He appears locked in to line up in the World Test Championship final against India at The Oval in early June, but how much he features after that, including the Ashes, is less certain.
"We're three formats across all of those contracts. Trying to fit that in is first and foremost, the job," Bailey said. "But I think Dave, like any player is, is at the mercy of selection.
"The Ashes is a huge series. And we'll be looking to pick our best team. We're going to have to have our best team playing incredibly well too, to challenge England over there the way they're playing."
Bailey endorsed comments from head coach Andrew McDonald at the end of the India tour which stopped short of cementing Warner in for the Ashes.
"The point Andrew was making is that it's a different team, different way of playing," Bailey said of the WTC final. "So I support Andrew's comments on that around David."
Has Warner's double century bought him time?
Although Warner scored a brilliant double century against South Africa just four Tests ago, it is an outlier in his form over the last three years where he averages 29.48. The spectre of the 2019 Ashes, where he averaged 9.50, also hangs over him.
"I've always said I'm playing to 2024; if the selectors feel that I'm not worthy of my spot, then so be it, and I can push on to the white-ball stuff," he said in February.
Another intriguing element to how Warner's Test career pans out is the way in which Australia's Ashes squad will be selected. The tour is effectively being split into two blocks of three matches - the first including the WTC final for which a trimmed group of 15 players will need to be named in late May - with the selectors then reassessing what is required after the second Ashes Test at Lord's.
"We'll have more information on how the team's going, the results of the first couple of Ashes Tests, what the brand of cricket looks like and an opportunity to review any changes that will need to be made," Bailey said.
Marcus Harris back in pole position
Whether Warner's Test career finishes in England or he makes it to the next Australia season, there will be an opening vacancy sooner rather than later, and another perhaps not too long after that depending on how long Usman Khawaja's golden late-career surge continues.
He was unfortunate to lose his place during the 2021-22 Ashes, one match after battling tough conditions at the MCG for 76, when Khawaja had to be accommodated.
"It feels really strange saying four months was four [first-class] bats, but that's the way cricket can be," he said.
"I agree with [WA coach] Adam Voges, he said post the final that he thinks Cam Bancroft is batting as well as he's ever seen," Bailey said. "Think we'd agree with that as a panel as well, so really excited by the form that he's in and really glad he's over in England playing.
"Matt [Renshaw] was putting a really compelling case at the top of the order as well early on in the year for Queensland then by virtue of being away in India didn't get much of an opportunity in the back half of the year.
"Not being rude to Usman or Dave, but there's no doubt those two are probably closer to the end than start of their careers so we are going to need some depth and needing all three of those guys performing really well for us. Hopefully they make our decisions incredibly challenging over next little while."
Andrew McGlashan is a deputy editor at ESPNcricinfo
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