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Scotland v Ireland: Scots knocking out formidable Irish would be a revelation

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Published in Rugby
Friday, 06 October 2023 11:07

First it was Jamie Ritchie, then it was Blair Kinghorn and after Kinghorn, Zander Fagerson - three Scots talking about the challenge facing them in their World Cup-defining Test against Ireland on Saturday at the Stade de France and all of them using the same battle-cry: "We're not going to die wondering."

The words coming out of the Scotland camp these past few days have been stark. "We're going to fire every bullet in our gun," said the Scotland captain. "It's do-or-die," said Fagerson. "We'll leave everything out there," said Kinghorn.

The full-back went further. What about Ireland's 16 victories in a row? "They've been on a good run of form recently, but we'll end that on Saturday." You will end it on Saturday, he was asked. Kinghorn just nodded. No more words necessary.

It's hard to remember a time when Scotland players delivered such fighting talk before a must-win game - or in this case must-win by eight points while denying Ireland any kind of bonus point. They were in a very similar situation four years ago ahead of the Japan game in Yokohama, but their language wasn't as direct back then as it is now.

This is uncharacteristic chat from these players, but as Gregor Townsend said when asked why he thought Scotland could beat the world number one - why not?

'Scale of Scotland challenge extraordinary'

The "never die wondering" mantra probably speaks to their shared experiences of, well, dying wondering, against Ireland time after time over the last six years, a span that's featured eight straight wins for the Irish on a cumulative score of 202-88, a try-count of 24-8 and an average winning margin of 14.

If there was a war of what-ifs between Scotland and Ireland then the Scots would win it in a canter. What if Peter Horne had found one of his team-mates running free outside him at the Aviva in 2018 instead of Jacob Stockdale, who promptly ran away to score? What if Huw Jones hadn't butchered a simple two-on-one in the same game? What if Tommy Seymour and Sean Maitland hadn't given a free try to Conor Murray in 2019?

What if Stuart Hogg hadn't dropped the ball over the Ireland line in 2020 or if they hadn't lost six lineouts in a three-point game at Murrayfield in 2021 of if Hogg with the try-line spitting distance away hadn't allowed himself to be tackled into touch by Hugo Keenan in 2022 when all he had to do was pass the damn ball to a team-mate beside him?

Regrets? Just a few. Early in the year, Scotland wasted two solid try-scoring chances in the opening half against Ireland at Murrayfield. The visitors lost one hooker to injury, then another.. They had a prop at hooker and an openside flanker throwing into the lineout - and still motored on to win by 15 points. Painful memories, those. Excruciating.

The scale of what Scotland need to do on Saturday is extraordinary. There was a stat doing the rounds during the week about Johnny Sexton not having lost to any Scottish team (club or country) in 12 years. We can extend that further.

Of the Irish starters, Bundee Aki has the lowest success rate against Scottish sides - a still healthy 64%. Ten of the team are 80% plus. Tadhg Beirne is 95%, Peter O'Mahony is 96%, James Lowe and Mack Hansen are 100%.

These guys are serial winners, not just against Scotland. Sixteen Test wins in a row is closing in on a world record. Scotland need to beat them by eight points, but Ireland have not trailed, not to mind lost, by eight points to anybody since early summer 2022.

They beat New Zealand in New Zealand twice and were never behind in either Test. France built a six-point lead on them in the Six Nations but it lasted three minutes. England were 6-0 ahead but that lasted just four minutes. Last autumn, Ireland beat the Springboks and were never behind in the course of the 80 minutes. They beat them again last month. The Boks had a three-point lead at one point, but it didn't last very long. Ireland won that one, too.

All of this is to say that if Scotland win by one point on Saturday then you can chalk it down as one of the greatest victories in the history of the country, even though they would exit the tournament, carried out on their shield.

If they win by eight and knock Ireland out of the World Cup then the ground will shake under the feet of the global game. It would be a revelation, a moment of shock and awe, a performance that would stand proudly alongside anything Scotland has ever produced in a century and more.

Emotion is wrapped up in all of this. Scotland's failure in Japan is carved into the soul of all the players who were then and who are still here now. For some of them, there may not be another chance at this level.

Finn Russell will be 35 next time around. Young enough to play, but more vulnerable to injury at that age. Grant Gilchrist, Richie Gray, WP Nel and more won't be in Australia in 2027. This is it for them.

Irish look to shake off semi-final curse

This is it, too, for Sexton, for O'Mahony (who wins his 100th cap on Saturday), for Conor Murray, for Aki, for many others. If it goes wrong on Saturday, they'll never see another World Cup. The motivation on both sides is through the roof - Scotland fighting to stay alive, Ireland scraping like animals to rid themselves of the World Cup curse that has seen them never make a semi-final.

They've beaten everybody, they're world number one and, to many, they're favourites to win the World Cup. That's a lot of pressure, but their focus is ferocious and if favouritism is a burden to them then they're carrying it lightly.

They're wary of Scotland, though. Wary of Scotland's capacity to unleash chaos, wary of Russell on his best day, wary of what happen if Scotland's forwards get on the front foot and allow Russell to go wide with pace and accuracy to potentially devastating runners.

Scotland can score tries, it's just that they haven't scored them against Ireland. Eight in eight is a terrible return given the class in that backline. It's a reflection of the incredible defensive organisation and nous in this Irish team. Their ability to problem-solve mid-game is well-proven and thunderously impressive.

Townsend said on Thursday that his players are ready to deliver their best performance. That means fixing a lineout that has looked shaky (as Ireland's has), that means defensive excellence for 80 minutes, ruthless execution when chances arise, massive impact from a bench that looks a bit light and no pockets of the game where they get routed.

Scotland have shown against France, one of the best teams in the world, that they can score a lot of points in a short space of time. They've also shown that they concede tries in clusters, a ruinous pursuit.

They shipped two in three minutes against France in the Six Nations, two in five minutes against Ireland, two in two minutes against France in the warm-ups and two in three minutes against the Boks in Marseille.

That's a one-way ticket home on Saturday - and they know it. But what has shone through is not just their appreciation of the task facing them but also their exhilaration in facing it.

They're buzzing. They're saying they have nothing to lose. They're pointing out that nobody is giving them much of a chance and that they're going to feed off the doubt outside of their bubble.

"Everyone is pumped," said Kinghorn. "You go through your whole career to play in these games," said Fagerson. "Another opportunity to break another record," said Townsend.

Like prize-fighters making their way to the ring, the sense of expectation couldn't be greater. This could be very special.

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