Luke Wells has signed for Lancashire on a two-year deal.

Wells, a top-order batsman who was tipped for England recognition not so long ago and has 18 first-class hundreds to his name, was somewhat surprisingly released by Sussex at the end of the season.

Wells finished the 2017 season as the club's highest County Championship run-scorer, averaging 64.60 in the competition that year. But he was unable to sustain such form over the next couple of seasons - he averaged in the mid-20s - and was not selected for a single Bob Willis Trophy match in 2020, with Sussex picking a developmental side. Having hardly played limited-overs cricket in recent years - he averages 11.60 in the List A game and just 3.60 in T20 - Wells found his old-school, obdurate style of batting a little out of a fashion at Hove.

For Lancashire, however, that may be just what is required. While the club gained promotion back into the Championship's top division at the end of 2019, they could not manage a single first-class century in 2020 and finished third in the North Group of the Bob Willis Trophy.

The scheduling of the Hundred could also favour him. With the tournament set to be played at the same time as the domestic List A competition, he could well have another opportunity to impress in the white-ball game. There was a time, not so long ago, when his legspin was seen as a useful tool in limited-overs cricket; in the 2018 season, only four men bowled more deliveries for Sussex in the Royal London One-Day Cup.

"Luke's record in first-class cricket speaks for itself," said Paul Allot, Lancashire's director of cricket. "He is a skilled batsman who values his wicket and has the ability to bat long periods of time. The opportunity to sign a player of his quality does not come around every day and was one we could not pass up on."

Lancashire have also announced the signing of former Nottinghamshire seamer Jack Blatherwick on a two-year-deal, following the retirement of Graham Onions and with Toby Lester released at the end of the season.

Blatherwick played a number of times for England Under-19s in 2017, but struggled for game time at Trent Bridge, making only five first-team appearances.

David Wiese will play for Sussex in next year's Vitality Blast as an overseas player.

Wiese, the 35-year-old South African allrounder, has been with Sussex since 2016 on a Kolpak registration, which expires at the end of the year following Britain's exit from the European Union.

"Sussex has been home for the last four seasons and I can't wait to be back," Wiese said. "We have had a fair amount of success in the Blast over the last few seasons, but hopefully we can take it a step further next season."

ALSO READ: Kirtley braced for high expectations on galáctico bowling attack

Sussex finished second in the South Group behind Surrey this year and were knocked of the competition by Lancashire in the quarter-finals. Wiese enjoyed a strong 2020 Blast season, scoring 281 runs at an average of 40.14, including a career-best 79 not out at Lord's to seal a Sharks victory against Middlesex.

His 171 against Hampshire in the 2019 Royal London Cup remains the highest one-day score in Sussex history.

James Kirtley, the club's newly appointed T20 head coach, said: "It's fantastic news that David will be with us next season for the Blast. It will give us peace of mind knowing that a player of David's class will be available for the whole of the tournament.

"He plays a number of roles for us in our T20 side and he continues to play match-winning innings such as the one at Lord's this season."

The Federation of International Cricketers' Associations (FICA), the game's global players' body, has criticised the ICC and its member boards for failing to show "enough of a willingness to prioritise and act on" the issue of systematic contract breaches in sanctioned cricket.

Earlier this year, FICA's annual report found that 34% of current players have experienced issues with late or non-payment in events or leagues approved by the ICC or its members, highlighting problems with six tournaments including the Bangladesh Premier League and the Abu Dhabi T10. And, at its virtual annual meeting this week, FICA said in a media statement that its board had "resolved to continue to focus on global solutions in response to the growing and significant statistics on player non-payment and late payment" in such events.

Tom Moffat, FICA's chief executive, said that the body had proposed "clear global solutions" and that players "deserve to play in a regulatory environment that protects them, not just the ICC and boards". Moffat told ESPNcricinfo that FICA has highlighted two potential solutions in particular: contract minimum standards and contract enforcement mechanisms.

One lawyer explained earlier this year that many contracts in T20 leagues are "cut-and-paste jobs". Moffat explained that minimum standards were necessary "to ensure a basic level of fairness in all sanctioned cricket". "There is no point in having enforcement mechanisms to enforce "bad" contracts," he said.

"There is precedent for these sorts of measures in other global sports and given the direction of travel in cricket, with the growth of the domestic leagues landscape, private ownership, and a more club-based model, cricket should be taking learnings from those sports. We believe global solutions are necessary as the problem is global" FICA chief executive Tom Moffat

Possible mechanisms for enforcing contracts are upheld, including escrow payments, by which funds are kept in the custody of a third party and paid out when specific conditions have been fulfilled. Moffat said that FICA had proposed "central bank account requirements with player representative oversight" and "the establishment of a fit-for-purpose global arbitration tribunal set up to deal with employment-related disputes".

"There is precedent for these sorts of measures in other global sports and given the direction of travel in cricket, with the growth of the domestic leagues landscape, private ownership, and a more club-based model, cricket should be taking learnings from those sports," Moffat said. "We believe global solutions are necessary as the problem is global, the ICC's sanctioned cricket regulations currently regulate players globally, and we believe those regulations should protect players, not just the ICC and boards."

While the ICC's management has expressed some support for such enforcement mechanisms, it does not have jurisdiction over domestic leagues, which are instead run by member boards, and as a result is unable to sanction them with regards to payment.

Also on the agenda at FICA's meeting was the issue of players' commercial rights, as revealed by ESPNcricinfo last month. Moffat said that the likelihood of litigation being brought forward left him unable to go into detail, but confirmed that there were "several ongoing issues relating to the use of player attributes and content by the ICC and its partners for commercial purposes".

Heath Mills, the chief executive of the New Zealand Players' Association and a board member for the last 18 years, has been appointed chairman following the culmination of Tony Irish's term in the role. Irish, who left his role at the Professional Cricketers' Association in the UK earlier this year for family reasons, will continue to sit as an independent board member. The Dutch Cricketers' Association has also joined FICA, becoming the tenth players' body to do so.

England's white-ball tour of South Africa, which starts at the end of the month, could be at risk of being called off unless Cricket South Africa's Members' Council tonight ratifies the interim board South Africa's sports minister Nathi Mthethwa imposed on the organisation two weeks ago.

Yesterday, the Members' Council made public its decision not to appoint the interim board citing an inability to work with them. Mthethwa has since threatened to sanction CSA, which includes withdrawing recognition of them as the game's official governing body in this country, if they do not allow the interim board to proceed. Should CSA's Members Council not relent and Mthethwa intervene, South Africa will not have a official team to represent the country, thus making the England tour impossible.

"I don't know what the thinking is in England but if the Members Council does not take a proper decision this evening, England will probably be seriously discouraged from coming," Judge Zak Yacoob, the chair of the interim board, told the media.

CSA's Member's Council - the highest-decision-making body in the organisation which is made up of the 14 provincial presidents - meets tonight and has so far, shown no signs of willingness to co-operate with the interim board.

England are due to arrive in South Africa on Monday for a 10-day quarantine period with fixtures scheduled to begin on November 27.

More to follow

The Golden State Warriors have presented an ambitious plan to state and local officials to re-open Chase Center in San Francisco at 50 percent capacity for this NBA season, which owner Joe Lacob believes can be the model for all sports franchises and entertainment venues to safely bring back fans amidst the COVID-19 pandemic.

Lacob said the Warriors are prepared to spend upwards of $30 million to test every fan, Warriors employee or player with the most accurate form of COVID-19 testing for each home game or day they come to work at Chase Center.

"I not only want to get this done and show the world how we can do it now, I'm willing to spend the money to do it," said Lacob, who holds a master's degree in public health from UCLA, and built his fortune as a venture capitalist in biotechnology. "This is a serious, serious problem. It cannot go on for multiple years ... because if this were to go on for several years, the NBA is no more.

"You cannot sustain this league with no fans. You can do it for a year. We'll all get by for a year. But suppose we're in this situation next year. Now we're talking some serious, serious financial damage to a lot of people."

Lacob said he and a team of Warriors employees have been working nonstop on this plan, internally called "Operation DubNation," since the NBA shut down March 11.

It hinges on the use of rapid, PCR (polymerase chain reaction) tests or equivalent amplification technologies which can detect traces of the virus' genetic material in nasal or throat swabs within 15 minutes, and are far more accurate than rapid antigen tests, which look for a protein that is present on the surface of the virus, that is shed.

The NBA used the more accurate PCR tests as it completed its season in Orlando, but results largely came back overnight as samples were tested in a nearby lab. Major League Baseball also used PCR tests, but results often took more than 24 hours as samples were sent to a lab in Utah-contributing to the unfortunate situation in Game 6 of the World Series in which Los Angeles Dodgers third baseman Justin Turner was pulled from the game in the eighth inning after his test results came back positive.

Rapid PCR tests or equivalents have only become available in the last few months -with Hollywood studios among the first to benefit from them as the industry resumed production. The NBA also used them this summer and fall, testing thousands of samples, which helped the Warriors in devising their plans.

Thus far three companies, Mesa Biotech, Visby and CUEHealth have earned FDA approval and are ramping up in volume of production, which Lacob said is the key breakthrough enabling the Warriors to meet the volume of tests they will need.

They are currently far more expensive than rapid antigen tests and far less readily available, which led the New York Times to call them "the new velvet rope" when it comes to parties, entertainment events or gatherings for the well-heeled.

But Lacob believes it is essential to use the more expensive, rapid-PCR test because it is close to 99 percent accurate in detecting the virus in people, even before they become infectious. Experts think that rapid antigen tests, which are what the White House has been using, could miss 30-50 percent of people who have enough viral load to be infectious.

"The White House used less sensitive tests, meaning that they're going to have more false negatives," said Dr. George Rutherford, a professor of epidemiology and biostatistics at UCSF, who has reviewed the plans the Warriors submitted to state and city public health officials last week. "The Warriors are planning on using the most accurate, most sensitive tests we have, and that's a big difference. I don't think anybody else could do anything more than they've done. This is as close to making it as close to perfect a plan as I've seen for anything reopening."

The Warriors plan also calls for everyone who enters Chase Center to wear a mask, keep social distance and a state-of-the-art air filtration system which has the capability to use 100 percent outside air, or purge the full building's air supply and replace it four times in an hour if necessary.

In a memo sent to teams on Wednesday, the NBA set forth guidelines that only required testing of fans seated within 30 feet of the court. Fans would be required to undergo and return a negative coronavirus test that is either a PCR or equivalent test, sampled no more than two days prior to the game tip off; or an NBA-approved antigen test or a rapid virus amplification test (such as PCR, LAMP or Isothermal) sampled the day of the game.

However only certain areas of the country are allowing fans to attend sporting events at this time.

California has not approved fans in any capacity since the pandemic began, and San Francisco announced this week it was rolling back a number of re-openings-including indoor dining and capacity at gyms and movie theaters-with the recent rise in coronavirus cases in the Bay Area and statewide. The Los Angeles Lakers announced Wednesday that games at Staples Center would be held "without fans" until further notice. Lacob believes that his plan will eventually be approved by city and state public health officials, once he explains and proves the science behind it.

"Let us prove the concept. Let us use our money, our resources, our 7-8 months of work, our expertise to prove the concept," Lacob said. "That's what I'm trying to get the state, the city and the government to entertain. "This (rapid-PCR) test is orders of magnitude more accurate than the (rapid antigen) test at the [White House] Rose Garden event. This is the best you can do. A lot of people don't even know these tests exist yet, and they are ramping them up.

"By springtime, the rapid PCR tests will be manufactured in amounts nearing 100,000 per day by some of these companies. But I'm trying to show the world, trying to show the sports world in particular, and California, a way to do this. A safe way to have people come to an event and be totally safe walking in that building. The numbers bear it out."

Team president Rick Welts said this endeavor to re-open Chase Center might even be a bigger challenge than navigating all the political hurdles he had to deal with in getting it built.

"Chase Center has now been closed more days than it was open," Welts said. "It's something that's hard to even get my head around. We never felt out of control of the process with Chase Center, because as many obstacles as there were, we were really confident we could overcome them. And this one, there's just so much that's not in our control, and so much less known about what we're trying to solve, and such a different level of expertise, that it's incredibly hard to get a consensus on.

"But to have Joe with the background that he has is incredible. It's been fascinating to listen, especially to Joe, in calls with doctors and things where he stands toe-to-toe with the knowledge that virtually any doctor has about different types of testing and advantages and disadvantages and efficacy of how they work.

"It's been really, from an intellectual standpoint, fascinating, but incredibly complicated trying to learn so much about something that no one had heard of nine months ago." Welts said that the public health officials he's dealt with, including Dr. Rutherford, have so far been very receptive and interested in learning about the Warriors plans. In a recent visit to the team's old practice facility in Oakland, Welts said California Governor Gavin Newsom spent about an hour with team officials, asking questions about the plan.

"He was very up to speed on our plan. He definitely was curious about what we were doing and why we're doing it the way we're doing it," Welts said. "The governor has been great about learning about what our plan has been. But, I guess for obvious reasons, he wants to hear from his health officials before he weighs in on the impact."

ESPN reached out to Dr. Mark Ghaly, California's Secretary for Health and Human Services, whom the Warriors submitted their plan to, as well as Dr. Tomas Aragon, San Francisco's health officer. Neither returned emails seeking comment on the plan.

The San Francisco Department of Health did issue a statement to ESPN, saying, "We have received the Warriors proposal and are in the processing of reviewing it in context of the current surge of COVID-19 cases in San Francisco, the Bay Area and the state."

However Rick Klausner, a member of the Rockefeller Foundation task force that has advised the National Governors Association and cities like Los Angeles, Detroit and New Orleans on their testing strategies during the pandemic, said he has reviewed the Warriors plans and that his only concern is the logistics of testing upwards of 10,000 fans and employees each game night.

"The idea is great," Klausner said. "I think the idea is safe, it's doable. Pulling off the logistics is hard, but if Joe is able to work out the logistics and do this right ... he needs to document everything because that needs to be made available to everyone. We do need successful models, whether it's opening up schools or opening up the entertainment industry, et cetera.

"So I think it's superb that Joe is trying to do this. From a technical and scientific and medical perspective, I feel comfortable that if he can pull it off, with rapid PCR tests, masks, using the decreased density and mass, I personally think this is safe."

Klausner suggested it may be better to attempt the plan with 1,000 fans or 2,000 fans first, to work out the logistics. But otherwise said it would be of great public health benefit to test so many people, and contribute data to the scientific community.

The Warriors initial plan calls for fans to be tested onsite at Chase Center, or at drive up locations around the Bay Area within 48 hours of the game. They have partnered with CLEAR, the company that uses corneal scans and finger prints to identify pre-approved air travelers, to link test results to the ticket holder on a mobile device.

The Warriors did not play the final 17 games on their schedule, which Lacob estimated cost them $50 million in revenue. If they were to play this season with no fans, he estimated they could lose another $400 million in revenue and $200 million on the bottom line. Spending $30 million on a comprehensive plan to re-open their arena at 50 percent capacity is well worth it financially. But Lacob said that was not the driving force behind the project.

"I want people to understand this is not the Warriors just trying to make more money," he said. "Yes, we're trying to get fans and get revenue, but I'm trying to set a standard. I'm trying to show the world how this can be done, safely.

"There are many, many thousands and thousands of people in the sports, entertainment businesses, not just basketball, that are out of work. They cannot put food on the table. They cannot provide for their kids. Their kids aren't in school. They've got to take care of them. What are they going to do about childcare?

"There's so many reasons why we have to figure out ways short of the vaccine being a cure all to allow people to get back to work, allow people to work at our venues. There's thousands of people, 500 Warrior employees and 1,500 on a game day, but beyond that, there's all the vendors. There's so many people that are relying on this and don't have jobs.

"Someone needs to step up and show not only the sports world, but actually show the world how we can still resume some parts of normal life while we're fighting this virus and waiting for the vaccine."

Lacob said he's been in close touch with NBA Commissioner Adam Silver and Dave Weiss, the league's senior vice president of player matters, who leads its health and safety efforts. When asked about the Warriors plans, Weiss told ESPN:

"Joe Lacob and the Warriors have put in an incredible amount of work and thought to develop an innovative approach to testing that could help fans attend Warriors games this season. The safety of the NBA players, staff and fans is paramount, and we're continuing to work with the Warriors and other teams on testing plans, along with protocols that include additional important public health measures."

Scottish Athletics CEO taking on new role

Mark Munro has been announced as director of development at UK Athletics (UKA).

He has played a pivotal role in delivering the successful development strategy across athletics in Scotland, having joined the organisation in May 2011 and served as CEO to Scottish Athletics since 2016.

He will take up his new position as part of the national governing body’s senior leadership team in the new year.

“The UKA role, which will oversee essential areas including coaching, officiating and safeguarding, will also help set the strategic and cultural direction of the organisation aligned to the UK wide strategy developed jointly with the home country athletics federations (HCAFs),” said UKA.

READ MORE: Ambitious 12-year plan for athletics in Britain launched

Munro said: “Having been involved in athletics in Scotland since the age of eight, to have then become head of development and subsequently CEO for Scottish Athletics has been a massive honour and privilege.

“It has been fantastic to have witnessed the growth and success of the sport in Scotland over the last decade, and the clubs, coaches, officials and athletes have performed to such a high level and raised the bar to the height at which it stands today – for that I will always be grateful.

“However, I am hugely excited about my new role as development director at UK Athletics,” added the former hill running age-group international. “Development has always been a passion of mine and this is a great opportunity to connect the development of the sport across UKA and the home country athletics federations, given the progress on a unified strategy in the last six months.

“I am looking forward to help provide the strategic direction across the sport for the areas of safeguarding, coaching (development), officiating and facilities, as well as overseeing the connectivity of development in collaboration with the HCAFs focusing on club networks and systems, participation and education.”

READ MORE: UKA announces new Standards, Ethics and Rules Committee

UKA CEO Joanna Coates said: “I’m delighted that Mark will be joining us to deliver this crucial role for UKA and the HCAFs. It was important that we appointed someone from the sport with excellent sports development and leadership credentials and an impressive ability to coordinate across both UKA and HCAFs.

“I’m looking forward to working with him closely to deliver the unified strategy and also in finalising the UKA strategy.”

Scottish Athletics will shortly begin the process of seeking a replacement CEO.

"If you are interested in something, no matter what it is, go at it at full speed ahead. Embrace it with both arms, hug it, love it and above all become passionate about it. Lukewarm is no good."

And they are in her game.

The 21-year-old might be the most thrilling runner in the English game right now. Men's, women's, 15s, sevens. Anywhere.

Two minutes into her debut for Wasps last month, she cut Harlequins' defence to ribbons with a searing 60-metre score.

Four minutes into her return to England action in the Women's Six Nations a fortnight ago, she jagged twice off her right foot to leave the Italian cover defence on the seat of their shorts.

To use Dahl's words, full speed ahead is all she knows.

"If I was asked to coach someone what I see when I get the ball in my hands, I don't know if I could," she told BBC Sport.

"I look to see if there are any mismatches. If I have a forward or a wing coming toward me, it will alter what I do. But it is very much instinct, looking up, seeing where the gaps are, where shoulders and hips have been turned and going at it 100%."

This weekend, she starts at full-back in the international against France. The aim is to allow her electric pace to frazzle broken-field defence.

To get to this stage, though, she has had to cling tight to her rugby ambitions. There have been plenty of times when it would have been easier to let go.

As a nine-year-old growing up in West Yorkshire, she would play rugby league for Keighley Albion before crossing town and codes to play union for Keighley the next day. In both codes, she would be the only girl on the pitch. Every weekend, the opposition would give her the same look. Every weekend, she would give them the same treatment.

"Playing on a boys' team, I just loved the pressure of proving myself," she remembered.

"I wanted to make a statement. 'You are looking over your shoulder and laughing, but just wait, you won't be doing that next time we play.'

At her school, the girls played netball, the boys played rugby. That was how it was - until 11-year-old Kildunne arrived and said she would wear shorts rather than a skirt for games afternoon.

She was grudgingly given a shot in the B team. She scored a hat-trick.

"They moved me up to the A team and the boys didn't take it well. It is that age where some boys are 6ft 2in with a really deep voice and others are 4ft and could pass for eight years old," said Kildunne.

"The boy who went back into the B team was one of the six-footers. They were all: 'Oh no, we've lost George for a girl.' I went on to win back of the year though."

Those sceptics have long since turned to converts. Kildunne's school-mates saw her fly to Las Vegas to play sevens aged 17. They saw her scoring at Twickenham for England a year later. Plenty enviously clicked her jet-set montage of life on the 2020 Sevens circuit, playing around and playing hard all over the world.

Next year, they are likely to be watching her playing in the World Cup in New Zealand.

But they also know the hard work. The graft behind her craft. Others still need telling.

"I have had a lot of conversations, not preach, not to rant, but to educate," Dunne said. "If I am watching my brother play rugby, there are men on the sideline who don't understand anything about the women's game.

"And it isn't just men. I speak to friends at home and some of them can't believe how hard we train, how hard we tackle. But why wouldn't we?

"I speak about what I do with a lot of pride. And it is getting better. More women are standing up and saying: 'This is what we are; this is what we do.'

"With the BBC showing the game this weekend, dads are going to see role models for their daughters, girls are going to get interested. It opens opportunities, it reaches more people."

Whether the French defence can reach Kildunne, though, is another thing.

Arsenal captain Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang has defended his goal celebrations that involve him wearing the masks of different superheroes after being criticised by Real Madrid midfielder Toni Kroos.

Speaking on his Einfach mal Luppen podcast, Germany international Kroos said this week that he was not a fan of the former Borussia Dortmund striker's celebrations and did not believe it was the behaviour of a good role model.

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"By the way. Does this @ToniKroos have kids? Just to remember I did it for my son few times and I will do it again," Aubameyang said in a post on Twitter that was accompanied by a picture of him in a cape, as drawn by a child.

"I wish you have kids one day and make them happy like these junior school pupils. Talk and don't forget #maskon #staysafe."

By the way
Does this @ToniKroos have Kids?
Just to remember i did it for my son few Times and i will do it again
I wish you have Kids one day and make them happy like this Junior School pupils Talk ???? and don't Forget #maskon #staysafe ?bis https://t.co/J4ZF1XGlsU

— Aubameyang P-E (@Aubameyang7) November 12, 2020

Kroos had also criticised Antoine Griezmann for performing dance moves from the video game Fortnite after scoring goals.

Aubameyang wore a Black Panther mask after scoring a brace against Rennes in Arsenal's Europa League round-of-16 second-leg match in March 2019. He did so again in August 2020 after scoring against Liverpool as a sign of respect for the actor Chadwick Boseman following his death.

He has also worn Batman and Spiderman masks in the past.

The striker has scored two goals in the Premier League this season and will look to add to his tally when Arsenal travel to Leeds United on Nov. 22 following the international break.

USMNT star Giovanni Reyna has signed a new long term contract with Bundesliga giants Borussia Dortmund, sources have told ESPN.

Dortmund have not disclosed the length of the deal but sources said Reyna, 18 on Friday, has signed a new deal that would last until 2024.

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The young forward made his USMNT debut on Thursday against Wales and is regarded as one of the most promising talents in the Bundesliga.

Sources have told ESPN there was interest in Reyna from the Premier League and La Liga, but he was focused solely on continuing his career with Dortmund.

Reyna signed an initial three-year deal when he agreed to join Dortmund from MLS side New York City in November 2018. He arrived at BVB in July 2019 and went on to make his debut in February 2020.

He has been an ever-present this season, making 12 appearances for Dortmund, scoring twice, and contributing five assists.

"Right now, I am very, very happy here, and that is all that counts," Reyna said in September.

"Dortmund is not a stepping-stone to me. It is a club that is fighting for titles. The incredible fans alone make Dortmund something special."

Reyna is part of Borussia's highly rated bunch of young attackers along with Jadon Sancho and Erling Haaland.

Dortmund are also set to hand teenage centre forward Youssoufa Moukoko first-team action after he celebrates his 16th birthday on Nov. 20.

Reyna's debut for the USMNT was due to happen earlier this year, but the fixture schedule was interrupted due to COVID-19. Reyna has now followed in father Claudio's footsteps in playing for the USMNT.

ESPN's Tom Hamilton contributed to this report.

As we find ourselves immersed in international break No. 17 of the young European soccer season (OK, it's No. 3), it's a pretty good time to step back and absorb the chaos that we've witnessed one-fifth of the way through. The funkiness resulting from a blink-and-you-miss-it offseason, along with a loaded schedule for Europe's top teams, have resulted in all sorts of strange results and dropped points. Granted, Bayern and Paris Saint-Germain are again looking like the class of the Bundesliga and Ligue 1, respectively, but both La Liga and Serie A are more wide open than they've been in years.

From the perspective of pure oddity, however, everything else pales in comparison to what we've seen from the Premier League. Not only are a whopping nine teams within five points of the top of the Premier League table -- last year, Liverpool had already established an eight-point lead on the field at this point -- but Manchester City, Manchester United and Arsenal aren't even among those nine!

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- Predict results in ESPN's English Soccer Pick 'Em!
- ESPN+ viewer's guide: Bundesliga, Serie A, MLS, FA Cup and more

Back in September, I previewed the European season with certain sets of statistical factors:

- Efficiency and finishing factors: Goal differentials, expected goal differentials, scoring in the first 60 minutes of games and the second half of the season, etc.
- Turnover and field factors: Primarily, who's starting more possessions in the attacking third
- Possession factors: Possession rate, passes per possession, long ball attempts and completions, etc.
- Regression-to-the-mean factors: Points per game in close matches, save percentages, set-piece goals, red cards, things that, if extreme, tend to revert over time (and bring your results with them)

The goal was to look at the things that have the most direct impact on both year-to-year and month-to-month success. Early in a given season, these stats can tell us quite a bit about what of the early chaos is sustainable and what will likely revert to form soon.

All five leagues deserve a deep dive; they all have interesting stories to tell, from the stagnation of certain superclubs (Barcelona, Juventus, the Manchesters and, to a degree, PSG and Real Madrid), to La Liga's identity crisis (Atletico Madrid: scoring and possession leaders), to RB Leipzig's across-the-board solidity post-Timo Werner, to the incredible and not altogether unexpected title race that is taking shape in Serie A.

For today, though, we'll put nearly all of our focus on the wackiest league to date: the Premier League.

What a delightful mess the Premier League has been so far

- 1st60GD = goal differential in the first 60 minutes of matches. Game state can make things odd late, but controlling the more neutral portions of the game is conducive to more long-term success
- PossStartA3 = possessions starting in the attacking third; the more frequently you begin possessions deep in opposing territory, the more likely you are to create high-quality scoring chances

Of the five clubs averaging two or more points per game, only two are among the league's six richest clubs. Aston Villa have gone from barely surviving relegation in 2019-20 to leading the way in scoring and goal differential. Liverpool, Manchester United and Manchester City have all suffered jarring blowout losses.

Southampton is ahead of both Liverpool and City in goal differential, and while the xG numbers make a little more sense -- Liverpool, Tottenham Hotspur and Chelsea are the top three clubs in that regard -- Villa and Leicester are still fourth and fifth in xGD. City is eighth, behind Brighton. Up is down, left is right, etc.

(The best of last week's election-themed meme tweets, by the way. Topical, funny... and containing more than a kernel of honesty, as we know that, like other counts, this one won't stop either, and we know some of these oddities will right themselves over time.)

In fact, some of them already have. Everton have lost three straight after a torrid start while Leeds, who scored a run of early points despite serious xG disadvantages, have lost three of their last four matches -- two of them by 4-1 margins.

Despite early dysfunction, Manchester City is still the No. 2 betting favorite behind Liverpool, and there's reason for that. Still, the longer this set of unexpected runs of form go -- the longer Villa and Southampton crank out points, the longer that United, Arsenal and City leak points, the more the injury bug takes bites out of Liverpool, etc. -- the more it's going to alter the final table.

Possession doesn't mean as much as it used to (for now)

- Pass/Poss = passes per possession
- Long ball = a pass more than 35 yards that is aimed at a teammate (i.e. not just hurled downfield)

Possession numbers have correlated quite well with success in recent years, both because of the effects it has on field position and scoring chances and because, well, the richer (read: more likely to succeed) clubs mostly play the possession game.

Early in 2020-21, however, possession hasn't correlated all that well. Among the top five teams in possession rate, only one is in the top five in points per game; meanwhile, three of the top eight possession teams are in the bottom six in points per game. It seems there are points to be gained by remaining organized defensively, conserving energy here and there, and striking vertically when the opportunity presents itself.

In a recent New York Times newsletter, writer Rory Smith paraphrased Bayern Munich manager Hansi Flick: "The bulk of Europe's superpowers favor a style that has to work perfectly, according to Flick's estimation, to work at all... In these highly specific circumstances, this slog of a season, they may be more vulnerable than normal." We'll see how long it remains that way, but it's definitely been the case thus far: while the correlation between possession rates and points per game was a solid 0.74 from 2010-11 through 2019-20 (the closer to 1, the stronger the correlation), it's only 0.54 in the early stages of 2020-21.

Aside from Villa, the most interesting team in the league to me at the moment is the one led by the possession master: Pep Guardiola and his Manchester City.

The Sky Blues fit an odd profile last year, dominating from an xG perspective (more than Liverpool, even) but randomly getting sliced up by counterattacks and high-quality scoring chances, dropping a lot more points than the underlying numbers suggested they should have. The blueprint for beating City -- not to mention plenty of other teams with the possession-and-pressing style -- had been pretty clear for a while, but it appeared both that more teams were capable of executing it and City was occasionally less capable of stopping it.

This season, on the other hand, they've just been mediocre. They're currently on pace for just 65 points -- usually good for about fifth place average -- and unlike the last go-round, this isn't simply a case of luck. They are eighth in expected goal differential, after all. Injuries have slowed City's attack and while they're still attempting fewer long balls than anyone else in the league, they're also completing only 55% of the passes they attempt, down from 65% last year. (Letting veteran David Silva leave for Real Sociedad probably hasn't helped with this.)

Like many teams during this congested schedule, Guardiola appears to be easing off the pressure a bit -- City is allowing 11.8 passes per defensive action (eighth in the league) as opposed to last season's 10.1 (third) -- and as a result, opponents are controlling the ball a bit more than before. But this isn't doing anything for the quality of shots City are allowing and it fits the same profile as last year: City are fourth in the league in shots allowed per possession and first in the percentage of opponents' possessions finishing in the attacking third ... but they're also second-worst in xG allowed per shot. The drop-off in aggression has contributed to offensive stagnation but hasn't helped the defense as much as Guardiola probably hoped.

Will he fix these issues? The odds are pretty good; he's still got both a track record and a big payroll. But in an environment where possession might not mean as much as it used to, Guardiola's fixes will have to be particularly good.

Regression always looms

- xGD(L) = a team's xG differential in losses. The higher it is, the more unlucky you've likely been while dropping points. The lower it is, the more dominant your opponent has been
- ClosePPG = points per game in matches decided by 0-1 goals. Higher-quality teams fare better than lower-quality teams here, but if you're TOO successful or unsuccessful, regression-to-the-mean will likely follow
- Save% and GoalSetPly = save percentage and set-piece goals, respectively. Some teams have better keepers and perform better on set pieces, but as with ClosePPG, if the margins are too high or low, regression is probably on its way
- Red+2Y = red cards and second yellows. They can drastically impact a given match, and they're pretty random overall. If you have benefited from them, you probably won't continue to

Liverpool was the league's best team last season, but the Reds' average of 2.5 points per game in close matches was almost guaranteed to regress. It has, but only so much. They beat Leeds, Sheffield United and West Ham each by one goal and drew with Everton and Manchester City. Their only loss was by five to Villa. This average will probably slip a bit more, but it's at least in a more rational and sustainable range.

Other regression-to-the-mean line items since last season: Chelsea's save percentage margin has improved significantly, and last year's three best teams from a set-pieces perspective (Liverpool, City, Burnley) have all completely regressed.

Liverpool has been also beset by another regression issue that we'll probably need to figure out how to add to the table at some point: injuries.

Few teams had a more stable lineup than the Reds last year. Seven players logged at least 80% of Liverpool's available minutes in league play in 2019-20; across Europe's Big Five leagues, only Wolves (nine) and Athletic Bilbao (eight) could top that. But among those seven players were all-world centre-back Virgil van Dijk (out for months with knee ligament damage), full-back Trent Alexander-Arnold (out for a few weeks with a calf issue) and winger Sadio Mane (missed time due to a coronavirus diagnosis).

Key van Dijk fill-in Fabinho (67% of available minutes this year) could miss time because of a hamstring complaint, and Liverpool's other starting centre-back, Joe Gomez (82% of available minutes this year), injured his knee this week in national team training and is set to miss the rest of the 2020-21 season. (Tell me again why we have international breaks at all right now?)

The combination of wear and tear from this odd year, coronavirus diagnoses and old-fashioned injury woes have conspired against the defending champs in ways that they very much did not last season. (Wolves and Athletic, the two teams more stable than Liverpool last year, have each suffered from freshly unstable lineups, too.)

Progression and regression candidates

The shading above signifies who might be doing a little bit too well or too poorly in a given category. Blue means regression potential, orange signifies progression.

-- Teams with blue shading in at least four categories (i.e. most likely regression candidates): Aston Villa, Everton, Crystal Palace, Newcastle United

--Teams with orange shading in at least four categories (teams most likely to improve): Brighton, West Brom. Chelsea, Fulham, Burnley and Sheffield United each have three orange categories

What it all means going forward

In case you needed a reminder that the season is still extremely young, check out FiveThirtyEight's club soccer projections. The 538 elo ratings are conservative and slow-moving by nature -- most good projection systems tend to be that way -- and the current league favorites are exactly the same as before the season began. Manchester City leads the way with a 46% chance, while Liverpool is second at 28%.

Despite all the iffy early play, City's odds have fallen only 11 percentage points from 57% in the preseason, and their impressive Champions League form has helped to back up the thought that while they're not running at full-steam at the moment, they're also not totally broken.

It's not hard to see this race remaining pretty wide open in the coming months, however. Maybe not "nine teams within five points" open, but open. City indeed isn't cranking in fifth gear yet, and Liverpool's lineup is in dramatic flux. Who are perhaps the most likely candidates to take advantage if neither of these two teams can mount a charge at 85+ points?

Chelsea. The regression-to-the-mean categories above indeed smile on them a bit, and after a shaky start their form improved in the weeks prior to international break No. 193, as more of their key players approached full fitness.

Chelsea's past four matches since a 0-0 draw at Manchester United: a 4-0 win at Krasnodar, 3-0 home wins over Burnley and Rennes, and a 4-1 win over Sheffield United. They're only three points off of the top of the table. New additions Timo Werner (five goals, one assist) and Hakim Ziyech (two goals, three assists, nine chances created) and Ben Chilwell (one goal, three chances) shined in this stretch, too, and they get Newcastle United and reeling Leeds and Everton among their next four league matches. We could be talking about them as leaders soon.

Leicester City. We should probably acknowledge the leaders, yeah? Leicester were one of the stories of the early season last year, holding onto second place into January before fading and barely missing the Champions League. Well, this year the Foxes are four points ahead of last year's pace through eight matches, and they've reinvented themselves a bit in the absence of vital defensive midfielder Wilfred Ndidi.

Manager Brendan Rodgers has eased significantly off when it comes to defensive pressure and is slowing the tempo down, but Leicester are still winning at a high level. They are finishing fewer possessions in the attacking third than their opponents, which will likely cause regression at some point, but when Ndidi returns Rodgers might open things up more, too.

Tottenham Hotspur. Spurs might have the most complete statistical profile at the moment. They are third in goals scored per match, second in goals allowed, tied for second in goal differential, second in xG differential and first in first-60-minutes goal differential. Regression factors don't hoist up any massive red flags, either.

Spurs have been glitchy at times, needing late goals to get by Burnley and West Brom along with a shocking loss to Royal Antwerp in the Europa League, but they have been as stable as anyone, and we haven't yet seen the full effects of late-transfer-window acquisitions like Gareth Bale or Carlos Vinicius. In the preseason I considered them, at worst, a serious contender for a Champions League bid, and at the moment they might have a legit case for a run at a bigger prize.