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Our NFL free agency cheat sheet: Sleepers, top QBs and teams to watch

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Published in Breaking News
Thursday, 06 March 2025 06:20

NFL free agency officially begins at 4 p.m. ET March 12, but teams can start negotiating with players on March 10. We have you covered with everything you need to know. That includes a preview of what to expect, a look at the best available players, key teams to watch, quarterbacks who could be on the move, perfect player-team fits, bold predictions and interesting sleepers.

We also picked out free agents who could break the bank and asked one big question to our Patriots, Bengals and Saints reporters. Finally, we wrap it all up with an evaluation of how deals could impact April's NFL draft and next season's fantasy football landscape.

Here's what you need to know about free agency. (Salary cap figures are via Roster Management System as of March 5.)

Jump to:
Preview | Top names | Franchise tags
Quarterbacks to watch | Bank breakers
Active teams | Quiet teams | Best fits
Big questions | Deepest position | Sleepers
Bold predictions | Draft outlook | Fantasy spin

What can we expect in free agency, and when does it start?

Quarterback Matthew Stafford and the Rams reached an agreement on a contract adjustment, which created a trickle-down effect for all quarterback-needy teams -- the Raiders, Giants, Steelers and Browns. The most notable quarterbacks in free agency are Sam Darnold, Justin Fields, Russell Wilson and Aaron Rodgers (whom the Jets are expected to release).

With the salary cap increasing by $23.8 million to a record $279.2 million, many teams will have plenty of cap space to shop with when the negotiating window opens at noon ET on Monday.

On offense, some moves ahead of the franchise-tag deadline and negotiation window reshaped the class of receivers available. The Bengals tagged Tee Higgins, who would have been the top receiver in free agency, for a second consecutive season. The Jets released receiver Davante Adams, who should have many options but will have to decide whether he wants to team up with Rodgers again or forge his own path forward. Chris Godwin (ankle) and Stefon Diggs (ACL) are set for the open market, but both are coming off season-ending injuries, so it will be interesting to see how that affects their value.

Outside of receiver, watch for teams to spend on the offensive line, where tackle Ronnie Stanley and center Drew Dalman have each reached free agency.

Defensively, there's always a premium placed on pass rushers. There will be a market for veterans Josh Sweat, Khalil Mack, Haason Reddick and Joey Bosa, each of whom could provide an immediate impact. -- Lindsey Thiry, national NFL reporter

Read more: NFL free agency live tracker ... Grading signings (ESPN+)


Who are the top free agents available?

Matt Bowen stacked the top 10 free agents available.

1. Ronnie Stanley, OT
2. D.J. Reed, CB
3. Chris Godwin, WR
4. Sam Darnold, QB
5. Josh Sweat, Edge
6. Milton Williams, DT
7. Khalil Mack, LB
8. Charvarius Ward, CB
9. Jevon Holland, S
10. Joey Bosa, Edge

Read more: Ranking the top 100 free agents (ESPN+) ... 32 players who need a change of scenery


Who was franchise-tagged?

Only two teams used the franchise tag before the Tuesday deadline. The Kansas City Chiefs kicked things off by tagging guard Trey Smith. Wide receiver Tee Higgins received the Cincinnati Bengals' tag for the second straight year.

Read more: Franchise tag tracker ... What is an NFL franchise tag? ... Tag deadline winners, losers (ESPN+)


Who are the top quarterbacks available?

Sam Darnold: Even as the Vikings remain committed to J.J. McCarthy as their franchise quarterback of the future, Minnesota would love to find a way to bring Darnold back. The problem is he will likely find better deals on the open market because the Vikings are already paying Justin Jefferson $35 million per year and plan on pivoting to McCarthy as soon as he's ready. The 27-year-old Darnold is coming off a career-best season, throwing for 4,319 yards and 35 touchdowns. If he doesn't have a market, no one will.

Aaron Rodgers: He's 41 years old and won five games last season, so the fact he's second on this list gives you a pretty good idea of what this year's quarterback market is like. Rodgers probably would have been in play for the Rams if they moved on from Stafford, but they didn't. The teams likely to be interested in Rodgers -- Giants, Raiders and Titans -- aren't likely to be 2025 contenders. He has to decide if continuing his career for a noncontender is worth it. And how would he react if he signed with one of those teams and it drafted a first-round quarterback the way Atlanta did last year after signing Kirk Cousins?

play
1:34
Graziano baffled by Rodgers-Giants rumors

Dan Graziano can't fathom why the New York Giants would consider bringing in Aaron Rodgers as their starting quarterback.

Justin Fields: He was 4-2 as a starter last season for the Steelers, but the team turned the job over to Russell Wilson when he got healthy. We know Fields, 26, can run, and he has shown enough flashes as a passer that teams will have some interest in bringing him in as an upside play unless Pittsburgh re-signs him first.

Best of the rest: The Falcons continue to insist they won't release Cousins even as they commit to Michael Penix Jr. as their 2025 starter. This feels like a silly stance to take, but we learned last year that Atlanta's quarterback plans can be a bit eccentric. When and if the Falcons finally do end up cutting him, teams would have interest in bringing Cousins in on a veteran-minimum deal while Atlanta pays him the remainder of his guaranteed $27.5 million salary.

Wilson is in the mix in Pittsburgh if the Steelers don't bring back Fields. Otherwise, could he reunite with Pete Carroll in Las Vegas? Daniel Jones finished the season with the Vikings and could be their bridge QB to McCarthy if they decide they need one. If not, he could end up in a spot like Cleveland, where the Deshaun Watson contract necessitates the Browns going cheap at quarterback. After that, it's guys such as Jameis Winston, Carson Wentz, Joe Flacco, Jimmy Garoppolo and Jacoby Brissett, who have been starters at various points in their careers and theoretically could be again in a pinch. -- Dan Graziano, national NFL reporter

Read more: Predicting all 32 starting QBs for 2024 (ESPN+) ... The path to career recovery for free agent QBs (ESPN+)


Free agents who will break the bank

Milton Williams, DT

Williams may not be a household name, but the 2021 third-round pick steadily improved in Philadelphia and delivered his best performance in 2024. Five sacks feel unremarkable, but he was part of a deep rotation that kept his overall snap total down. His 12.5% pressure rate was fourth among defensive tackles with at least 100 pass rushes this season. He's a highly disruptive player.

Sam Darnold, QB

People will be surprised by how much Darnold makes on the open market. He will almost certainly receive an unquestioned QB1 job, and on an ever-escalating cap, handing a starting quarterback $30 million per year is still just a drop in the bucket. Darnold faded under bright lights at the end of last season, but the bulk of his work was still more than enough to bring a team to the postseason, where hopefully his play will improve with more experience.

Byron Murphy Jr., CB

Murphy is hitting the market at the right time. He's 27 years old, which is young in a fairly old free agent class. He just had his most productive season of ball production -- six interceptions, 14 passes defensed and his first Pro Bowl. And because the Vikings moved the void date on his contract, he was not franchise-tagged, which means Murphy will force his way into the open market and create a bidding war for his services. Jaylon Johnson, Tyson Campbell and L'Jarius Sneed recently signed for roughly $19 million per year, and I'd imagine that's what Murphy is gunning for this month.

Will Fries, G

I had better see a fan base getting stoked when its team lands Fries. A seventh-round pick in 2021, he earned the starting right guard job during the 2022 season and held it down marvelously before a fractured tibia ended his 2024 season. Fries was a plus starter and should make a full recovery, which makes him a 25-year-old free agent in a league that always needs offensive line help. Don't be surprised if a bidding war drives his number up near $15 million per year. -- Ben Solak, NFL analyst

Read more: QB, RB, WR, TE and OL tiers (ESPN+) ... DT, LB, CB and S tiers (ESPN+)


Which teams could be active in free agency?

New England Patriots: Armed with nearly $130 million in cap space, the Patriots are poised to spend big on the open market. They need at least one starting offensive lineman -- left tackles Ronnie Stanley and Cam Robinson are options -- a wide receiver, a pass rusher and defensive back help. Coach Mike Vrabel will want to make an immediate impact in Year 1, and the Patriots' quarterback of the future, Drake Maye, needs support.

Carolina Panthers: Expect Carolina to rebuild its defense because it badly needs depth. Targeting a top safety will be on the docket, and the Panthers also plan to fortify their defensive front. Even if they don't go top-of-market at each spot, they will replenish the depth chart just about everywhere. Also look for them to bring in a speedy wide receiver. Carolina has roughly $31 million in cap space.

Cincinnati Bengals: Cincinnati is open about trying to keep its core intact. Pulling that off requires extensions for a trio of stars -- Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and Trey Hendrickson. Whether the Bengals can actually do it is uncertain, but they are going to try, and some of that work will happen over the next two weeks. Also, they will look to re-sign tight end Mike Gesicki and several defensive replenishments, most notably along the defensive line. Cincinnati has $62 million in cap space and minimal dead money. It's time to use it.

New York Giants: Make-or-break years for front office regimes tend to lead to spending. That's what general manager Joe Schoen faces. The Giants' roster still needs upgrades, particularly at quarterback. So expect them to scour the earth for a veteran passer over the next 10 days. They have $47.6 million in cap space, which is more than enough to do damage. The Giants are also combing the veteran guard market and need defensive back help.

Denver Broncos: Denver is a sneaky threat to spend. The Broncos are looking to improve the defense, particularly at linebacker and in the secondary. And don't be surprised if they look for an additional tight end; coach Sean Payton had Juwan Johnson -- considered the top stretch tight end -- in New Orleans for multiple seasons. They also want an additional running back, but they could wait until the draft for that. Denver has $43 million in cap space. -- Jeremy Fowler, national NFL reporter

Read more: Daring moves for all 32 teams (ESPN+) ... One free agent every team should sign (ESPN+)


Which teams could be quiet in free agency?

New Orleans Saints

This one is fairly straightforward, as the Saints currently sit $46 million over the cap. They'll get cap compliant by the time free agency starts, perhaps by restructuring quarterback Derek Carr's contract. But the point is that they need to stop spending new money. That has been true in years past, yet New Orleans kept on spending anyway.

Cleveland Browns

The salary cap really requires a multiyear view, and that isn't pretty for Cleveland. Not only are the Browns currently more than $22 million over the cap in 2025, but they are $2 million over the cap in 2026. That's in no small part due to Deshaun Watson being owed $46 million in fully guaranteed base salary in each of those two years. Even trading star defensive end Myles Garrett wouldn't be much of a cap-saving event for them. Cleveland won't be silent because I expect it'll add a veteran QB (perhaps Kirk Cousins), but I don't think we'll see too many big free agency moves.

San Francisco 49ers

A new contract for quarterback Brock Purdy looms over the 49ers' financial situation. Assuming that gets done, it will add serious money to the payroll for years to come, and they might want to work out a new deal with wide receiver Jauan Jennings, too. They'll make some moves, but with veterans such as Trent Williams, George Kittle, Brandon Aiyuk and Nick Bosa all making good money (and Purdy on the horizon) they can't be freewheeling spenders -- unless they decide to trade some of those veterans.

play
1:34
What happens if the 49ers don't sign Brock Purdy?

Adam Schefter joins Pat McAfee to explain what would happen if the 49ers and Brock Purdy can't reach a long-term deal.

Philadelphia Eagles

This is the scariest pick to make, because general manager Howie Roseman is always willing to push all his chips in. The Eagles are quite leveraged with the salary cap, though. Their top 10 players in terms of cap hit are veterans with salaries under $1.5 million -- meaning their money has been pushed to future years of the cap. They are in line for strong compensatory picks based on players who walk, so they are incentivized to not sign free agents who would offset those compensatory pick gains. That could be a reason for Philadelphia to look to the trade market instead. -- Seth Walder, analytics writer

Read more: Cap questions for every team (ESPN+)


What are some of the best potential player-team fits?

Edge Josh Sweat to the Cardinals

Arizona coach Jonathan Gannon worked with Sweat in Philly, so he knows what he'd be getting in the 6-foot-5, 265-pound edge rusher. Sweat had eight sacks and 33 pressures in the regular season and recorded 2.5 sacks in the Eagles' Super Bowl LIX win. He would add much-needed pass-rushing juice to Gannon's defense, using his speed-to-power to get to the quarterback.

C Drew Dalman to the Bears

Dalman wins his assignments with movement and leverage to offset a smaller frame (6-3, 300 pounds). He's a technician on tape, best suited for the zone run game, and his pass block win rate of 95.1% ranked ninth among centers with at least 500 snaps in 2024. (He missed time due to an ankle injury, though.) Chicago traded for guards Joe Thuney and Jonah Jackson, and Dalman could fit right between them on the line.

LB Nick Bolton to the Broncos

Bolton would be a big upgrade for coordinator Vance Joseph's defense. Bolton fits with the Broncos as a downhill thumper against the run -- he had 11 tackles for loss last season. He lacks elite second-level range in coverage, but he has four career interceptions. -- Matt Bowen, NFL analyst

Read more: Best team fits for 50 free agents (ESPN+) ... Simulating free agency for six players


Big questions

Will the Patriots target a couple of top free agents or are they more likely to add a handful of quality veterans on low-priced deals at key positions?

The Patriots plan to target at least one top free agent -- buzz at the NFL combine was that Ravens left tackle Ronnie Stanley would be the apple of their eye -- but they've also talked about the need to be flexible and have backup plans. So the ultimate answer could be both.

"I'm confident we'll be aggressive," coach Mike Vrabel said. "There's going to be this high level that things are going to get done very quickly, that'll transition then to maybe just some midrange dollars. And then obviously you look at opportunity. So free agency gets broken down into compensation, and then it gets broken down into opportunity, and I feel like we're in a position to offer both." -- Mike Reiss, Patriots reporter

Outside of keeping their stars, what's the biggest priority for the Bengals in free agency?

Getting better up the middle. Guard and defensive tackle are primary concerns entering free agency. Cincinnati shed two veteran contracts, defensive tackle Sheldon Rankins and right guard Alex Cappa, and needs to replace them with capable starters. Rookie defensive tackles Kris Jenkins Jr. and McKinnley Jackson showed upside by the end of last season, but it is still a position of need.

Improving their overall defensive front was also mentioned by Bengals coaches at the NFL combine. Landing the right players in those positions will be crucial if Cincinnati wants to be a Super Bowl contender next season. -- Ben Baby, Bengals reporter

Could the Saints move on from all of their unrestricted free agents? Who would be most likely to stay?

The Saints have 15 unrestricted agents this year, with Paulson Adebo, Chase Young and Juwan Johnson the most notable names. Saints general manager Mickey Loomis said the team will still be active in free agency despite its tight salary cap situation. Loomis recently said Young and Adebo have been good players and that the Saints hope to have them back, but it will all depend on the money and what the new coaching staff sees in them. -- Katherine Terrell, Saints reporter


What is the deepest position?

Cornerback

There are a few strong options, but cornerback stands out. There are several good, every-down starters in their prime (led by D.J. Reed, Carlton Davis III, Byron Murphy Jr., Paulson Adebo, Charvarius Ward, Kendall Fuller and Asante Samuel Jr.), plus a few seasoned vets (Darius Slay Jr. and Stephon Gilmore) and standout slot specialists (Mike Hilton, Nate Hobbs and Jourdan Lewis). Teams had three or more corners on the field 65% of the time last season, so this deep pool of corners will generate plenty of interest. -- Mike Clay, fantasy football writer


Which free agents are going under the radar?

Patrick Mekari, OL

Stanley gets the attention when it comes to Baltimore's offensive line free agents, but Mekari would be an intriguing signing for a team that needs blocking. He ranked fifth last season with a 94.6% pass block win rate as a guard and was above average with a 71.8% run block win rate as well. Mekari is known more for his strong technique and can play both tackle and guard, although he's definitely better as a guard.

Dayo Odeyingbo, Edge

Odeyingbo has had a quiet career, but you can blame that partly on a torn Achilles prior to the draft that cost him much of his rookie season. He has 16.5 career sacks in four seasons, including 3.0 sacks in 2024. But there's still potential for growth, as he will turn 26 early in the 2025 season. Odeyingbo's 13.9% pass rush win rate last season was above average for qualifying edge rushers, and he led the Colts with 33 pressures.

Darius Slayton, WR

The 28-year-old had only 573 receiving yards and two touchdowns last season. However, his efficiency measurements (based on DVOA, which takes every play during the season and compares it to a baseline adjusted for situation and opponent) always come out above average despite having to deal with poor quarterback play. Slayton is a deep threat who has had more than 14.5 yards per catch in each of the past three seasons. He did not fare well in the ESPN receiver scores last season, ranking 128th in the NFL with just a 32 rating, but he was tied for 30th with a 60 rating the season before.

Robert Spillane, LB

Spillane is almost never talked about as one of the league's top off-ball linebackers, but he was involved in 19.2% of Las Vegas' defensive plays last season, third in the NFL behind Budda Baker and Zaire Franklin for their respective teams. Spillane was sixth in the NFL with 29 defeats (a stat that combines turnovers, tackles for loss and tackles to prevent third- and fourth-down conversions). He also was one of the top linebackers in my coverage DVOA metric. -- Aaron Schatz, NFL analyst

Read more: Potential free agency steals (ESPN+)


Bold predictions

The Browns will sign running back J.K. Dobbins ... and find a way to retain Nick Chubb. Dobbins surprised the league with his performance as a Charger last season after returning from his second career-threatening Achilles injury. He would not only fit the Browns' offensive philosophy, but his explosiveness (yes, it's still there!) would provide something they were missing in 2024. The lack of external options available to Chubb in free agency will allow the Browns to retain him at a discount for a planned lower volume of work while bringing a leadership presence in the locker room. -- Stephania Bell, fantasy football writer

Running back Najee Harris will sign with the Chargers. Dobbins had a productive 2024 season with the Chargers, but his injury history remains a concern as he enters free agency. Harris would be an intriguing addition to the run-heavy Chargers offense, especially since coach Jim Harbaugh nearly landed him at Michigan when he was a five-star recruit. -- Eric Moody, fantasy football writer

Quarterback Sam Darnold will sign with the Raiders. He had a big 2024 season finishing fifth in the league in passing yards (4,319) and passing touchdowns (35), and the Raiders desperately need a signal-caller. -- Dan Orlovsky, NFL analyst

Edge rusher Khalil Mack will sign with the Commanders. A free agent for the first time in his career, Mack is a nine-time Pro Bowler, a four-time All-Pro (including three first-team selections) and was the 2016 Defensive Player of the Year. Granted, Mack, who turned 34 on Feb. 22, isn't the dominant game changer he once was, but he's still capable of providing consistent pressure. And he would be a good fit in the aggressive defensive scheme that Commanders coach Dan Quinn utilizes. -- Jason Reid, senior Andscape writer

Darnold will sign with the Giants. This gives the Giants a much-needed starter at quarterback and reduces any potential risk of going into the draft without this critical position solidified. They could then draft a blue-chip player at the top of the first round. -- Mike Tannenbaum, NFL analyst

Most of the big names who are trade considerations will be cut, not traded. The reality in most cases of notable players being made available in trade (i.e. Cooper Kupp or Jaire Alexander) is their deals are financially too steep for their current team. While the names generate significant sizzle and speculation, being made available in a trade can also be interpreted as a last-ditch effort prior to releasing players who are no longer at their peak. -- Field Yates, NFL analyst


What is the biggest draft implication for free agency?

The lack of elite quarterback prospects in this draft class should make free agency all the more exciting and important for teams. Players such as Aaron Rodgers, Sam Darnold and Daniel Jones are likely to have strong markets -- and Kirk Cousins would too if he's released from Atlanta. With just two quarterbacks expected to be drafted in Round 1, teams will be hustling to fill needs at the position before April 24. -- Matt Miller, NFL draft analyst

Read more: Reid's two-round NFL mock draft (ESPN+)


What could free agency mean for fantasy football?

This free agent class is underwhelming. Darnold, last year's QB9, is the top signal-caller to watch, while Rodgers is a wild card despite a rough 2024. The running back market lacks elite talent, but 24-year-old Javonte Williams is intriguing. Wide receiver is the strongest position, with Chris Godwin, Amari Cooper and Stefon Diggs leading the way. Tight end, like quarterback, is underwhelming. There are a few players who could command significant touches depending on their landing spots, though. -- Eric Moody, fantasy football writer

Read more: Fantasy football free agency preview

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