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Fantasy hockey: Forecaster for the week of Jan. 6-12

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Published in Hockey
Sunday, 05 January 2020 08:04

That 2012 NHL draft still stings a little when you look at the top of it. First overall was Nail Yakupov, who is currently plugging away in Russia. Ryan Murray was second overall, and while he's a regular in the NHL, he still isn't logging an average of 20 minutes per game. Then there's Alex Galchenyuk, who went third overall.

He's currently on his second chance with his third-chance team - if that phrasing makes sense.

In six seasons with the Montreal Canadiens, he got to 30 goals in his fourth season, 2015-16. It looked like he was on the verge of becoming something, but the goals dried up over the next two years. And when he scored 19 but was a minus-31 in 2017-18, the Habs shipped him out to the desert.

Surely, the Arizona Coyotes was where Galchenyuk was really going to break out. There was minimal competition for power-play opportunities and ample offensive roles to go around. Nope. Instead, Galchenyuk's ice time dipped to an average of 15:44 by the end of the season and he finished with 19 goals again.

Ah, but the Pittsburgh Penguins needed to save some coin, so they flipped Phil Kessel for Galchenyuk this offseason and tabbed him to play next to Evgeni Malkin. But Malkin was hurt to start the year, and Galchenyuk had his own nagging injuries that kept the two apart. Galchenyuk didn't do much offensively and was unable to force himself onto the power play. He's played fewer than 10 minutes on several occasions this season. When Sidney Crosby was hurt, Galchenyuk was not in the mix for a promotion up the lines, and he had to watch as Malkin, Jake Guentzel and Bryan Rust became one of the best lines in hockey.

But after Guentzel plowed into the boards after scoring the winning goal on Monday, Galchenyuk is getting another shot with the Penguins. And it will be an extended one, as Guentzel will be gone for the remainder of the regular season.

Galchenyuk should be more comfortable in his new surroundings this time, and he started to subtly get his game going in the latter part of December. He had three points in three games prior to his promotion.

But the most important part of Galchenyuk becoming a thing for fantasy will still be the power play, where his above-average shot can do more damage. Jared McCann was given more time with the top unit in the Penguins first post-Guentzel game on Thursday, but it was Galchenyuk who helped set up a pseudo-power-play goal (the penalty had just expired, as Patric Hornqvist scored). We should see even more Galchenyuk on the power play in the Penguins next outing.

Is this finally going to be the chance Galchenyuk seizes?

Maybe not, but he's a free square in fantasy right now, so pick him up to see what happens.

It is, after all, Galchenyuk revenge week with the Penguins in Montreal on Saturday and in Arizona next Sunday.

Fantasy Forecaster: Jan. 6 to Jan. 12

It's a decently busy week in the NHL, with 50 games scheduled. Every team plays at least three times with the lone exception of the Minnesota Wild, who only play twice.

Eight teams play four games, so a slight edge can be had by leaning on players from the Arizona Coyotes, Columbus Blue Jackets, Los Angeles Kings, Montreal Canadiens, New Jersey Devils, Tampa Bay Lightning, Vancouver Canucks and Winnipeg Jets.

In particular for head-to-head leagues, the Jets play three of their four games on the less-busy nights next week (Monday, Wednesday and Sunday). If you can add Jack Roslovic to your roster, it could go a long way toward swinging your H2H matchup.

For those new to the forecaster chart, here are some explanations: "O" (offense), which is on the left for each game, and "D" (defense), on the right, matchup ratings are based upon a scale from 1 (poor matchup) to 10 (excellent matchup) and are calculated using a formula that evaluates the team's season-to-date statistics, their performance in home/road games depending on where the game is to be played, as well as their opponents' numbers in those categories. The "Ratings" column lists the cumulative rating from 1 to 10 of that week's offensive ("O") and defensive ("D") matchups.

In the notes below, the focus every week will be mainly on players that are available for potential use. Ownership below 50 percent of ESPN leagues is a good generalized cutoff. I'll try to also include players below 10 percent ownership whenever possible to cater to deeper formats.

Team notes

Montreal Canadiens: Brendan Gallagher leaves a gaping wound in the Habs lineup for as long as he will be out with a concussion. Gallagher, Tomas Tatar and Phillip Danault have been one of the best 5-on-5 lines in the NHL this season. In the meantime, Nick Cousins was given a crack at Gallagher's spot on Thursday and he responded with an assist (while not playing with his new 5-on-5 line; it was a pseudo-power-play goal that Jeff Petry scored). Given the circumstances and the four-game schedule, I do think Cousins could help in the short-term.

Columbus Blue Jackets: Go grab Elvis Merzlikins right away. Joonas Korpisalo will miss "weeks," according to coach John Tortorella. The Blue Jackets have found a system to drive wins and limit the scoring chances of their opponents, so it almost doesn't matter who is in net. It's not like Korpisalo was some prodigy waiting in the wings to lock down the Jackets crease this season; he's just a good goaltender in a great system. Natural Stat Trick shows the Blue Jackets are second best in the league at limiting their opponents high-danger scoring chances and tied for best in the league at limiting goals from high-danger chances. Merzlikins just needs to make the routine saves, as Korpisalo did before him, to be a fantasy difference-maker.

Player notes

Joonas Donskoi, W, Colorado Avalanche: We'll see how long it lasts, but Donskoi will be a thing again for as long as the Avalanche have him on the top line. Coach Jared Bednar dropped Mikko Rantanen to the third line to shake things up on Thursday, and it worked gangbusters in a 7-3 crushing of the St. Louis Blues. That means Donskoi could get a few more games alongside Nathan MacKinnon.

Adam Boqvist, D, Chicago Blackhawks: If you've been looking for help with your defense, go grab Boqvist. It's been three games since he was anointed the new power-play quarterback for the Blackhawks. While the results haven't been great, they've been no worse than when Erik Gustafsson was running point. Boqvist had a power-play helper on Thursday. He's young, but he has next-level offense to his game if he can translate it to the NHL. In his one season of OHL action, he potted 20 goals and 60 points in 54 games last year.

Kailer Yamamoto, W, Edmonton Oilers: With two points in two games, Yamamoto is off to the start I had envisioned for him last season. This 21-year-old never got the engine going last season, but has had a solid start to his AHL campaign this year. It resulted in a promotion to the NHL and a chance on a line with Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Leon Draisaitl this week. I've always been a big fan of the skill and the situation for Yamamoto and I am watching this time with heightened interest.

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