It made sense at the time. In the grey matter and guts alike, the rationale felt right.

With 62 minutes on the clock, and an eight-point advantage on the scoreboard, you tighten the grip, not chance your arm.

Steve Borthwick chose that point to withdraw fly-half Marcus Smith, architect of his teams only try.

On came George Ford, a 97-cap arch game manager, the hero of England's World Cup win over Argentina, to snuff the life out of New Zealand and nurse the scoreline through to victory.

But, thats the thing: it always feels right at the time.

By the time referee Angus Gardner blew the final whistle, that reasoning, for many, had been exploded.

England had ceded momentum, territory and finally the lead, with New Zealand scoring 10 unanswered points in the final quarter and Ford missing two kicks one penalty, one drop-goal that would have snatched back victory.

Ford hasnt played for more than a month because of a quad injury. He wasnt ready. Smith was having a fine game. He should have been pulling the strings, not cooling his heels on the bench, when the final stages played out.

Now, that is the theory that fits. The events seem to bear it out. The narrative of where England lost the game is an easy tale to spin.

But Borthwick and his team will know there were more moving parts to Englands latest defeat than just an exchange of 10s.

Recency bias the phenomenon that loads greatest importance on the freshest events doesnt last long in the video review.

When the tape rolls at Pennyhill Park this week, Englands new defence coach Joe El-Abd will highlight the holes too easily opened by two blind-side darts that led to All Black tries.

The six replacement forwards an Anglo-Saxon answer to South Africas bomb squad failed to detonate, falling foul of Gardner at scrums and breakdown.

An overall lack of an attacking threat, beyond Smiths smart intercept, meant that England could never get out of the range of a late All Black surge.

Smith himself had two fluffed drop-goal attempts, both uglier shanks than Fords effort.

Ford, who was also shrugged off by Mark Telea on the way to a match-winning try, undoubtedly had a day to forget.

But Englands latest heartbreak after a string of narrow defeats has more sources than one man.