Big picture: After the détente, brace for detonation
Is it just me, or is it a bit unnervingly quiet around here? After a ten-day cooling-off period, all the froth and bombast of those first three Tests has dissipated, to be replaced by a more demure focus as England and Australia gird their loins and prepare for round four of a ceaselessly compelling Ashes campaign.
Perhaps it's the sense of battlelines drawn, of weaknesses probed and strengths acknowledged, that has contributed to this relative period of détente. Or maybe it's simply the calm before another storm - a chance to let all those antagonistic column inches and debates about the Spirit of Cricket blow off into the ether, while leaving the women to take charge of the Ashes narrative for a few days. Either way, this series interlude could not have come at a more opportune moment for both sets of combatants, after a three-match onslaught that drained sanity and stamina in equal measure.
England collectively bust a gut to keep their campaign afloat in that thrilling three-wicket win at Headingley - most evocatively through Mark Wood's awesome displays of raw speed, each staccato burst visibly draining his batteries even as he maintained his mid-90 mph pace. Ben Stokes did not bowl so much as an over in the same Test, instead channeling his own focus into that vital first-innings counterattack, while Stuart Broad - now on course to play in all five Tests despite doubting he would even make the cut for the first-Test attack - will similarly have been grateful for an extended rest of his 37-year-old bones.
For Australia, likewise, the chance to unwind and regroup and reappraise a 2-1 scoreline that - prior to the series, they would gladly have accepted at this stage of the campaign - is a Godsend. For long tracts of the Headingley Test, their attack seemed to be carried exclusively by Pat Cummins and Mitchell Starc, so Australia will have seized the chance to sharpen up those spearheads while replenishing their quiver with another A-lister in the rested Josh Hazlewood. There's the chance too that Cameron Green will be restored to their ranks too after the hamstring niggle that interrupted his campaign, although the balance of Australia's attack may determine that call.
And then there's the mental toll that three such high-octane matches will have taken. On Jonny Bairstow, after a grim display of wicketkeeping at Headingley; on David Warner after two more dismissals at the hands of his nemesis Broad. On Marnus Labuschagne and Steve Smith, neither of whom has quite got the footing in the series that their exalted records might have ordained. On England's entire chillaxed dressing-room vibe, which - notwithstanding Brendon McCullum's ceaseless determination to banish angst and double-down on positive reinforcement - cannot have entirely escaped the uniquely intense media gaze that accompanies an Ashes series.
And so, here we are then. Locked and reloaded, with Australia still one win away from sealing their first Ashes win in England since 2001, and England still two wins away from completing the first 0-2 Ashes turnaround since Don Bradman and Co. in 1936-37.
In any other era, that might feel like too much of an ask already, especially with the Manchester weather expected to put a further dampener on proceedings this week. But that's not exactly how the Bazball era rolls. Draws are not an option for Ben Stokes' England team, and their overall record of 12 wins from 16 since the start of last summer offers statistical succour to back up their ingrained optimism.
Even two days of rain might not be enough to prevent England's captain from engineering a coin-flip of a run-chase - on the tour of Pakistan back in December, during a brain-storm of hypotheticals from the media prior to the Multan Test, he even acknowledged that an innings forfeiture wouldn't be out of the question if it helped speed any given game along. Having effectively gambled and lost in the series opener at Edgbaston, you sense Stokes won't hesitate to risk it all once again if it's the only means to keep those Ashes hopes alive.
And so, it's not going to take a whole lot of huff and puff for the flames to start blazing once again after this week of Ashes smouldering. Especially with England having turned to an attack that is quite literally unparalleled in terms of experience. James Anderson (41 next week), Broad (37), Moeen Ali (36), Chris Woakes (34) and Wood (33) have seen it all over the past decade and more - as indeed have Stokes and Root (both 32), the other key bowling options in an XI that will boast a combined 1,974 Test wickets, more than any Test team in history, and breaking their own record of 1,777, as set at Edgbaston in the first Test.
If nothing else, that line-up is surely an indication of how ephemeral the Bazball era could be. How this Test, and - all things being equal from England's point of view, the next at The Oval too - could represent an end as much as a beginning, not unlike the two defining Ashes tussles of the century in fact: the epic of 2005, after which nothing was ever quite the same for England again, and Australia's revenge mission in 2006-07, when Glenn McGrath and Shane Warne bowed out on a high at Sydney, with their narrative arcs complete.
You sense, either way, there'll be more spent bodies in the coming days. Anything less would be a dereliction of the drama that this summer is laying on.
Form guide
England WLLWL (last five Tests, most recent first) Australia LWWWD
In the spotlight: James Anderson and Todd Murphy
Is this the final curtain? Never say never where the timeless talents of James Anderson are concerned, but even the man himself intimated at his career mortality in a recent Telegraph column, when he conceded that "nostalgia" alone would be no reason for his recall at his home ground of Old Trafford. But here he is, on the eve of his 41st birthday, back in the saddle not only on merit, but at another critical juncture of the series. His figures to date make uncomfortable reading - three wickets at 75.33 in 77 overs is not the impact he'd have anticipated on his tenth Ashes campaign, but there's little doubt that he endured the worst of the conditions on two flat decks at Edgbaston and Lord's. Headingley's bounce and movement would doubtless have been more to his liking, and he'll be hoping for similar northern comfort as he lines up once more from the James Anderson End.
Who knows what there would be left for England to fight for right now, had Nathan Lyon not gone lame midway through the Lord's Test. Certainly, their run-chase at Headingley would have been all the more fraught had Cummins had a spinner in his ranks in whom he had unequivocal faith. Instead, he had Todd Murphy, who contributed a pair of isolated overs on that tense final day, as England hunted down 251 with three wickets in hand. Earlier this year, Murphy's 14 wickets in India came at a tidy economy rate of 2.56, but that figure is already more than double in Ashes cricket at 5.15 - although he did at least end Stokes' first-innings onslaught for his solitary wicket. But how does he approach the challenge that awaits at Old Trafford - and more pertinently, how will England approach him? You'd suspect their aim will be to isolate and conquer, and once again exacerbate the workload of Australia's senior seamers - Cummins in particular has already bowled 106.4 overs in the series, second only to Broad (117.4). This, however, is a venue that has traditionally more for spinners than most in the country, with Monty Panesar in particular enjoying the extra bounce on offer in claiming 25 wickets in his three Tests here between 2006 and 2008.
Team news: Anderson, Hazlewood return to attacks
England, as is their wont, once again named their side 48 hours in advance of the Test, with a solitary personnel change from that three-wicket win at Headingley. Anderson duly returns on his home ground in place of Ollie Robinson, who declared himself "100% fit" in the wake of his mid-match back spasm, but whose impact with the ball in this series hasn't quite lived up to his motor-mouthed verbal contributions (not that 10 wickets at 28.40 and an economy of 2.76 represents a complete failure to walk the talk).
Perhaps the most notable aspect from England's perspective are the changes they haven't made. Despite a nondescript contribution of 5 from 15 balls in the Headingley run-chase, they haven't been dissuaded from thrusting Moeen up to No.3 - a promotion which is designed to give a better structure to the middle order, where Bairstow has been retained as wicketkeeper despite a deeply scratchy display in the series to date. The impression from the first three Tests is that Bairstow's horribly broken leg is affecting his mobility behind the stumps, with a knock-on effect on his granite-willed batting. However, as Bazball's original poster-boy after his derring-do in 2022, England have decided now is not the moment to lose faith. It may be a gamble that decides the fate of the series.
England: 1 Zak Crawley, 2 Ben Duckett, 3 Moeen Ali, 4 Joe Root, 5 Harry Brook, 6 Ben Stokes (capt), 7 Jonny Bairstow (wk), 8 Chris Woakes, 9 Stuart Broad, 10 Mark Wood, 11 James Anderson
Australia's selection has been a similar blend of obvious and agonised decision-making. Hazlewood's recall at the expense of Scott Boland is a no-brainer - England's nemesis from 2021-22 was despatched at nearly five an over for his two wickets at Edgbaston and Headingley, and makes way for a bowler whose six wickets in the corresponding Old Trafford Test in 2019 were instrumental in Australia's retention of the Ashes. Hazlewood's appearances in the first two Tests of the summer were his first back-to-back since January 2021, but after a near-three-week break, he's sure to be fit and firing.
Their other decision has been a bit more of a dilemma. Mitchell Marsh's startling impact at Headingley has guaranteed his retention, but it leaves Green without an obvious berth in the XI. Several solutions have been posited - the omission of Warner, in light of his ongoing travails against Broad; the binning-off of Murphy, despite Old Trafford's reputation as one of England's more spin-friendly surface - but the likeliest upshot would seem to be … no change at the top.
Australia: (possible) 1 David Warner, 2 Usman Khawaja, 3 Marnus Labuschagne, 4 Steve Smith, 5 Travis Head, 6 Mitchell Marsh, 7 Alex Carey (wk), 8 Mitchell Starc, 9 Pat Cummins (capt), 10 Todd Murphy, 11 Josh Hazlewood
Pitch and conditions
Blame the jet stream for this one, apparently. While continental Europe swelters in temperatures pushing 40 degrees Celsius, the UK has reverted to be a damp rock in the North Atlantic, with grey skies, drizzle and general dankness anticipated for the entire Test-match week. Stereotypical Manchester weather, in other words, which might have the knock-on effect of keeping the pitch fresh for the seamers, in between several inevitable stoppages for rain. Twenty-four hours out, the surface itself looks hard and brown, with no discernible live grass on show. It looks like a bat-first deck, but the overheads may beg to differ. Reverse-swing has been a key weapon at Old Trafford in previous Ashes contests, but Stokes acknowledged that the lush outfield would likely negate that prospect.
Stats and trivia
Australia have won nine of their previous 31 Tests at Old Trafford, against seven defeats, the most recent of which came a long old time ago. Ian Botham's Ashes-sealing onslaught in 1981 was England's last Ashes success on the ground. Since then they've drawn three and lost four, including their most recent match in 2019.
Moeen reached 200 Test wickets at Headingley earlier this month, he now needs another 23 runs to complete 3000 Test runs as well, a prospect that he said "feels like miles off" on the eve of the Test.
Broad needs two more wickets to reach 600 in Tests, which would make him the fifth bowler overall to reach the mark, and only the second seamer after his team-mate Anderson (currently 688)
Stokes passed 6000 runs at Headingley, but still needs three wickets to reach the 200 mark, after opting not to bowl during the third Test due to his long-standing knee injury.
Anderson has not played in a Test victory against Australia since the Edgbaston Test in 2015. Since then he's featured in nine defeats and two draws across four subsequent campaigns.
New Zealand's attack against Australia at Christchurch in February 1986 (Richard Hadlee, Gary Troup, Ewen Chatfield and Jeremy Coney) was the last time that any Test team fielded four specialist seamers aged 33 or older. The only previous Ashes team was Australia at Brisbane in 1928, the occasion of Bradman's debut.
Quotes
"If we win this one then going into the last game at 2-2, it would be hard not to say this is the best men's Ashes series in a long time, if not the best. Overall, take away Australia and England: the cricket that's been played has been absolutely brilliant." Ben Stokes is gunning for the series decider as England look to battle back from the brink
"When you look back to a few of the recent tours we've had in Pakistan or India, we played some of our best cricket at the end of the tour. Hopefully this one's the same, even getting more and more used to the conditions." Pat Cummins is hopeful that Australia peak at the right time
Andrew Miller is UK editor of ESPNcricinfo. @miller_cricket
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