Big picture: Pakistan chasing the almost impossible

So here we are: one last time in the group stages at Eden Gardens, and for both of these sides - almost certainly - one last time at this World Cup. As title defences go, it was an all-timer of a disaster for England, comparable not just with other cricketing fizzle-fests, but perhaps all sport: think France at the FIFA World Cup in 2002, or Lleyton Hewitt's first-round exit at Wimbledon the year later. England went nearly a month between their only two World Cup wins, with six defeats - many of them pastings - littering their campaign, one so poor it could yet knock them out of the 2025 Champions Trophy.

England's brand of cricket has been high-risk-high-reward for about eight years now, and having enjoyed so much white-ball success with it, the risks finally appeared to catch up this time. That style feels like it requires ultimate buy-in from players, and that requires confidence, which only comes from results.

In Pakistan cricket, hope is the last thing you lose, and so despite the near-insurmountable odds against semi-final qualification, they keep on dreaming. Qualification requires beating England by about 290 runs, and while England have had a bad tournament, it's not an ideal position to be for Babar Azam's men. It has been a campaign that has mirrored their 2019 tournament with frustrating faithfulness, losing just enough games to leave them adrift of New Zealand on net run rate (NRR). In the final game that year, they required a similarly improbable win over Bangladesh. It didn't happen then, and it's unlikely to happen now.

At best, he can emulate what Pakistan managed four years ago, and finish off as the best of the rest. On the evidence of the cricket they have played, it won't exactly be an unfair assessment.

Form guide

England: LLLLW (last five completed ODIs, most recent first)
Pakistan: WWLLL

In the spotlight: Jos Buttler and Fakhar Zaman

Team news: No changes likely

England turned in something resembling a complete performance against Netherlands, despite a middle-order wobble that threatened to destabilise. Wholesale changes to that team are unlikely.

England: 1 Jonny Bairstow, 2 Dawid Malan, 3 Joe Root, 4 Ben Stokes, 5 Harry Brook, 6 Jos Buttler (capt/wk), 7 Moeen Ali, 8 Chris Woakes, 9 David Willey, 10 Gus Atkinson, 11 Adil Rashid

Pakistan's bowling took a battering against New Zealand, but they are expected to field an unchanged side to the one that pulled off that near-miraculous DLS win chasing 402.

Pakistan: 1 Abdullah Shafique, 2 Fakhar Zaman, 3 Babar Azam (capt), 4 Mohammad Rizwan (wk), 5 Saud Shakeel, 6 Iftikhar Ahmed, 7 Agha Salman, 8 Hasan Ali, 9 Mohammad Wasim Jnr, 10 Shaheen Shah Afridi, 11 Haris Rauf

Pitch and conditions: Bowlers beware

There's some grass on what looks like a dry pitch. It's also off-centre, which will result in a short boundary one side. It's expected to be hot and quite humid, with rain not in the offing.

Stats and trivia

Quotes

"Look, there should be hope at all times. At any stage, in any work you do, you should have positive and hope, and I firmly believe in that."
Pakistan captain Babar Azam hasn't given up on the semi-finals