Before Scotland faced Ireland in last year's Six Nations, Netflix cameras picked up Gregor Townsend's rallying cry to the troops, a call to arms that backfired.

They did not. Scotland's first-half performance at Murrayfield a year ago was terrific - "I've never been more confident in you guys winning this game," says Townsend. But the fact is an Irish team who lost two hookers, and played much of the second half with an open-side flanker throwing into the line-out and a 35-year-old prop playing hooker, nulled them for the final 63 minutes and won by 15 points.

"The best of us beats any team in the world," says Townsend. As they prepare for Saturday's last act in the 2024 Six Nations, every Irish player who has seen the footage - and the lock Tadhg Beirne is one of them - is entitled to respond with a withering, "Really?"

In Dublin on Saturday, Scotland can beat Ireland for the first time since 2017, in the Irish capital for the first time since 2010, a first Triple Crown since 1990. They can finish first, second, third, fourth or fifth depending on results. Triumph or despair? Given the history, the smart money is on despair.

Some Irish rugby observers like to portray the Scots as popinjays, all mouth and no action, constantly talking themselves up. This kind of stuff has been going on for years and it's been groundless in the most part, a bizarre distortion of reality.

Less than an hour into Scotland's World Cup loss, Ireland led 36-0. "There goes that dream," was a memorable line written for Barry Keoghan in the Banshees of Inisherin. It might as well have been written for Blair Kinghorn in Paris, for it was the full-back who predicted Scotland would win.

On the face of it, this looks like Scottish chutzpah, but maybe it's more to do with Scottish insecurity. Heading to the Aviva on Saturday, they have nine defeats in a row against Ireland. The average try count across those nine Tests is 3-1 in Ireland's favour, the average score 26-11. One team has a firm psychological hold over the other.

Townsend said on Thursday his team would need to score 20 points - and possibly more - to win. They have managed 20 points against Ireland once in nine attempts, single figures on four occasions.

There is individual brilliance in Townsend's team, no question, but the bells and whistles tend to fall silent against Ireland. Scotland did not score for the first 63 minutes in the World Cup game in Paris or for the last 63 in the previous Six Nations match at Murrayfield.

This is a trend going back years, vast chunks of time in games - 32 minutes, 36 minutes, 39 minutes, 59 minutes - when Scotland did not register a solitary score against Ireland.

So if the Irish players and media do indeed believe Scotland are a team that go for 60 minutes then fade, there might be a good reason for them thinking it. It's not going to change until Scotland do something about it.

Grant Gilchrist spoke about some of this earlier in the week. The lock was still shaken by Scotland's loss away to Italy on matchday three - no Scottish points in 50 minutes while Italy were notching 21 on the spin - and then revisited the World Cup game in Paris.

He said in the wake of that annihilation he got no peace. Every time he closed his eyes he could see his defensive error that started that rout in the second minute.

Gilchrist, as honest as the day is long, talked about how Scotland need to be stronger mentally. There's no doubt this team is capable of resilience but there's self-destruction there, too, and it seemingly cannot be eliminated.

It revisited them again in Rome. A weird deviation from the gameplan, a lack of discipline, an epidemic of poor decision-making under pressure, a psychological weakness when the heat was truly on. A glorious chance of their greatest ever Six Nations championship damaged probably beyond repair.

Gilchrist came across as emotional when reliving it all on Tuesday. It's hard to know if that's a good thing (he's using it as fuel) or a bad thing (he's still damaged by it).

Townsend has brought in Stafford McDowall in an attempt to fill the giant hole left behind by the injured Sione Tuipulotu. What a miss he's been. McDowall's first job as a starting Scot in the Six Nations is to deal with Bundee Aki, one of Ireland's pre-eminent players of the era. Gulp.

Ireland suffered a thumping by England at Twickenham, despite what the score might suggest. England's tempo and aggression was unending. They ran hard and straight, then went wide with a vengeance. It was controlled fury. Chaotic at times.

Scotland have their template, written by Steve Borthwick and performed wonderfully by players who had had enough of the stick they were getting from the outside world. They used the anger they felt after losing to Scotland who, in turn, must use the anger they feel after losing in Italy.

Fifteen of Ireland's 16 tries so far have originated at the line-out. Offensively, it's their happy place and launchpad for so much but it's been looking a little vulnerable for a while now. Creating chaos at the Irish line-out is one of the things on Scotland's lengthy must-do list. They need to attack it remorselessly.

Can the visitors do what they have been unable to do very often in this fixture and stay in the fight for the first hour then see who holds their nerve in the last quarter? In the four games in this championship, Ireland have won the last 20 minutes 45-5 whereas Scotland have lost 32-10.

There is a sense of foreboding around this for Townsend's team. Ireland's past dominance and Scotland's ongoing and prolonged lapses in games give it a feeling of mission highly improbable. Anything other than a home win would be an utter sensation.