Big picture: Pride (for India) and WTC points at stake

A 2-0 series scoreline heading into the final Test is what most followers of the game would have predicted when this three-match India vs New Zealand series began 15 days back. But barely anyone would have predicted that "2" would not be against India's name.

While there is pride at stake for the home team, there are also crucial WTC points up for grabs for both sides. India are still leading the WTC points table but that lead has been cut short big time with these two defeats. Another loss here and they will have plenty of catching up to do in Australia.

For New Zealand, getting to the WTC final seemed far-fetched when this series started but these two wins have brought them right back into contention. A win in Mumbai and then in the three-match series at home against England will keep them in the mix for another WTC final.

For India, it's more about how to bounce back from these shock defeats and get a win under their belt ahead of the Australia tour. On paper, this is a dead rubber. In reality, it's anything but.

Form guide

India LLWWW (last five Tests, most recent first)
New Zealand WWLLL

In the spotlight - Virat Kohli and Mitchell Santner

In 19 innings in Asia since January 2022, he's fallen to spin 16 times, averaging 29.31. The corresponding number against pace is three dismissals while averaging 47.00. For someone who has that old-school long stretch forward against spinners, he has often been dismissed playing from the crease. He's fallen to spin three out of the four innings in this series, to Glenn Phillips in Bengaluru and twice to Santner in Pune. On a Mumbai surface that is bound to turn, Kohli might need to do a bit extra to get his spin numbers on point.

Team news: Bumrah to be rested? What about Southee?

India (probable XI): 1 Yashasvi Jaiswal, 2 Rohit Sharma (capt), 3 Shubman Gill, 4 Virat Kohli, 5 Rishabh Pant (wk), 6 Sarfaraz Khan, 7 Ravindra Jadeja, 8 R Ashwin, 9 Washington Sundar, 10 Jasprit Bumrah/Kuldeep Yadav/Mohammed Siraj, 11 Akash Deep

New Zealand (probable XI): 1 Tom Latham (capt), 2 Devon Conway, 3 Will Young, 4 Rachin Ravindra, 5 Daryl Mitchell, 6 Tom Blundell (wk), 7 Glenn Phillips, 8 Mitchell Santner, 9 Matt Henry, 10 Ajaz Patel, 11 William O'Rourke

Pitch and conditions

The red-soil surface in Mumbai is dry and will take turn early. It is expected to crumble as the Test goes on but there should be good bounce for the fast bowlers and spinners. It is expected to be humid in Mumbai with the temperatures likely to be around the low to mid-30s on the Celsius scale.

Stats and trivia

Quotes

"I think looks a really good wicket. Obviously, it's really difficult for anyone to judge how the wicket is going to behave unless the game starts on it and both the teams have batted on it. But I feel it looks a decent wicket and I'm sure once the guys get in, they can actually make the most of it."
India head coach Gautam Gambhir on the Wankhede surface

"I think so, yeah. We'll have a look obviously at the wicket but I think if you look at past tosses, I think most teams have batted first."
Captain Tom Latham is clear on what he wants to do if New Zealand win the toss on Friday