Reiss

Why wasn't Mayo given more time?

Kraft had acknowledged there would be "growing pains" in Mayo's first year, in part because he inherited one of the least talented rosters in the NFL, but the tolerance to live with those pains seemed to lessen as things unraveled over the final month of the season.

The Patriots had the NFL's latest bye (Week 14) and the hope was to build momentum heading into 2025. Instead, the team played with lower-level urgency in a 30-17 road loss to the Arizona Cardinals coming out of the bye, and then no-showed two weeks later in a 40-7 home loss to the Los Angeles Chargers in which fans at the barely half-filled stadium chanted "Fire Mayo."

Mayo's erratic messaging with the media and linebacker Jahlani Tavai telling fans to "know their place" and not boo Mayo were among off-field issues for ownership to assess. The Patriots did show better fight against the Bills in a 24-21 road loss in Week 16, and also beat them on Sunday, but fan dissent had grown to the highest levels seen in Kraft's 31-year tenure. If the Patriots had lost Sunday vs. the Bills, they would have secured the No. 1 pick. Instead, they will pick No. 4.

"We have tremendous fans who expect and deserve a better product than we have delivered in recent years. I apologize for that. I have given much thought and consideration as to what actions I can take to expedite our return to championship contention and determined this move was the best option at this time," Kraft said in a statement on the firing. -- Reiss

How much of a role did roster talent play in the Patriots' season?

A significant role -- specifically on the offensive line and at wide receiver. The Patriots started seven different offensive line configurations in the first seven weeks of the season and 10 different combinations by season's end because of personnel missteps, injuries and poor performance.

Meanwhile, after executive vice president of player personnel Eliot Wolf stressed the need to "weaponize" the offense in the offseason to support rookie quarterback Drake Maye, opponents had little fear of a receiving corps with Kayshon Boutte, Kendrick Bourne and DeMario Douglas atop the depth chart.

Part of that is tied to coaching and a lack of development, as the Patriots had first-year position coaches along the offensive line and receiver and didn't see their rookies progress to become the frontline contributors they hoped they would be. -- Reiss

Statement from Patriots Chairman and CEO Robert Kraft: https://t.co/2YgHtzzBHK pic.twitter.com/GMXGgd768x

New England Patriots (@Patriots) January 5, 2025

Could other changes to team leadership be on the horizon?

Whenever a head coach is fired, that means assistants wind up leaving as well. But those under contract could also be interviewed by whoever is hired next and possibly remain; that will be sorted out as the process evolves.

The future of Wolf and the personnel staff -- and how that fits with a new coach -- is arguably the biggest storyline. The Patriots have nine total draft picks (four within the first three rounds) and $130 million in salary cap space, so that will be a critical decision Kraft and the new coach must make. -- Reiss

How will this change impact QB Drake Maye?

Offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt, whose future with the franchise was uncertain even if Mayo stayed, was the coach who worked most closely with Maye. Van Pelt was credited by Mayo for aiding Maye's development more than anyone else in the organization.

So, this opens the possibility that Maye will be learning a new system in his second NFL season and also working with new coaches other than quarterbacks coach T.C. McCartney, assistant QBs coach Evan Rothstein and senior assistant Ben McAdoo. -- Reiss

How desirable is the Patriots' head coach opening, and who are the front-runners?

The biggest issue for prospective candidates will be the lack of top-end roster talent with which to work. But the Patriots are set up to change that, with $130-plus million in cap space, a franchise quarterback to attract pass-catching free agents and plenty of draft capital. And New England can offer the mystique and tradition associated with six Super Bowls during the Belichick-Tom Brady era.

While I expect New England to conduct a wide-ranging search, you've got to think former Tennessee Titans coach and Patriots linebacker Mike Vrabel will at least be involved. It makes too much sense, given his ties there. And that has been the expectation among some inside the league in recent days, that, should the job open, he will be interested. But Vrabel will have other options, too. Another contender might be Vikings defensive coordinator and former Patriots assistant Brian Flores, who has reset his career in Minnesota with two successful years.

This is also a chance for New England to talk with offensive-minded candidates to maximize Maye's development. Tampa Bay offensive coordinator Liam Coen, considered one of the rising candidates, has several New England ties -- he grew up in Rhode Island, played at UMass and coached at Brown, UMass and Maine. -- Jeremy Fowler

What should the Patriots do with the No. 4 pick to help their new coach?

The Patriots' depth chart is in desperate need of repair and top-tier talent. With the No. 4 pick, New England has to focus on adding a blue-chip prospect in a draft class that is not rich in them.

The smart move is to identify the player who can best help Maye. That decision likely comes down to a wide receiver like Arizona's Tetairoa McMillan or Texas left tackle Kelvin Banks Jr. Now that the Patriots have been knocked out of the No. 1 pick, addressing offensive deficiencies in Round 1 is the play. Several teams have been in a similar position -- most recently the Cincinnati Bengals when deciding between Penei Sewell and Ja'Marr Chase in the 2021 draft -- and there's a leaguewide debate on how to best build a team. That said, good wide receivers can be found in Round 2. Premier left tackles are much harder to find. Banks should be the pick. -- Matt Miller

We're about a month out from the NBA's trade deadline on Feb. 6, and we've already seen a few teams make moves, as well as some superstar drama with a standoff between Jimmy Butler and the Miami Heat.

But what other major trade deadline storylines should we be watching? The era of the second apron is in full effect, and trade season has been relatively quiet compared to the past. But there is still room for teams to make some big splashes to help improve their rosters before the postseason.

New Orleans Pelicans forward Brandon Ingram and Chicago Bulls guard Zach LaVine are two of the bigger names expected to be available at the deadline, but what other major moves can we expect to be made in the next month?

Our NBA experts debate some of the biggest trade deadline questions, including whether the Los Angeles Lakers will make another move to address LeBron James' quest for another championship, and which teams in the East and West will have a new-look roster come February.

Which team needs to make a big trade splash to boost its standings?

Tim Bontemps: There's no shortage of options here, with the Minnesota Timberwolves being one of them. It felt like the Karl-Anthony Towns trade was a two-step move, and we're still waiting for the second move to happen. The Wolves, thanks in large part to Mike Conley looking his age, have been clunky offensively and could use another shot creator and ball handler. It'll be interesting to see whether they look different come Feb. 6.

Bobby Marks: The Sacramento Kings. The Kings changed their roster in the offseason, trading Harrison Barnes to San Antonio and acquiring DeMar DeRozan from the Bulls. The addition of DeRozan and re-signing of Malik Monk were supposed to boost a roster that won 46 games last season. Instead, Sacramento is on the outside of the play-in and fired coach Mike Brown. Because the Kings owe the Atlanta Hawks a top-12 protected first in 2025 and top-10 protected first in 2026 if not conveyed the prior season, the earliest Sacramento can trade a first is in 2028. Besides their draft assets, Sacramento has the $16.8 million contract of Kevin Huerter (he has $17.9 million owed in 2025-26) and $8 million expiring contract of Trey Lyles. Most recently, they have been linked to Brooklyn Nets forward Cameron Johnson.

Kevin Pelton: The Golden State Warriors have the best combination of ability to make a trade and take advantage of one. I'm not sure adding Jimmy Butler would make the Warriors championship contenders at this stage of Stephen Curry's career, but a consolidation trade for another All-Star would put Golden State in a strong position to claim a top-six seed in the West and potentially be favored in the first round of the playoffs.

Michael Wright: Moving Jimmy Butler won't necessarily boost Miami's standings, but it probably needs to jettison the star as soon as possible to prevent distractions that could cause the Heat to slip back in the East. They lost by 36 to the Utah Jazz in their first game after Butler was suspended for "conduct detrimental to the team." The suspension, which ends before a Jan. 19 matchup against the San Antonio Spurs, has raised constant speculation and questions regarding the forward. Given the limitations that accompany the current collective bargaining agreement, trading Butler will be difficult. But not moving him could end up tanking Miami's season.

Jamal Collier: The Warriors. After a fast start to the season, Golden State has been struggling for weeks and dipping in the standings. The Warriors have been chasing a star for some time now, and it's clear they need to find some help for Curry if they want to make it out of the play-in tournament, let alone make a deep playoff run. If not, teams will be more than comfortable sending double- and triple-teams at Curry while daring the rest of the Warriors' role players to beat them.

Which star (other than Jimmy Butler) is most likely to be moved at the deadline?

Wright: Brandon Ingram appears to be a major priority for the New Orleans Pelicans; he's in the final year of his contract, seeking more than the Pels can pay and in an environment in which the team faces future financial restrictions. Ingram has played in 65 games or more only once -- his rookie season -- and he's currently advancing through the rehab process to return from a sprained left ankle. Multiple teams are reportedly showing interest, but they'll likely wait to see how he looks returning from injury, and they'll want to be certain he's ready for the second half of the season.

Bontemps: This might not be a fun answer, but I'm going with no one. Every conversation I've had with scouts, executives, agents and league personnel for months has been centered around how stiff the trade market is due to the combination of money on teams' books, the lack of draft capital among contenders and, most importantly, the collective bargaining agreement coming fully online this season. Unless big salary players are being swapped for each other, it's hard to see a huge star making a move in the next month.

Pelton: A Brandon Ingram trade makes too much sense not to happen ... right? Ingram is heading toward unrestricted free agency on a team that now has the NBA's worst record. New Orleans can no longer afford to be picky about getting value for Ingram. Anything better than what the Pelicans could get this summer in a sign-and-trade would still be a win, given their payroll issues going forward.

Marks: As one GM told me after the Dorian Finney-Smith trade to the Lakers, expect more singles and doubles, less triples and home runs when it comes to transactions. As a result, Butler could be the lone All-Star-level player moved at the deadline, and even that is not a certainty. Besides the New Orleans Pelicans' Brandon Ingram, keep an eye on the Nets' Cameron Johnson. Although he is not considered a star player, Johnson is averaging a career high in points (19.3), field goal percentage (49.1%) and 3-point percentage (43.2%). His $22.5 million salary is less than half of Butler's.

Collier: Brandon Ingram. He was already a candidate to be traded before he hit unrestricted free agency this summer, and that was before the Pelicans' season turned into a disaster. Now with one of the league's worst records and in need of a shakeup, it makes sense for New Orleans to find Ingram a new team after contract extension talks have repeatedly fizzled, according to ESPN's Bobby Marks and Tim MacMahon.

Fact or fiction: The Lakers will make another trade before the deadline

Bontemps: Fact, though I'd suspect it's something along the lines of the Dorian Finney-Smith deal rather than something bigger. Again, it's hard for teams to stack up a bunch of money, making it hard for the Lakers to make a big swing, but they do have a couple of midsized deals that they could swing to get another solid player. Some of this, though, will likely depend on where the team sits in the standings in the next month, and whether LeBron James and Anthony Davis can remain healthy.

Wright: Fact. It won't be easy. But even after acquiring two-way wing Dorian Finney-Smith, the Lakers are reportedly still looking to add some frontcourt depth. It has been rumored that Los Angeles is hoping to land the Washington Wizards' Jonas Valanciunas as it still holds a couple of second-round picks as assets. But Washington's asking price might be too rich for the Lakers, which will surely have competition for Valanciunas' services. Luckily for the Lakers, Valanciunas isn't the only option, as multiple teams are shopping potential backup centers.

Marks: Fact. The Lakers added Dorian Finney-Smith at the cost of three second-round picks and still have the resources in draft picks (up to two firsts available) and financial flexibility ($3.5 million below the second apron) to continue improving the roster. With the emergence of forward Max Christie in the starting lineup, the priority in Los Angeles is acquiring a center who can complement Anthony Davis or back him up. The Lakers rank in the bottom five in points in the paint and second-chance points allowed.

Pelton: Fact. The Lakers have overwhelming financial incentive to trade away Christian Wood and cut their tax bill. Will they add a rotation player in a trade? It's a toss-up, though I'd lean more toward yes than no. The Lakers could still use an upgrade to their center depth, but if it costs them a first-round pick to improve marginally, they should wait to see what happens on the buyout market.

Collier: Fact. The expectations are always high in Los Angeles with an aging superstar in LeBron James and an improving Anthony Davis. Since their championship in 2020, the Lakers have struggled in the postseason and can't stand pat if they expect this team to remain in the top six in the West with aspirations of a deep playoff run.

The team in the East that will be most improved after the deadline is ____?

Bontemps: The Philadelphia 76ers, just because Daryl Morey has a history of being aggressive at the trade deadline to improve his team. The 76ers have several first-round picks to move and salary that they can package to add players. However, none of the teams at the top of the Eastern Conference have a ton of flexibility to make moves, so this answer could easily be the Nets, simply because of a successful teardown putting them in position to secure the highest possible lottery odds.

Marks: The Orlando Magic. The Magic could pass on the trade deadline and still be the most improved team on Feb. 6. Orlando has consistently remained in the top four of the Eastern Conference without starters Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner. Banchero was averaging 29 points per game before he suffered a torn right oblique in late October. Wagner averaged a career-high 23 points before also sustaining a torn right oblique in early December.

Wright: It has got to be the 76ers, given their win-now mentality, slow start and where they currently sit in the East standings with a president of basketball operations in Daryl Morey who will be looking to maximize the team's window for contention with Joel Embiid, Tyrese Maxey and Paul George. Philadelphia's roster is currently top-heavy, but it does own six second-round picks it can use in a trade to add size in the frontcourt.

Pelton: The Magic, because there are no trade additions who can possibly be as good as getting Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner back healthy. Orlando has slipped out of the race for a top-three seed in the East, where the Boston Celtics, Cleveland Cavaliers and New York Knicks have separated themselves from the pack. But I still like the Magic's chances of holding off a large group of contenders for fourth in the standings so long as Banchero returns before the end of January.

Collier: The Sixers. The biggest things they need in the second half of the season will be actually having Joel Embiid healthy and on the court. Philly is currently No. 11 in the East standings but is still only three games out of the No. 6 seed, something it can easily achieve if Embiid is healthy enough to take it there.

The team in the West that will be most improved after the deadline is ____?

Bontemps: The Houston Rockets if -- and it's a very big if -- they can add another reliable scoring option on the perimeter. But Houston is more likely to save its big chips for the offseason to make a much larger move. So I'll also make a speculative pick with the Dallas Mavericks, who have been aggressive under general manager Nico Harrison and will probably make a significant move between now and Feb. 6.

Marks: The Memphis Grizzlies. Before the Lakers came in at the last minute, the Grizzlies were positioned to acquire forward Dorian Finney-Smith from the Nets. The framework of the trade (Luke Kennard, John Konchar and a 2025 protected first) confirms that Memphis is not content with the second-best record in the Western Conference and will want to make some type of move for its frontcourt.

Pelton: The Sacramento Kings. Not only do I expect the Kings to upgrade via trade, they figure to improve simply with better fortune in close games. Sacramento's plus-1.3 differential ranks eighth in the West, yet the Kings are 12th in the standings in large part because they've lost a league-high 13 games that qualify as clutch per NBA Advanced Stats (game within five points at any point in the last five minutes).

Wright: It's a toss-up between the Warriors and Rockets because both own nice mixes of young players and draft assets to make deals. But let's go with the Warriors because they're currently in play-in territory as a "very mid [team] right now," according to Curry, with nowhere to go but up. Curry's comments sounded like a plea to general manager Mike Dunleavy, who has a maximum of three first-rounders and a pair of second-round picks available to trade.

Collier: The LA Clippers. Similar to the Sixers, they're also adding back into the mix a big piece with Kawhi Leonard, who made his season debut Saturday. The Clippers were able to stay afloat without him at 19-15 and are seventh in the West. Now they've got a chance to improve in a difficult conference and be well positioned heading into the playoffs if they can keep Leonard on the floor.

OTTAWA, Ontario -- Teddy Stiga scored on a breakaway at 8:04 of 3-on-3 overtime to give the United States a 4-3 victory over Finland on Sunday night in the world junior hockey championship game.

The Boston College winger collected a forward pass from Denver's Zeev Buium and beat goalie Petteri Rimpinen through the leg pads to end it.

It was his first goal of the tournament.

"I'm so happy for the kid," said U.S. captain Ryan Leonard, Stiga's teammate at BC. "He was scratched at the start and fought his way into the lineup. He's a hell of a player. You see why he's in the lineup at the end."

The Americans avenged a 4-3 overtime loss to Finland in group play, overcoming a two-goal deficit in the second period to win their second straight title and seventh overall.

"They had a better start," said Leonard, who had two assists and was named MVP of the championships. "There's no excuse there, but you saw the way we played in the last 10 minutes the second. The ice was tilted and they didn't really have the puck, and we tied it up. In the third, the puck didn't go in, but all the chances were there. We knew if we stuck to our game, good things would happen."

Boston University teammates Brandon Svoboda and Cole Hutson scored late in the second period to tie it. Svoboda cut it to 3-2 with 2:22 left on a deflected shot, and Hutson fired a wrist shot from the slot past Rimpinen with 29 seconds remaining.

Michigan State's Trey Augustine made 21 saves.

"They played really well, but we stuck with it," Augustine said. "We were down 3-1, which isn't ideal, but we capitalized in overtime. It's unbelievable. There's no better feeling. They took it to us in the first period, but the last 40 and overtime, we handled the play."

Tuomas Uronen gave Finland a 2-1 lead with 6:57 left in the first period, 59 seconds after Boston College's James Hagens tied it for the United States. Emil Pieniniemi made it 3-1 at 4:52 of the second.

Jesse Kiiskinen opened the scoring at 7:13.

In the third-place game, Eduard Sale scored in the 14th round of a shootout to give Czechia a 3-2 victory over Sweden. The Czech captain beat Marcus Gidlof on his fifth attempt -- and 28th between the teams -- with a move to the backhand.

The 2026 tournament will be in Minneapolis and St. Paul, Minnesota.

Information from The Associated Press was used in this report.

EAST RUTHERFORD, N.J. -- Miami Dolphins wide receiver Tyreek Hill hinted at a potential exit from the team after a season-ending loss Sunday to the New York Jets, during which he did not play in the final quarter.

Speaking to reporters in the locker room after the 32-20 loss, which officially eliminated the Dolphins from playoff contention, Hill expressed his frustration in missing the playoffs for the first time in his career. When asked for his message to the team as a captain, Hill offered a surprising response.

"I don't even know, bruh. This is my first time I haven't been in the playoffs," he said. "For me, I just have to do what's best for me and my family -- if that's here or wherever the case may be. I'm about to open up that door for myself ... I'm out, bruh. It was great playing here but at the end of the day, I have to do what's best for my career.

"I'm too much of a competitor to just be out there."

Hill and the Dolphins restructured his contract before the season began, bringing the total guaranteed money on his five-year contract to $106.5 million; he still has two years remaining on the extension he originally signed in 2022.

On social media, he offered a message to Dolphins fans.

"Love fin nation blessing yall opened doors for the Hill family forever," he wrote on X. "Nothing but respect and love."

After recording consecutive seasons with at least 1,700 yards and 119 catches in his first two years with the team, Hill turned in the worst season of his Dolphins tenure in 2024, finishing with 959 yards and six touchdowns on 81 catches. He recorded just two catches for 20 yards in Sunday's loss to New York -- his third game of the season with two or fewer catches after recording only two such games in 2022 and 2023 combined.

He remained sidelined during the Dolphins' final two possessions of the game; Dolphins coach Mike McDaniel told reporters after the game that Hill's absence was not injury-related.

"I was informed that he was unavailable right before a drive. I was not informed that it wasn't a new injury," McDaniel said. "And I think at that point in time, my focus was on the players and I didn't take the time to go try to figure out more into that, just if there was guys on the field that were competing. We were trying to win a game."

The Dolphins trailed by two scores at the time and scored a touchdown on the drive to cut their deficit to five points. However, the Jets responded with a touchdown on their ensuing possession to effectively seal the game.

McDaniel said he hadn't heard Hill's comments about a potential exit, and didn't want to respond to "secondhand" comments made in the wake of a disappointing loss. He also declined to provide an additional response to a team captain pulling himself out of a winnable game in the final quarter.

"It would be unfair for me to match emotion with emotion," McDaniel said. "Right after a game when your season ends, when you are fighting for it to extend and with the full belief that you have the ability for that to happen. I'm not going to make a rash judgment on something that, again, it's a little cloudy in the heat of the moment for multiple reasons. So, I know clarity will be found and you do move forward with conviction as a football team, and I'll look forward to having conversations with him this week."

Hill's comments punctuated a disappointing season for the Dolphins, who finished with a losing record and missed the playoffs for the first time in McDaniel's three seasons with the team. Miami needed to beat the Jets and for the Kansas City Chiefs to beat the Denver Broncos to clinch a playoff berth. The Broncos beat the Chiefs 38-0, and the video board at MetLife Stadium showed highlights of the game when Denver took a 21-0 lead in the first half.

Dolphins defensive lineman Calais Campbell said players were aware of the Broncos' score in real time, and realized they'd be playing "for the love of the game."

"You play the game the same way. But I'll be lying if I told you that we didn't notice it," Campbell said. "I personally noticed it and I know other guys did too. And does that affect the way he played? Maybe not. We'll never know for sure."

Despite the disappointing season, McDaniel, who signed a three-year extension prior to the start of the season, said his "full expectation" is for he and general manager Chris Grier to return to the Dolphins for the 2025 season.

Later Sunday, in thanking the players, coaches and fans for the season, the club posted a statement from owner Stephen Ross on X concurring with McDaniel, adding that "as we now look towards 2025, our football operation will continue to be led by Chris Grier and Mike McDaniel with my full support. Their positive working relationship is an asset to the Dolphins, and I believe in the value of stability."

DETROIT -- Jahmyr Gibbs scored three of his franchise-record-tying four touchdowns in the second half, and the Detroit Lions beat the Minnesota Vikings 31-9 on Sunday night to win their second straight NFC North title and earn home-field advantage until the Super Bowl.

"Everybody's got to come through here, baby!" Detroit defensive end Za'Darius Smith said to the roaring crowd after the game.

The Lions (15-2) and Vikings (14-3) could meet again in two weeks.

Detroit will have a much-needed bye for its banged-up team during the first week of the playoffs while Minnesota plays at the NFC West champion Los Angeles Rams next Monday night. The Vikings opened as -2.5 favorites, per ESPN BET.

In the NFL's final game before the playoffs, two teams played in the regular season with a combined 28 victories for the first time. A No. 1 seed was determined in a regular-season finale for the third time in three-plus decades.

Dallas wrapped up the 1993 regular season against the New York Giants with a 16-13 overtime win to give the Cowboys top seeding they used to their advantage as they advanced to and won the Super Bowl. The Giants, meanwhile, beat Minnesota in the wild-card round and were routed at San Francisco the following week.

Detroit desperately hopes history repeats itself. The Lions are seeking their first Super Bowl appearance and hoping to end an NFL championship drought that dates to 1957. They are a No. 1 seed for the first time in franchise history.

"It's not the cherry on top," quarterback Jared Goff said. "Not yet."

Game No. 272 of the regular season was expected to be a shootout with Pro Bowl quarterbacks leading high-scoring offenses, but Goff and Sam Darnold were not at their best.

Gibbs picked up the slack for his team.

He had 23 carries for 139 yards with a career-high three rushing touchdowns and caught five passes for 31 yards and another score. He became the first Lions player to lead the NFL in scrimmage touchdowns (20) since Barry Sanders in 1991 (17).

"He's as explosive as any player in the league," Minnesota coach Kevin O'Connell said.

Goff threw two interceptions after tossing only one in the previous seven games and Minnesota made field goals after the turnovers in the second and third quarters.

After Vikings rookie Will Reichard connected on his third kick to cut the deficit to 10-9 early in the third, Goff directed a 13-play, 70-yard drive that took 7:25 and was capped by a slick pass to Gibbs for a 10-yard touchdown on fourth-and-2.

Goff was 8-of-8 on that possession and finished 27-of-33 for 231 yards with a touchdown and two interceptions.

Darnold completed fewer than half of his passes in the first half, missing opportunities to pick up first downs and score touchdowns. The Vikings were 0-of-3 in the red zone through two quarters, and the Lions led 10-6 at halftime.

The Vikings went for it on fourth down from the Lions' 3 in the second quarter and Darnold, under pressure, overthrew an open Justin Jefferson in the end zone.

Darnold threw another incomplete pass on fourth down from the Detroit 2 early in the third.

"Kicking field goals isn't going to get it done against that team," Darnold said. "I have to hit those throws."

Minnesota coach Kevin O'Connell opted to attempt a 51-yard field goal late in the third, trailing by eight, and Reichard missed wide right.

Darnold was 18-of-41, a season-low 44% completion rate, and connected with Jefferson just three times on nine targets for 54 yards. The Lions blitzed him on 56% of his dropbacks, the highest blitz percentage in any game of his career.

Overall, Darnold was off target on 34% of his throws, the second highest such percentage in a game in his career. His only game with a worse percentage was the "Seeing Ghosts" game when his Jets played the Patriots in Week 7 of 2019 (48%).

"We didn't do a lot of the things we did well this season," O'Connell said. "Sam has hit a lot of those plays all year and I have every bit of confidence that he will hit it the next time."

Information from ESPN Research and The Associated Press was used in this report.

The 2024 NFL playoffs are here, and the No. 1 seeds in each conference -- the Chiefs in the AFC and the Lions in the NFC -- will receive first-round byes. The remaining 12 teams will play in next weekend's three-day wild-card round. Two games will be played Saturday; three are slated for Sunday; and the action will culminate in a Monday night contest that will be broadcast by ESPN/ABC.

Which teams are ready for deep playoff runs? Which ones have concerns that might impact their wild-card weekend matchups? And which players could play big parts in their teams getting to the Super Bowl?

Here's what each of the 14 playoff teams must do to reach Super Bowl LIX on Feb. 9 at Caesars Superdome in New Orleans. Our NFL Nation team reporters picked out strengths and weaknesses for each franchise, and analytics writer Seth Walder identified a key stat to know for each club. Then Ben Solak gave his personal heat check (rating from 1 to 10) for each playoff squad. (Odds are via ESPN BET.)

AFC:
1. Chiefs
2. Bills vs. 7. Broncos
3. Ravens vs. 6. Steelers
4. Texans vs. 5. Chargers

NFC:
1. Lions
2. Eagles vs. 7. Packers
3. Buccaneers vs. 6. Commanders
4. Rams vs. 5. Vikings

AFC

1. Kansas City Chiefs (15-2)

Odds to win Super Bowl: +350
FPI chance to make Super Bowl: 31.7%

First game outlook: The Chiefs get the AFC's top seed for the second time in three seasons and for the fifth time since Patrick Mahomes became the starting quarterback. They will play in the divisional round against the lowest-seeded wild-card team remaining (the No. 4 Texans, No. 5 Chargers, No. 6 Steelers or No. 7 Broncos) on either Saturday, Jan. 18, or Sunday, Jan. 19. The Chiefs have a combined 5-1 record against those teams, sweeping both games with the Chargers, beating both Houston and Pittsburgh in a stretch from Dec. 21-25 and splitting two games with the Broncos. -- ESPN

Reason for hope: A revitalized offense. The return of receiver Hollywood Brown, the development of rookie wideout Xavier Worthy and All-Pro guard Joe Thuney's play at left tackle has the offense looking like the Chiefs hoped it would all season. Kansas City played two of its best offensive games of the season in Weeks 16 and 17, its last regular-season games with quarterback Patrick Mahomes and the starters. "We built up to the perfect spot," Mahomes said. "We've gotten better and better before Hollywood got here. Xavier started playing better, being more confident ... it kind of sets everybody perfectly in their roles."

Reason for concern: Pass protection. The protection has improved since Thuney moved from left guard to left tackle, but Mahomes was still sacked 36 times this season, the most he has ever taken. The Chiefs are still struggling to generate big pass plays due to Mahomes being forced to throw the ball quickly. Right tackle Jawaan Taylor is the third-most penalized player in the league with 17 penalties, and those penalties have been something the Chiefs have struggled to overcome this season. -- Adam Teicher

Stat to know: Chris Jones recorded 62 pass rush wins this season, the most by a defensive tackle. It's actually the most by a lot. The Broncos' Zach Allen finished with 52, while the Seahawks' Leonard Williams finished third with 40. I bring this up because it has been a quiet season for Jones on the sack front (only five), but make no mistake, the Chiefs still have a game-wrecker at defensive tackle who could make a huge difference in the playoffs. -- Walder

Heat check rating: 10. The Chiefs proved their immortality time and time again this season, and they enter the postseason with a first-round bye, home-field advantage and a healthy Brown and Isiah Pacheco. How could this not be a 10? -- Solak

2. Buffalo Bills (13-4)

Odds to win Super Bowl: +475
FPI chance to make Super Bowl: 21.8%

First game outlook: The Bills will start their sixth straight postseason by hosting the No. 7-seeded Broncos on Sunday (1 p.m. ET, CBS). Buffalo did not play the Broncos this season, with their last meeting with Denver resulting in 24-22 Monday night loss at home in Week 10 of the 2023 season. That game ended with the Broncos kicking a walk-off field goal after the Bills were penalized for 12 men on the field on a game-winning miss the previous play. -- ESPN

Reason for hope: Quarterback Josh Allen. The favorite for MVP put together his best regular season to date and has historically thrived in the postseason. Allen led the Bills' offense to 12 games scoring 30 points or more this season, and Buffalo has committed only eight turnovers, tied with the 2019 Saints for the fewest in a season since 1933. "I don't like to make comparisons; I played with Peyton Manning and Matthew Stafford. Those guys are special in their own right," defensive end Von Miller said. "But this year, Josh is just doing something totally different, and he's not forcing it. He's not trying too hard, he's not looking for it; it's just him."

Reason for concern: Third-down defense. The Bills' defense has been inconsistent this season and has allowed the fourth-highest third-down conversion percentage in the NFL (43.8%). The Bills won't be able to primarily rely on forcing turnovers against the strong offenses they will face in the AFC playoffs. Buffalo must be able to get off the field on third down. -- Alaina Getzenberg

Stat to know: Allen has the lowest sack rate (2.6%), fourth-lowest interception rate (1.1%) and fifth-lowest fumble rate (0.8%) among QBR-qualified quarterbacks. When we think of Allen, we often think of huge runs (he is second to Jayden Daniels among quarterbacks in EPA on designed carries and scrambles) and his elite arm. But perhaps his best skill is avoiding mistakes and negative plays. It's a huge part of why he's exceptional and, possibly, the NFL MVP. -- Walder

Heat check rating: 8. The Bills didn't have much to play for in Week 18, but they ended the season winning 10 of their last 12 games and with arguably the best offense in football. They feel deservedly great entering the postseason. -- Solak

3. Baltimore Ravens (12-5)

Odds to win Super Bowl: +550
FPI chance to make Super Bowl: 25.9%

First game outlook: The Ravens will play a rubber match against the AFC North rival Steelers in Baltimore on Saturday (8 p.m. ET, Prime Video). They split their two regular-season meetings, as the Steelers won 18-16 in Pittsburgh in Week 11 and the Ravens won the rematch 34-17 in Baltimore in Week 16 to take the AFC North lead for good. -- ESPN

Reason for hope: The Ravens have been playing their best ball at the end of the season. They won their final four games, outscoring opponents 135-43 in a stretch that included victories over the playoff-bound Steelers and Texans. While quarterback Lamar Jackson and the NFL's No. 1 offense get the headlines, Baltimore's defense has held teams to a league-low 15.4 points per game over the past seven weeks. "Our plan now is to peak at the right time," cornerback Marlon Humphrey said, "and I feel like we're doing that."

Reason for concern: Jackson's surprisingly poor playoff track record. He is the only quarterback with multiple MVPs who hasn't captured a Super Bowl title. Jackson has a 2-4 postseason record, throwing six interceptions and losing three fumbles. In his four playoff losses, the Ravens have averaged only 10.5 points and haven't exceed the 20-point mark. "The story's still being written," coach John Harbaugh said of Jackson, "and there's a lot more to accomplish." -- Jamison Hensley

Stat to know: In Weeks 1-10, the Ravens ranked 29th in EPA allowed per opponent dropback (0.15). But in Weeks 11-18, they ranked first (minus-0.15) in the same category. I'm stealing this observation from Solak, but the Ravens have employed Kyle Hamilton as a safety on 69.3% of his snaps since Week 11. Before that, he split time among safety, slot corner and linebacker, playing safety on only 26% of his snaps. That likely isn't the only factor, but the numbers say it matters. Baltimore has been better when Hamilton is aligned at safety than when he isn't. -- Walder

Heat check rating: 9. Jackson made a great December MVP push, the defense has been excellent since the secondary reshuffling, and the Ravens won the AFC North over Pittsburgh. If not for the Zay Flowers injury, this would be a perfect 10. -- Solak

4. Houston Texans (10-7)

Odds to win Super Bowl: +6000
FPI chance to make Super Bowl: 5.7%

First game outlook: The Texans made the playoffs for the second straight season and will host the No. 5-seeded Chargers on Saturday (4:30 p.m. ET, CBS). This is the eighth time since 2011 that the Texans have hosted a game on wild-card weekend. Houston is 5-2 in those games, most recently defeating the Browns 45-14 last season. -- ESPN

Reason for hope: The defense. Houston's D has held opposing quarterbacks to a QBR of 54.7, the seventh-lowest in the NFL. The Texans put relentless pressure on quarterbacks leading to 49 sacks, tied for fourth in the league. Danielle Hunter is tied for fifth in the league with 12 sacks, and second-year edge rusher Will Anderson Jr. has 11. The unit also has Pro Bowl cornerback Derek Stingley Jr. and rookie safety Calen Bullock, who are tied for sixth in the NFL with five interceptions.

Reason for concern: Offensive inconsistency. The Texans' offense is 18th in scoring (20.5 offensive points per game), so if the defense isn't locking opponents down, Houston could be in trouble. One look that has given quarterback C.J. Stroud issues is split-safety coverage, as he has a 36.0 QBR against split safeties (28th in the NFL). The offensive line hasn't exactly helped its quarterback, as Stroud has been pressured 35.8% of the time this season, fourth highest in the NFL. -- DJ Bien-Aime

Stat to know: The Texans rank 24th in EPA per play since Week 10. Anyone watching the NFL this season knows that Houston has struggled on offense. But struggle is putting it too mildly. The Texans have been bad. In fact, the passing game has been down so much in that span that it has a worse EPA per play rank than the running game. And that's another thing everyone knows about Houston -- it can't run the ball! -- Walder

Heat check rating: 5. The Texans didn't have the regular season they expected, but beating up on the Titans sure is a nice way to end things. So long as they have Stroud, Nico Collins and that pass rush, they have a chance. -- Solak

5. Los Angeles Chargers (11-6)

Odds to win Super Bowl: +2500
FPI chance to make Super Bowl: 7.7%

First game outlook: The Chargers are in the playoffs for the second time in the past three seasons and will play at Houston on Saturday (4:30 p.m. ET, CBS). The Chargers have never played the Texans in the playoffs and are making only their fourth playoff appearance since 2010. Los Angeles' last playoff game didn't go well, as it squandered a 27-0 first-half lead and lost 31-30 to the Jaguars on a walk-off field goal in the 2022 wild-card round. -- ESPN

Reason for hope: Jim Harbaugh. In Harbaugh's previous NFL coaching stint, the 49ers made three NFC Championship Games and one Super Bowl in four seasons. By comparison, the Chargers as a franchise have played in only four conference championships, the most recent coming during the 2007 season, and one Super Bowl. Harbaugh's previous playoff success, plus the turnaround he has engineered in getting a team that was 5-12 in 2023 into the postseason, gives L.A. hope.

Reason for concern: Inconsistent offense. Offense has been the Chargers' Achilles' heel all season, particularly in the second half of games. The Bolts average 10.3 second-half points, ranking 19th in the league. L.A.'s league-leading scoring defense has helped mask the offense's second-half disappearing act, but a continuation could knock the Chargers out of the playoffs quickly. -- Kris Rhim

Stat to know: The Chargers rank in the top six in EPA allowed per designed run play and per dropback. It's particularly impressive because they've done it without an amazing pass rush -- they rank 22nd in pass rush win rate. L.A.'s reasonably high 7.1% sack rate is probably more a function of an impressive secondary. Derwin James Jr. has the lowest yards per coverage snap allowed (0.5) among players with 200 coverage snaps and primarily lines up as a slot corner -- but outside corner Kristian Fulton and rookies Tarheeb Still and Cam Hart have been solid, too. -- Walder

Heat check rating: 5. The decline of the defense has turned the Chargers from AFC playoff spoiler to likely one-and-done, but the Justin Herbert-Ladd McConkey connection is a fun one. Mixed vibes here. -- Solak

6. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7)

Odds to win Super Bowl: +7500
FPI chance to make Super Bowl: 3.8%

First game outlook: The Steelers will play at the rival Ravens, facing No. 3-seed Baltimore on Saturday in the wild-card round (8 p.m. ET, Prime Video). Pittsburgh is 3-1 against the Ravens in the playoffs but lost the most recent meeting in the 2014 wild-card round. The Steelers enter this matchup on five-game playoff losing streak dating to a divisional round victory over the Chiefs in the 2016 playoffs. -- ESPN

Reason for hope: Russell Wilson. Despite a recent string of red zone turnovers, Wilson gives the offense the kind of juice it has consistently lacked since Ben Roethlisberger's 2019 elbow injury. In 11 starts, Wilson has completed 19 of 41 attempts of more than 20 air yards for four touchdowns and one interception. A year ago, three Steelers quarterbacks combined to complete only 15 of 52 attempts on such passes for four touchdowns and six interceptions.

Reason for concern: Defensive lapses. Missed assignments and communication shortcomings have contributed to the defense, typically one of the stingiest units in the league, giving up an average of 380.5 yards and 27.3 points during Pittsburgh's four-game late-season slide. The Steelers are tied for the NFL lead with 33 takeaways, but they managed only five during their losing streak after forcing three in each of the prior four contests. -- Brooke Pryor

Stat to know: With wide receiver George Pickens on the field, the Steelers averaged 0.07 EPA per dropback this season. Without him, that number dropped to minus-0.06. For context, the first number is roughly equivalent to the Rams' passing offense with Matthew Stafford. The latter is the Cowboys, who have started Cooper Rush in nearly half their games. On-off splits can be misleading, but I think Pickens' impact is pretty clear. He allows downfield throws from Wilson -- Pittsburgh's average depth of target is 7.1 yards with Pickens on field, 6.0 without him -- which the Steelers will need to have postseason success. -- Walder

Heat check rating: 1. The Steelers limp into the postseason on a four-game losing streak with a banged-up T.J. Watt, continued Pickens drama and lingering uncertainty as to who the cornerback starter is opposite Joey Porter Jr. That's discouraging stuff. -- Solak

7. Denver Broncos (10-7)

Odds to win Super Bowl: +6000
FPI chance to make Super Bowl: 3.4%

First game outlook: The Broncos' first playoff game since winning Super Bowl 50 will come on Sunday (1 p.m. ET, CBS), when they head to Buffalo to face the No. 2-seeded Bills. The Broncos haven't played Buffalo in the playoffs since the 1991 season, when the Jim Kelly-led Bills defeated the John Elway-led Broncos 10-7 en route to Super Bowl XXVI. Denver has lost four straight road playoff games dating to a victory at Pittsburgh in the 1997 AFC Championship Game. -- ESPN

Reason for hope: Defense. Even with some recent bobbles -- they gave up 27.3 points per game from Weeks 13 through 17 before shutting out the Chiefs on Sunday -- the Broncos are third in the league in overall defensive efficiency, first in expected points added on defense, first in sacks and third in scoring defense. Denver has scored five touchdowns and two safeties on defense this season. Getting back cornerback Riley Moss, who missed Weeks 13 through 16 with a knee injury, to stabilize the corner position opposite Pro Bowler Pat Surtain II should help.

Reason for concern: Three-and-outs. The Broncos' offense has the third-highest percentage of drives that have ended in a three-and-out this season -- a whopping 26.3%. The short possessions have resulted in lost momentum and an inability to prevent opponents from flipping field position. The Bo Nix-led offense has also put Denver's defense in compromising positions, forcing it to return to action quickly. Denver averages 29:46 in possession, 20th in the league. -- Jeff Legwold

Stat to know: The Broncos play more man coverage than any other team (56%) and let Surtain -- who has the lowest yards per coverage snap (0.6) among outside corners, per NFL Next Gen Stats -- take away one side of the field. Surtain achieved his success through target deterrence -- his 11% target rate is the third lowest among outside corners with at least 200 coverage snaps -- and ball-hawking (four interceptions). The Broncos occasionally stick Surtain on the opponent's best receiver. In Week 17, Surtain lined up opposite Ja'Marr Chase 77% of the time. Surtain held the NFL's leading receiver to 27 yards as the primary defender, per Next Gen Stats. -- Walder

Heat check rating: 7. Denver's arrow has been steadily pointing up all season, and the Broncos enter the postseason with a great defense and diverse offense. The ceiling is low with a rookie quarterback at the helm, but the vibes are good. -- Solak

NFC

1. Detroit Lions (15-2)

Odds to win Super Bowl: +450
FPI chance to make Super Bowl: 40.3%

First game outlook: The Lions are the NFC's No. 1 seed for the first time in franchise history and will host the lowest-seeded wild-card winner (No. 4 Rams, No. 5 Vikings, No. 6 Commanders and No. 7 Packers) in the divisional round on Saturday, Jan. 18, or Sunday, Jan. 19. Detroit hasn't played Washington yet but is 5-0 against the other three opponents, sweeping two games against Minnesota and Green Bay and beating the Rams in overtime in the season opener. -- ESPN

Reason for hope: The offense. The Lions can overwhelm opposing defenses with a variety of options. Veteran QB Jared Goff has been on top of his game, earning starting quarterback honors for the upcoming Pro Bowl. Running backs David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs, along with receivers Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams, made the Lions the first team in NFL history to have two running backs and two receivers who each topped 1,000 scrimmage yards in a single season. Montgomery's status is up in the air after suffering a Week 15 knee injury, though.

Reason for concern: An injury-riddled defense. When healthy, the Lions have been dominant at times. But a slew of injuries to key players such as edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson, defensive tackle Alim McNeill and cornerback Carlton Davis III has taken a toll. Corner Terrion Arnold was also hurt in Week 18. The Lions have been able to compensate in the regular season, beating the 49ers 40-34 in Week 17 despite giving up 475 yards, but they also gave up 559 yards to the Bills in a 48-42 loss in Week 15. Can they win shootouts against playoff-caliber competition? -- Eric Woodyard

Stat to know: Since Week 7 (their first game after Hutchinson's injury), the Lions have blitzed 41% of the time prior to Sunday night's game, highest in the NFL. It's their solution for having no real pass rush without Hutchinson, and to help make up for all the injuries the defense has faced. They'll almost certainly have to rely on the blitz in the postseason, too, because their splits with and without the blitz are dramatic. Since Hutchinson's injury, Detroit's defense ranks third in EPA allowed per dropback when blitzing prior to Sunday night. It drops to 27th when not blitzing. -- Walder

Heat check rating: 8. The heat check can't be too high given the defensive worries, but a home win over a divisional rival to secure the first-round bye and home-field advantage? That's quite the springboard into the postseason. -- Solak

2. Philadelphia Eagles (14-3)

Odds to win Super Bowl: +650
FPI chance to make Super Bowl: 15.5%

First game outlook: The Eagles get a rematch of their season opener, as they will host the No. 7-seeded Packers in the wild-card round on Sunday (4:30 p.m. ET, Fox). Philadelphia won the initial meeting 34-29 in Sao Paulo, Brazil, thanks to 109 yards and two touchdowns from running back Saquon Barkley in his Eagles debut. The Eagles haven't won a playoff game since beating the 49ers in the NFC Championship Game following the 2022 season. -- ESPN

Reason for hope: Elite personnel. The Eagles boast arguably the best roster in football, which includes a top-tier offensive line, MVP contender and 2,000-yard rusher Barkley, a dynamic receiver duo in A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith and a highly-ranked defense. It's not only a talented group but a physical one, giving it a real chance to plow its way into the Super Bowl.

Reason for concern: Slow starts. The Eagles failed to score in the first quarter of their first seven games and 10 times overall during the regular season. Philadelphia improved in that area down the stretch but still ranked 21st in opening-quarter points (3.7). Falling behind against good teams in the playoffs could prove costly. -- Tim McManus

Stat to know: Prior to resting their starters in Week 18 the Eagles ranked first in both EPA per designed carry on offense and EPA allowed per designed carry on defense. Philadelphia dominates in the ground game on both sides of the ball. On offense, rush yards over expectation runner-up Barkley (plus-549) and quarterback Jalen Hurts (including all those tush push conversions) lead the way. On defense, linebackers Nakobe Dean and Zack Baun both rank in the top seven among linebackers in run stop win rate. -- Walder

Heat check rating: 8. Everything is rosy in Philadelphia, so long as Hurts is ready to come out of the concussion protocol and play next week. And if he can't, Tanner McKee probably has a playoff win in him. -- Solak

3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10-7)

Odds to win Super Bowl: +3000
FPI chance to make Super Bowl: 11.1%

First game outlook: The Buccaneers made the playoffs for the fifth straight season and will start by hosting the No. 6-seeded Commanders on Sunday (8 p.m. ET, Fox). This is another rematch of a season opener, as Tampa Bay cruised past Washington 37-20 at Raymond James Stadium. This is the fourth straight year the Bucs have hosted a wild-card game, as they beat the Eagles 32-9 in this spot last season. -- ESPN

Reason for hope: A versatile, high-powered offense. The Bucs are averaging 28.6 offensive points -- fourth most in the league and third most in franchise history, trailing only the Tom Brady-led Super Bowl team in 2020 and another Brady-led team in 2021. Quarterback Baker Mayfield has 41 touchdown passes, tied for second in the NFL. Mayfield also has the third-highest completion percentage (71.4%) and third-most passing yards (4,500). And Tampa Bay is averaging 149.2 rushing yards, the fourth most in the league.

Reason for concern: The defense has struggled with health and consistency. It has rarely had a healthy squad this season, especially in the secondary. While the Buccaneers have given up only 17.0 points per game since their Week 11 bye -- second best in the league -- only one of those opponents had a winning record. Over the course of the season, Tampa Bay has allowed 249.3 passing yards per game, the fourth most in the league. -- Jenna Laine

Stat to know: The Buccaneers recorded more YAC over expectation (plus-498) than any other team this season, per NFL Next Gen Stats. NGS outputs an expected number of yards after the catch based on the positioning, speed and direction of all 22 players on the field when the catch is made. And the Bucs have four players with at least 90 YAC over expectation: RB Bucky Irving (123), WR Chris Godwin (112), RB Rachaad White (99) and TE Cade Otton (90). YAC accounted for 54% of Tampa Bay's receiving yards, the seventh most in the league. -- Walder

Heat check rating: 2. It took a much larger effort to beat the Saints in Week 18 than expected, and that pass defense is the culprit -- but Mayfield had another shaky game, too. The Buccaneers are in the big dance by the skin of their teeth. -- Solak

4. Los Angeles Rams (10-7)

Odds to win Super Bowl: +3500
FPI chance to make Super Bowl: 5.9%

First game outlook: The Rams will make their second straight playoff appearance and sixth in Sean McVay's eight seasons as head coach when they host the Vikings on Monday (8 p.m. ET, ABC/ESPN/ESPN+). Los Angeles gave the Vikings one of their three losses this season, defeating Minnesota 30-20 in Week 7 at SoFi Stadium. -- ESPN

Reason for hope: Drastic defensive improvement. The Rams' defense gave up two touchdowns in Weeks 15 through 17 as it made a playoff push after a 1-4 start. After allowing an average of 23.6 points in its first 13 games, Los Angeles allowed 24 total in the three games prior to clinching the NFC West. A big reason for the improvement is the play of its defensive front, including first-round pick Jared Verse, who was named to the Pro Bowl as the Rams' lone representative.

Reason for concern: An extremely inconsistent offense. After scoring 44 points against the Bills in Week 14, the Rams' offense scored that combined total in Weeks 15 through 17. Los Angeles has especially struggled in the first quarter this season, failing to score a touchdown in 13 of its 16 games in which quarterback Matthew Stafford and the starting offense played. The Rams have averaged 21.6 points per game this season, good for only 20th in the NFL. -- Sarah Barshop

Stat to know: Wide receiver Puka Nacua has a 40% target rate. Nacua is in the midst of a historic season ... but since he missed six games, the totals aren't gaudy. But the fact he gets the ball thrown to him 40% of the time he runs a route is ridiculous. That's the highest target rate for a player with at least 200 routes run in a season since at least 2007 -- as far back as ESPN's route data extends. Nacua's 3.7 yards per route run rank third in that span (behind Tyreek Hill in 2023 and Steve Smith Sr. in 2008), too. -- Walder

Heat check rating: 4. The last competitive games we saw the Rams play were 12-point, 19-point and 13-point outings against non-elite defensives -- so I'm worried. But they were all wins with good defensive performances from Chris Shula's young group -- so I'm not too worried. -- Solak

5. Minnesota Vikings (14-3)

Odds to win Super Bowl: +800
FPI chance to make Super Bowl: 10.1%

First game outlook: The Vikings will play at the Rams in the wild-card round on Monday (8 p.m. ET, ABC/ESPN/ESPN+) after falling to the Lions on Sunday night. The only non-Detroit loss the Vikings have suffered this season came at SoFi Stadium, as the Rams defeated Minnesota 30-20 in Week 7. These teams haven't played in the postseason since the 1999 divisional round, when the then-St. Louis Rams outscored the Vikings 49-37 on their way to a Super Bowl crown. -- ESPN

Reason for hope: Balance. The Vikings can win in a variety of ways, as their offense and defense each rank among the NFL's top 10 in scoring. That increases the number of pathways they can travel to a playoff win. It could come via a big passing day from quarterback Sam Darnold to receivers Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison. Or the defense could carry the team with a series of well-timed takeaways, after tying for first in the league with 33. In other words, it would take an all-22 effort from an opponent to knock Minnesota from the postseason.

Reason for concern: The Vikings are 9-1 in one-score games for several reasons, including well-timed field goals from Will Reichard and John Parker Romo, who served as a four-game injury replacement. Reichard opened the season by converting his first 14 field goal attempts before suffering a quadriceps injury. Since then, Reichard has made 10 of 16 kicks. The Vikings still have full confidence in Reichard and don't believe that he is having any lingering effects from his injury. But taking a rookie kicker into the playoffs can be nerve-wracking, especially when he enters the postseason in a bit of a slump. -- Kevin Seifert

Stat to know: Prior to Sunday night, Darnold had a 4.8% completion percentage over expectation, per NFL Next Gen Stats, second highest among quarterbacks. That number represents a dramatic improvement. Entering this season, Darnold had a minus-2.0% career completion percentage over expectation. Some of the change can likely be attributed to his strong wide receivers, but it's also a representation of better accuracy. Darnold's off-target rate dropped from 18% before this season to 12% in 2024, despite throwing slightly deeper passes this season compared to his past. -- Walder

Heat check rating: 7. The Vikings could have carried a perfect 10 had they beaten the Lions on Sunday night, but this is still an excellent team on both sides of the ball. Few teams have won three straight playoff games on the road, but if anyone can do it, I'd back these Vikings. -- Solak

6. Washington Commanders (12-5)

Odds to win Super Bowl: +3000
FPI chance to make Super Bowl: 5.3%

First game outlook: The Commanders return to the playoffs for the first time since 2020 when they play at the No. 3-seeded Buccaneers on Sunday (8 p.m. ET, Peacock). Tampa Bay was also Washington's opponent the last time the franchise made the postseason, as the Tom Brady-led Buccaneers defeated the then-Washington Football Team in the wild-card round en route to a Super Bowl title. Washington is 1-2 against the Buccaneers in the playoffs. -- ESPN

Reason for hope: Quarterback Jayden Daniels. He won't win the MVP, but few players have been more valuable to their team. Daniels has thrown for 3,568 yards and 25 touchdowns and rushed for 864 yards and six more scores. He has a knack for big plays at the right time and has led four game-winning drives, with three touchdown passes coming on the final play from scrimmage. Daniels ranks second in the NFL with 12 touchdown passes in the fourth quarter and overtime.

Reason for concern: The run defense. Washington has the lowest-ranked run defense of any playoff team and only two teams, playoff or otherwise, were worse this season. Only two allowed more yards per carry than the Commanders (4.8), too. Washington has fared better of late, holding Saquon Barkley and Bijan Robinson to a combined 20 carries and 35 yards in the second half during Weeks 16 and 17. But if a team with a top quarterback is also able to run on the Commanders, it will be tough for Washington to advance. -- John Keim

Stat to know: Daniels recorded 59 total EPA on designed runs and scrambles. That's more than any other player this season and shows just how important Daniels' rushing production has been to the Commanders. Twenty-six percent of Washington's third- and fourth-down conversions this season have come via QB run, which ranks third in the league behind the Eagles and Bills. But when you take away plays with one yard to go, the Commanders have used the quarterback run to convert 22% of their third and fourth downs, the highest mark in the NFL -- Walder

Heat check rating: 3. Save for the last-second win over the Eagles in Week 16, the back half of the season has largely been shaky for the Commanders, and the Week 18 first-half flop from the starting offense against Dallas does little to assuage concerns. -- Solak

7. Green Bay Packers (11-6)

Odds to win Super Bowl: +1600
FPI chance to make Super Bowl: 11.9%

First game outlook: The Packers get a chance to settle the score from their Brazilian season opener, as they will head to Philadelphia to play at the Eagles on Sunday (4:30 p.m. ET, Fox). The Packers were in a similar position last season, as they upset the NFC East champion Cowboys as the No. 7 seed in the wild-card round. Green Bay also won its last playoff meeting between the teams, winning in Philadelphia in the 2010 wild-card en route to the Super Bowl XLV title. -- ESPN

Reason for hope: The Packers do two things extremely well -- run the ball and force turnovers. The Packers are ranked in the top five in both categories -- rushing yards per game (146.8) and total takeaways (31). They have relied heavily on Pro Bowl running back Josh Jacobs to carry the load (1,329 rushing yards) and have one of the NFL's interception leaders in safety Xavier McKinney (seven). That's a good combination for playoff success.

Reason for concern: The Packers haven't beaten many of the NFC's playoff teams. They're a combined 0-5 against the Eagles, Lions and Vikings. Their best win came at the NFC West champion Rams, but that was back in Week 5 when the Rams were riddled with injuries, especially on offense. "There's a margin of error that is razor thin," Packers coach Matt LaFleur said, "and when you're playing good teams, you got to be better." -- Rob Demovsky

Stat to know: Jordan Love ranks fifth in QBR with a 68.7. It has been a quiet climb for Love's efficiency on a Packers team that has leaned on the ground game this season. But after beginning the season with six consecutive games with at least one interception, Love hasn't thrown one in the past seven. Since Week 12, Love has the highest QBR (83.0) in the NFL. It's similar to last season, when Love also had the highest QBR in the league from Week 12 on. -- Walder

Heat check rating: 2. Green Bay was right to play for the sixth seed in Week 18, but leaving the game with injuries to Christian Watson and Love is worrisome. Scary times in Green Bay until we get more news. -- Solak