Trying to predict a Six Nations champion is a dangerous business.
Just as reliably as the seasons change from winter to spring, a once favoured team falls to a shock defeat and suddenly an outside chance is chasing a Grand Slam.
Last year, it was Wales who stormed up the home straight to take the title.
This year, it seems tighter than ever, with only Italy - who have finished last every year since 2016 - considered out of the running.
Have a go at predicting your 2022 Six Nations table at the bottom of this page. To help you along the way, BBC Radio 5 Live's panel of former players have given their thoughts on each of the five teams who could bag the trophy.
Wales - 'The complete underdogs'
Last year: Winners
In the autumn: Suffered a heavy defeat by New Zealand, then lost to South Africa, before beating Fiji and Australia.
Former Wales captain Philippa Tuttiett: "Everyone's writing off Wales - we're the complete underdogs.
"We're missing some massive names [Lions Alun Wyn Jones, Ken Owens, Justin Tipuric, Taulupe Faletau, Josh Navidi, Dan Lydiate, George North and Leigh Halfpenny are all injured].
"Captain Alun Wyn Jones has been involved in every Six Nations for a long time - missing the likes of him is huge.
"The big names we're missing are the spine of our scrum so when it comes to set-piece we could be weakened.
"In the loose, the likes of Ellis Jenkins, Taine Basham and Aaron Wainwright are going to be really good for us - they're an athletic, agile back row that is going to be all over the rucks."
France - 'They need to deliver'
Last year: Second
In the autumn: Beat New Zealand, Argentina and Georgia.
Former France hooker Benjamin Kayser: "We've been waiting for a long time to win the Six Nations, since 2010 in fact.
"The calendar of the Six Nations is crucial. We have three home games, two away games, and one guy missing in the whole line-up - centre Arthur Vincent. You can't complain.
"The ticket of favourites is put on France which is something they're going to have to deal with.
"The country is buzzing - everyone is delighted to see a Six Nations with packed crowds - but this is usually the situation when we crash the most.
"That scares me but I hope this team has grown - the spine is strong so I'm really optimistic.
"The expectation is different because of the shadow of the 2023 World Cup which France will host.
"To be good they have to beat the best teams in the world, and in the autumn they beat New Zealand.
"But they also need to win titles. For that they need to deliver in this Six Nations."
Ireland - 'There is huge optimism'
Last year: Third
In the autumn: Beat New Zealand, Japan and Argentina
Former Ireland back Shane Horgan:
"The anxiety is building because Ireland are playing the best rugby they have in many years. If not quite favourites, they're not far off.
"If Ireland can transfer the form they undoubtedly had in the autumn into this Six Nations, they look pretty formidable.
"There is huge optimism around Ireland at the moment. The provinces are all performing, individuals are all performing.
"There was a long lead into getting Ireland into the shape that we all thought they could get into.
"Things changed in the England game in the last game of the 2021 Six Nations.
"That day we were playing a different brand of rugby - much more expansive, much less risk-averse. We saw a reduction in the amount of box-kicking, and were attacking from deep.
"We saw the skillset of our forwards being exploited - so much handling - and the depth was much better.
"There's the core components for a really successful Six Nations.
"While I'm cautiously optimistic about Ireland's chances, the fact they have to go away to France to try and turn them over there, against a reinvigorated side and supporters - my gut feeling is that's just a bridge too far."
Scotland - 'This has to be Scotland's year'
Last year: Fourth
In the autumn: Beat Tonga and Australia, then lost to South Africa before beating Japan
Former Scotland captain John Barclay: "Everyone is talking up Scotland but I'm trying to keep a level on it because I've been here so many times as a player.
"I'm bubbling with excitement but I've been burnt too many times. I'm a little bit nervous about people talking about Scotland the way they are.
"This Scotland side has to deliver at some point and I believe it needs to be this year because the players are in their prime.
"Picking up your home wins - Scotland have England and France - is vital and they've got to go away to Dublin on the last weekend, plus they've got to go to the Principality [in Cardiff] too, which hasn't been a happy hunting ground.
"I do believe this has to be Scotland's year - the quality is there. We saw that represented on the British and Irish Lions tour, but I also know how good the other teams are.
England - 'They have more slack and will benefit'
Last year: Fifth
In the autumn: Beat South Africa, Australia and Tonga
Former England captain Matt Dawson: "England have been hit by some injuries but this is the team that beat South Africa in the autumn - you would have thought they had no chance against the world champions.
"They were hanging on a little bit in the second half and they came through mentally and nicked it.
"It gives me a bit of confidence about this youthful England side and the laissez-faire mindset they seem to have.
"In the past, under Stuart Lancaster for example, it used to be quite on the leash.
"I think [head coach] Eddie Jones is giving them their own slack to play. I think it is going to benefit England in the long run."
Dawson, Horgan and Kayser all predict France will win the tournament, with Tuttiett going for Ireland. What do you think? Predict your final 2022 Six Nations table below.
Predict your 2022 Six Nations table
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