Rob Manfred is certain that Major League Baseball will take place this summer, but is hopeful that it will come as the result of a negotiated agreement with the MLB Players Association, a circumstance that feels unlikely in the midst of contentious, seemingly unproductive negotiations over the last few weeks.
Manfred, in his sixth year as MLB's commissioner, said in an interview with ESPN broadcaster Karl Ravech on Wednesday that the league will soon provide a "responsive proposal" to the latest offer from the MLBPA, which consisted of an 89-game season and full pro-rated salaries, and that he's "100 percent" sure there will be a season.
Manfred, speaking a little less than an hour before the start of a significantly shorter MLB draft, said the league's proposal will be "another significant move in the players' direction in terms of the salary issue that has kept us apart."
"We're hopeful that it will produce reciprocal movement from the Players' Association, that we'll see a number other than a hundred percent on salary, and some recognition that 89 games, given where we are in the calendar and the course of the pandemic, is not realistic," he added.
Players remain steadfast in their belief that they are owed their full pro-rated salaries based on an agreement made by both sides in March, while owners claim that the reality of hosting games with no fans means significant enough losses to warrant more financial concessions from players. Neither side has expressed a willingness to shift from their respective positions.
If an agreement can't be reached, Manfred has the autonomy to implement a shorter season -- it would reportedly consist of 48 games -- so long as players receive full pro-rated salaries. If that ends up being the case, sources have said, the MLBPA would likely then utilize their right to deny an expanded postseason and might even file a grievance. The concern, then, would center on how that animosity might spill into negotiations over a new Collective Bargaining Agreement, with the current one set to expire after the 2021 season.
"I would prefer to negotiate a new agreement with the MLBPA that gets us more games and resolves the issues that have separated us amicably," Manfred said. "But at the end of the day, we negotiated for the right in March to start the season on a number of games that we select in these particular circumstances. And if we have to, we'll exercise that right."
Manfred doesn't want the regular season to extend beyond September in order to guard against a potential second wave of the coronavirus and ensure that the postseason -- a crucial revenue generator because of the television money it will bring in -- is played.
The league's initial proposal called for an 82-game season and a system of tiered salary cuts that ultimately would have had its greatest impact on baseball's most famous, front-facing players. The union countered with a 114-game, full-pro-rata proposal that was wholly dismissed by baseball's owners. When the league submitted a proposal for a 76-gameseason and 75-percent pro-rated salaries on Monday morning, the players came back with an 89-game, full-pro-rata proposal on Tuesday afternoon, which also included and expanded postseason for the next two years and a regular season that would end Oct. 11.
Manfred made it a point to tell Ravech that baseball's revenues "are going to be down over 70 percent" in 2020. A potential deal might ultimately come down to whether the sides can find common ground between 89 and 48 games with full pro-rated salaries. Manfred stated that he would be "disappointed" if he had to utilize his power to implement a season that would be less than a third of the typical length.
"But you know what, I think at the end of the day the most important thing ... is that we play Major League Baseball in 2020," Manfred said. "And I can tell you unequivocally we are gonna play Major League Baseball this year."