A Premier League footballer accused of rape has been questioned by police for a second time as the investigation into multiple allegations continues, sources have told ESPN.

The player, who is in his 30s, went to a police station on Nov. 7 and was interviewed under caution.

The player, who cannot be named for legal reasons, has continued to play for his club ever since his initial arrest at an address in London on suspicion of rape in July 2022. The alleged rape in question happened in June 2022.

While in custody, he was further arrested on suspicion of two incidents of rape alleged to have taken place in April and June of 2021 against a different woman in her 20s.

In February 2023, the man was interviewed under caution for a sexual offence said to have taken place in February 2022. This relates to a third victim. He was then interviewed last week as the investigation continues.

A Metropolitan Police statement provided to ESPN read: "Met officers are investigating following a number of reports of alleged sexual offences between 2021 and 2023.

"A man in his 30s was arrested in July 2022. He has since been has been interviewed by police on two further occasions while under caution. The investigation remains ongoing and detectives are continuing with in-depth and detailed enquiries.

"Those who have come forward to police continue to receive support from Met officers."

The police will not take any further action over the alleged offence in June 2021 because the relevant legislation had not come into effect at the time it was said to have occurred.

Additional reporting by Gustavo Hofman.

Vinícius Júnior didn't win the Ballon d'Or last month, but try telling Real Madrid fans that he didn't deserve it. "Vinícius, Ballon d'Or," the crowd at the Santiago Bernabeu sang on Saturday, over and over again, as the forward scored a hat trick in Madrid's 4-0 LaLiga win over Osasuna.

It was Vinícius' second Bernabeu hat trick in just 2 weeks. On Oct. 22, against Borussia Dortmund in the Champions League, he scored three times in the second half, helping Madrid secure a 5-2 comeback. The performance had journalists in the Bernabeu press box asking if this was the best 45 minutes of Vinícius' career to date.

And it's not just the fans, or the media. Jude Bellingham called Vinícius "unstoppable" after the Osasuna game. "He's a leader for us," Bellingham said. Madrid coach Carlo Ancelotti has no doubts, either. He first called Vinícius "the best in the world" in February this year, after he scored once, and created two more, in a 4-0 league win over Girona.

@ViniJr IMPARABLE #UCL pic.twitter.com/kzndco3F9S

Real Madrid C.F. (@realmadrid) October 23, 2024

Vinícius' numbers for his club are impressive. This season, he already has 12 goals in 17 Madrid games in all competitions. Last year, he scored 24 times, including in the Champions League final. But that wasn't enough to convince the Ballon d'Or jury that he's the world's best.

Details of the voting for the 2024 men's prize -- released last weekend -- show Vinícius received 1,129 points. Manchester City's Rodri earned 1,170. Out of a 100-strong panel of international journalists, 35 thought Vinícius was number one. But 49 thought the same about Rodri. Madrid's displeasure at the verdict saw them boycott the ceremony.

What more can Vinícius do to win over the sceptics? A frequent criticism has been his widely perceived underperformance with his national team, Brazil. For his country, he has rarely been the decisive figure we're used to seeing in Madrid. More often, his displays have been divisive.

In five years playing for his country, Vinícius has only scored five goals. Two of them came in one game, at last summer's Copa América. And while Vinícius underwhelmed at that tournament, Ballon d'Or rival Rodri was leading Spain to glory at Euro 2024.

Vinícius is now 24 years old and approaching his peak. So why has he not yet been able to translate his Real Madrid form, and status, into international success with Brazil? With the 2026 World Cup on the horizon, is there any sign of that changing anytime soon? -- Alex Kirkland

From raw youngster to breakthrough player and now a club star

Vinícius arrived in Madrid as a raw youngster in July 2018, joining from Brazil's Flamengo when he turned 18. It was a bold, 45 million deal for an unproven teenager. In the six years since, he's been transformed as a player and as a person. He's now a global superstar, a Ballon d'Or contender, an anti-racism campaigner and a UNESCO ambassador.

On the pitch, his early years at Madrid were inconsistent. His natural talent was evident -- notably, his explosive pace and dribbling -- but so were his weaknesses, particularly his wayward finishing. Critics mocked his ability in front of goal. In his first three seasons at Real Madrid, his goal tallies in LaLiga were two, three and three.

"For me, it's simple with Vinícius: it's time, and playing football," former Madrid coach Santi Solari -- who first gave Vinícius a regular spot in the team in 2018-19, and is now the club's director of football -- said in Nov. 2018. "He has so much time ahead of him, he's barely 18. Experience will make him a better player. And of course, we all see that talent he has, that's obvious."

A defining characteristic has been Vinícius' relentless work ethic, and his desire to improve. He won over Solari, and eventually his successor Zinedine Zidane. His first truly eye-catching performance at the highest level came in the 2020-21 Champions League, scoring twice against Liverpool in a 3-1 win. His first goal, using his pace to latch onto a quarterback-style pass from Toni Kroos and finish confidently, was a prelude for what was to follow.

THAT sensational Toni Kroos assist for Vinícius Júnior, again & again @ToniKroos @vinijr @realmadriden | #UCL pic.twitter.com/5YRAN4myA9

UEFA Champions League (@ChampionsLeague) April 12, 2021

Vinícius' breakthrough season for Madrid came in 2021-22, coinciding with Ancelotti's arrival as coach.

Ancelotti's advice in August 2021 was straightforward. "He has a lot of quality in one-on-ones," Ancelotti said, when asked about Vinícius' finishing. "I've told him he has to score with one or two touches. It's harder to score after taking three or four. You have to be there, inside the box."

The message was clear: play closer to goal. Take fewer touches. Finish instinctively.

His goalscoring took a qualitative and quantitative leap that he's yet to manage for Brazil. A comparison between Vinícius' LaLiga statistics in 2020-21 and 2021-22 highlights just how quickly he improved. In both seasons, he featured in 35 league games -- 22 and 30, respectively, as a starter.

In 2021-22, he took 80 shots, *twice* as many as his 40 in the previous campaign. His percentage of shots on target rocketed from 32.5% to 53.8%. His expected goals almost doubled, from 6.47 to 12.35, and he went from underperforming that xG (with three goals in 2020-21) to overperforming (with 17 goals in 2021-22).

The result: Madrid won a LaLiga and Champions League double in 2022. In the Champions League final in Paris, Vinícius scored in a 1-0 win over LiverpooL. In 2022-23, there were more contenders for career-best performance -- many would point to a 5-2 win at Anfield in February 2023, when Vinícius scored twice and created another -- but the next leap forward in his development came in 2023-24, after Karim Benzema had left the club.

Instead of playing wide left in a front three, Vinícius would form an unconventional front two made up of two wide forwards and no central striker, alongside fellow Brazilian Rodrygo, with Bellingham behind them. A look at the heat maps for Vinícius' last LaLiga season before Ancelotti's arrival, 2020-21, and his most recent full season, 2023-24, shows a shift in his positioning, into the penalty area, and closer to goal.

In 2024, Vinícius led Madrid to a LaLiga and Champions League double once again, and scored in the Champions League final. The strike which best illustrated his progression came earlier, though, in Madrid's semifinal first leg against Bayern Munich on April 30. Vinícius dropped deep, pulling centre-back Kim Min-Jae out of position, before spinning and bursting into the space created behind the defender, shooting first-time past goalkeeper Manuel Neuer. This wasn't the finish of a converted winger; Vinícius looked a true centre-forward.

The long-awaited arrival of Kylian Mbappé this past summer has slowed that trend somewhat, with Vinícius often returning to occupy his position on the left-wing, although the pair have also lined up as a front two. After a slow start to 2024-25, Vinícius is now flying. If losing out to Rodri for the Ballon d'Or was a setback, Vinícius has responded in the best way possible, scoring in both games since, against AC Milan and Osasuna.

He celebrated his first goal against Osasuna by running to the touchline and embracing Ancelotti. A source close to the player told ESPN that Vinícius had been unhappy with the pressure his coach has come under in recent weeks -- after losses to Barcelona and Milan -- and wanted to offer a public show of support for the man he views as a mentor, and the manager who has known how to get the best out of him.

Mbappé's presence means Vinícius must vie for attention in attack, but the stats this season show that Vinícius has been the better player. Vinícius has scored more league goals (eight to Mbappé's six) and created more chances (24 to Mbappé's 13). Vinícius' shot conversion rate is 21.6%, to Mbappé's 11.5%. Out of possession, the difference is even greater. Vinícius has made 11 tackles to Mbappé's one, with a total of 42 defensive interventions (which include recoveries, tackles, interceptions and clearances) to Mbappé's 17.

Despite the arrival of Mbappé -- and the presence of another superstar like Bellingham -- Vinícius is still the main man for Real Madrid, arguably the world's biggest club, and has been for multiple seasons now. It makes his failure to convince for Brazil all the more puzzling. -- Kirkland

Why is Vini struggling for Brazil?

When Brazil coach Dorival Junior called up his squad for the November games against Venezuela and Uruguay, he was inevitably drawn into the great Ballon D'Or debate. He referred to Vinícius coming in second as "an unfair situation.

"If there was one decisive, lethal player whose talent was on display to the whole world," he continued, "it was him. Maybe the biggest prize that Vinícius won was the recognition and respect of his people. The vast majority of the Brazilian people were aware that an injustice had taken place."

But the last time that Vinícius played for Brazil, the vast majority of his compatriots did not seem too pleased with him. The team fell to a dismal defeat away to Paraguay, and he made little impression. Paraguay coach Gustavo Alfaro trusted in his right-back Juan Caceres and midfielder Mathías Villasanti to shut down Vini. Despite the Brazilians feeding Vini, he had no space to work.

A Rodrygo dribble opened up the defence, but left Vinícius with an angle too narrow for a dangerous shot. Just once he was able to cut in and unleash a shot, turned round the post by the goalkeeper. It was a frustrating evening, all pumped up effort and little end product.

TV pundits were calling for Vinícius to be substituted, expressing a widespread impatience -- which a total of just five goals in 35 internationals goes some way to explain.

Vinícius first played for his country more than five years ago, but it is since the 2021 Copa América that he has been a permanent part of the squad. Then-coach Tite says that it took him time to find his feet in the national team.

At first, he was a substitute. Given his first start, away to Chile in a Sept. 2021 World Cup qualifier, he was taken off at half time, and subsequently returned to the bench. He forced his way back in as a consequence of excellent club form, but he was always something of a bolt-on.

Tite's team played its best football with one out and out winger, Raphinha on the right, and Lucas Paquetá operating as a false left winger, cutting in to combine with Neymar. Right up until the first match of the 2022 Qatar World Cup, Brazil's coaching staff was wrestling with a dilemma. The choice was either Fred, with Paquetá as a winger, or Vinícius, with Paquetá in midfield. In the end, they could not leave Vinícius out, and they were not disappointed. In Qatar, he produced his best international displays to that date.

He set up both goals in the opening 2-0 win over Serbia, and the only goal in the win over Switzerland. He put them on the path to a comfortable second victory over South Korea with the first goal, a cute shot back across the goal, and set up Paquetá for the strike that put Brazil four ahead before half time.

Vinícius had his moments in the fatal quarterfinal against Croatia, but was taken off soon after the hour mark, with the coaching staff worried that he was not pressing well enough, and the opponents were finding it too easy to get the ball to Luka Modric. Even so, Vinícius came out of the tournament as one of Brazil's plus points. He had shown beyond all doubt that he belonged at the level.

Now, Vinícius is no longer a bolt-on for Brazil, and adds a bit of extra spice. Especially since the long term injury to Neymar, he is expected to be the team's most potent attacking weapon. The plan is now built around him - but he has been an ineffective figure in humiliating games such as a draw at home to Venezuela, plus defeats to Uruguay and Paraguay, and a disappointing Copa América.

So where is the problem?

Given the outcome of the Ballon D'Or vote, it contains a delicious irony. There is a type of player badly lacking in the Brazil lineup -- one with the characteristics of a Rodri.

Vinícius is primarily a winger. As a general rule, the game cannot be won down the flanks without first winning the midfield battle. Without intelligent passing to take opponents out of the game, a player like Vinícius has a tough task. He has a restricted corridor in which to operate - -and the opposition are waiting for him, ganging up to deny him space. This has even been a problem with Real Madrid this season after the retirement of Toni Kroos, his main supply line.

Following Real Madrid's first game in this season's Champions League, against Lille of France, Predrag Mijatovic, the club's former star, declared his concern. "Real Madrid's midfield at the moment, " he told the Spanish media, "has a lot of physical strength but not enough creativity. I missed Modric tonight and, unfortunately, Toni Kroos is no longer available.

"Everyone is talking about Vini losing form, but his style of play depends on how the ball reaches him. Against Lille the midfield was not creative enough to give him useful passes, the kind of service he needs to pull off his characteristic moves," Mijatovic added.

Real Madrid's midfield problem this season has been a consistent problem in the Brazilian national team.

Newcastle's Bruno Guimarães has perhaps been the biggest disappointment over the past year in efforts to solve this positional crisis. Since Casemiro was dropped, Guimarães has supposedly been the king of the midfield, but has yet to rise to the challenge. Paquetá in a deeper role offers a possible solution -- he combined superbly with Vinícius for a goal against Paraguay in the Copa América -- but his form has been wayward.

Other countries would love to have Brazil's goalkeepers, centre-backs and wingers, but for years now there has been a dearth of all-round midfielders. The separation, so prominent in the 90s, of the Brazilian midfield into those who only defend and those who only attack continues to cast a shadow. There is no one to control the midfield, to push and pull the opposition this way and that, to open up the space -- and then slip the pass to Vinícius. -- Tim Vickery

Is there a solution to the Brazil problem?

Dorival Junior is putting his faith in time and temperance. As he gets used to his new job and spends more time on the training field, he hopes that things will flow better.

In the short term, Vinícius can count on increased public support. Injury kept him out of last month's games -- wins against Chile and Peru, the weakest teams in the competition which boosted morale and eased any residual fears of failing to qualify for 2026.

With ten of the 18 rounds played, Brazil now lie in fourth position -- up from sixth two months ago. With six sides making it through automatically and a seventh going into a play-off, there would not seem to be the slightest chance of them missing out.

So if the fans were ready to get on Vinícius' back in September, come November they will be in the mood to get behind him in the wake of the Ballon D'Or controversy.

There has been a significant development during his short absence, too -- the appearance of a centre-forward. Surprisingly, this has been a problem position for a while. Brazil recently tried to get round it with a move from the Ancelotti playbook. In the season after Benzema and before Mbappé, Real had Vinícius attack the vacant space in the centre-forward slot. The player said that it was the season in which he had learned most, and it was only natural for Brazil to attempt to get him to do the same thing with the national team.

But it is not easy to play without a focal point up front. Doing without a number nine is far easier for a club, with extended time to train, than it is for a national team. Brazil were unable to get it to work. A struggling midfield -- and Brazil's was most certainly that --- benefits immensely from the option of playing up to a centre-forward who can hold on to the ball. Brazil were unable to play their way down the pitch, and when they went long, as they often did with no one to receive, they usually ended up surrendering possession.

But then came the extraordinary rise of Igor Jesus, in yet another remarkable coup for Botafogo's scouting department. A few months ago, Jesus was a relative unknown playing in the United Arab Emirates. Botafogo signed him in July, and by October he was the national team's first choice centre-forward. Strong and mobile, he adds all kinds of attacking possibilities. Vinícius is now set to team up with him for the first time, planting the seeds of what could be an important partnership for the national team.

And in an uncharacteristic act of bravado, coach Dorival Junior recently promised that his side will be playing in the 2026 World Cup final. Turning words into deeds will prove much easier if the best Vinícius Junior in the white of Real Madrid can also show his face and his feet in the famous yellow of Brazil. -- Vickery

Four-star Florida State quarterback pledge Tramell Jones pulled his commitment from the Seminoles on Thursday morning, marking the sixth departure from Mike Norvell's 2025 class amid the program's 1-9 start this fall.

Jones, a 6-foot, 190-pound passer from Jacksonville, Florida, is ESPN's ninth-ranked dual-threat quarterback prospect in the 2025 cycle. The decommitment by Jones, the longest-tenured member of Florida State's 2025 class, arrives just days after Norvell fired three members of his coaching staff Sunday following the program's 52-3 defeat at Notre Dame, headlined by the exit of offensive coordinator and offensive line coach Alex Atkins.

Jones' move represents the latest blow to a Seminoles class that has taken a series of hits this fall as Florida State has followed its 13-1 showing in 2023 with a disastrous 2024 campaign. A previous linchpin in the program's 2025 class, Jones follows ESPN 300 prospects Myron Charles, Javion Hilson, Malik Clark, Daylan McCutcheon and CJ Wiley among the top recruits who have left Norvell's incoming class since the Seminoles' Aug. 24 season opener. Jones' exit leaves Florida State with 12 prospects left committed in 2025, including five ESPN 300 pledges led by five-star offensive tackle Solomon Thomas, ESPN's No. 13 overall prospect in the 2025 cycle.

Florida State sat at No. 37 in ESPN's class rankings in 2025 before Jones' decommitment Thursday, with further movement expected out of the Seminoles' class in the coming weeks.

With his recruitment reopened, Jones stands as one of the top uncommitted quarterbacks in the final weeks of the 2025 cycle. Florida has remained in contact this fall with Jones, a four-year starter at Mandarin High School, and sources within the Gators' program are optimistic that Florida will ultimately land Jones in the final weeks of the cycle following the school's decision to keep Billy Napier as head coach beyond 2024.

Florida is set to host a series of high-profile recruits when the Gators host LSU at 3:30 ET Saturday afternoon on ABC. Florida State is off in Week 12 before a Nov. 23 visit from Charleston Southern.

Less than 3%. ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) thinks there's a 2.7% chance the 9-0 Chiefs win their remaining eight games and become the first team in NFL history to win 17 games in a regular season. If they can win this weekend's rivalry game against the Bills, they will be favored in each of their seven remaining contests. Their chances of going 17-0 would more than double.

After last Sunday's game, some people might feel like the Chiefs' chances of pulling this off are closer to 100%. Late in a close game against the Broncos, Kansas City seemed to have finally met its match. Patrick Mahomes missed an open Travis Kelce in the end zone for a touchdown, with the Chiefs instead kicking a field goal to go up two points. The Broncos then converted three third downs to get in range of a chip-shot field goal, only for Leo Chenal to come up with a perfect-season-saving block of Wil Lutz's kick. Kansas City won 16-14. Its victories have felt preordained.

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And yet, people taking a closer look might feel like the Chiefs' chances are much closer to 0%. They have won exactly one game by more than 10 points. They've gotten help from oversized feet (Isaiah Likely's non-catch at the end of Week 1 against the Ravens), well-timed calls (a fourth-and-16 pass interference late in Week 2 against the Bengals), scaredy-cat coaches (Todd Bowles not going for two as a significant underdog with 27 seconds left to go in regulation in Week 8 against the Bucs) and now a game-saving blocked field goal on the final snap of regulation.

Who's right? Can the Chiefs really do this? While most everyone acknowledges this is a good football team, are they pretenders in relation to the other teams that started their seasons 9-0? Are they worse than other Kansas City teams from the past? Can they keep up this cycle? And what does it mean for their chances of becoming the first team in NFL history to three-peat? Let's look into the undefeated Chiefs and try to figure out whether they can keep it up the rest of the way:

Jump to a section:
How the Chiefs have gotten here
Is their start actually sustainable?
Are they the worst 9-0 team ... ever?
What has sunk previous unbeaten teams?
Will the Chiefs improve and go 17-0?

When good predictions aren't actually good

Before the season, I predicted that the Chiefs were one of the most likely teams to improve on their regular-season record from 2023, when they went 11-6. And then, on my preseason podcast with colleagues Domonique Foxworth and Mina Kimes, I went a step further and suggested they would be the second team in NFL history to win 16 games in the regular season, joining the 2007 Patriots, who went 16-0.

On the surface, I should be thrilled about this prediction. The Chiefs are the last undefeated team and are more than halfway to that 16-win prediction. If the rest of the season played out as chalk, ESPN's FPI projects them to win 16 games, losing Sunday's game against Buffalo. Given that I also predicted the Jaguars would win the AFC South, I should feel good about this one, right?

I don't, because the reasons why I expected the Chiefs to win 16 games have not come true. The arguments I had in favor of their spectacular season haven't panned out. Let's review what I thought would happen and what has occurred instead:

An improved turnover differential. The Chiefs had a minus-11 turnover differential last season, a shockingly bad number for a team with Mahomes at quarterback and an opportunistic defense. They lost the turnover battle about five times per season between 2018 and 2022, only to do so nine times during the regular season in 2023. They went 4-5 in those games and 7-1 otherwise.

Turnover differential typically regresses toward the mean, which is one of the reasons I had the Commanders as a team likely to improve this season. The Chiefs, though, have continued to turn the ball over. Week 10 was the first time all season they haven't turned the ball over in a game. They have a minus-four turnover differential overall, which is tied with the Jets and Patriots for 22nd in the league.

The positive, if there is one, is that they've only lost the turnover battle three times in nine games. Unsurprisingly, those games have been tight: They include a one-point win over the Bengals, a seven-point victory over the Chargers where they didn't take the lead until there were six minutes to go, and a six-point overtime win over the Buccaneers. Andy Reid's team has somehow only won the turnover battle once this season, and it was arguably its most impressive win, a 10-point victory in the Super Bowl LVIII rematch over the 49ers.

Their fumble recovery rate. The 2023 Chiefs recovered 41.9% of their fumbles last season, a rate that was unluckily low. History tells us fumble recovery rates almost always regress toward 50% from year to year. As an example, if we just take the 90 teams from 1991 through 2022 that recovered between 40% and 43% of their fumbles and see what they did the following season, their recovery rate the following season was 49.9699%. That's about as close to 50% as it gets.

The 2024 Chiefs, somehow, have been even worse at falling on footballs. They've recovered five of the 16 fumbles that have hit the ground in their games, good for a 31.3% recovery rate. Only the Saints (30%) and Raiders (an unfathomably brutal 13.3%) have recovered a lower percentage of fumbles this season. Kansas City was over 50% in 2022 and 2021.

The deep passing attack. Once the league's most devastating deep passer, the departure of Tyreek Hill and the shift toward two-high coverages -- which hit the Chiefs before spreading across the rest of the league -- took away so much of the downfield passing attack that made Mahomes an instant sensation. In 2023, though, his 52.3 QBR on deep throws ranked only 27th in the league, as he completed 28.3% of his deep-pass attempts while throwing one touchdown passes against five picks. After hitting 2.3 deep passes per game in 2018, Mahomes was down to averaging one per game in 2023.

This season, Mahomes only has six deep completions in nine games. Every other full-time starter in the league has more. His 77.6 QBR on those throws bumps him up to 21st, but he still has three picks on 19 throws.

Part of the reason why I was optimistic about the downfield-passing game improving was improvements in personnel. The Chiefs were expecting a full season out of second-year wideout Rashee Rice, used a first-round pick on Xavier Worthy and had signed Marquise Brown away from the Cardinals. Brown then suffered what appears to be a season-ending shoulder injury during the preseason, while Rice went down with a knee injury early in Week 4. Worthy hasn't been able to consistently convert his speed into downfield opportunities.

General manager Brett Veach subsequently traded for DeAndre Hopkins, who had a spectacular deep contested catch against the Titans. That was the first and only deep completion Mahomes has had since Week 4, however. While the drop rate for Kansas City's wide receivers has declined from a staggering 7.8% to 3.6% this season (about league average), they don't have the sort of wide receiver talent I was hoping to see propel Mahomes back to his prior glories as a deep passer.

An elite defense. While the Chiefs had traded star cornerback L'Jarius Sneed to the Titans to ease their cap concerns, they were still returning most of the starters one of the league's youngest defenses. They finished seventh in QBR allowed and fifth in expected points added (EPA) allowed per play a year ago, and my hope was that breakout seasons from defensive linemen George Karlaftis and Felix Anudike-Uzomah might propel the unit even further forward.

Karlaftis has been excellent and the Chiefs still have a very good defense, but they've taken a small step backward. Coordinator Steve Spagnuolo's unit ranks 13th in QBR allowed and 11th in EPA per play. Kansas City ranks fifth in points allowed, but that's a product of facing just 87 drives this season, six fewer than any other team. It is 11th in points allowed per possession. Again, while still among the league's better defenses, it hasn't been quite as dominant.

So, if most of the arguments for how the Chiefs were going to improve haven't played out as expected, how have they done this?

How the Chiefs have started 9-0

They've won a remarkably high percentage of their close games. They are 7-0 in games decided by seven points or fewer, and as I mentioned earlier, most of those games have come down to a drive or even one play going Kansas City's way. The only other team in league history to start the season with seven one-score wins and no losses in its first nine games was the 2006 Colts. That Indianapolis team promptly lost 21-14 to the Cowboys in its 10th game of the season, but things ended up just fine for Peyton Manning & Co., as they finished the year by beating the Bears in Super Bowl XLI.

The Chiefs' offense has been spectacular at exactly the right time. On first and second down, they are generating minus-0.02 EPA per play, which ranks 18th in the league. They're roughly about as good as the Chargers and Steelers on early downs -- not exactly who we think of when we consider great offenses.

On third and fourth down? You can probably guess what happens. The Chiefs are averaging 0.41 EPA per play, which is the league's best mark. The Commanders are the only team close to what Kansas City is doing on those money downs. Through 10 weeks, this is the fourth-best performance we've seen from any team on third and fourth downs in a single season over the past decade.

The Chiefs are converting on a league-high 54.5% of their third- and fourth-down opportunities. The second-placed Bucs are the only other team over 50%. While they haven't been great on first and second down, they're rarely producing negative plays such as sacks, which makes their life easier; their average third down comes with just 6.3 yards to go. Only the Cardinals have faced shorter third downs. The offense has gone 8-for-8 on fourth downs, as the only failure on a fourth-down try came on a fake punt.

On special teams, the Chiefs have had a significant advantage in the kicking game. Harrison Butker has been excellent, going 18-of-20 on field goals and 22-of-23 on extra points. His only misses on field goal attempts have been from 51 and 65 yards out.

When opposing kickers have tried to make kicks against Kansas City, it hasn't gone as well. Those kickers have hit just 76.5% of their field goal tries, the fifth-worst rate in the league, and 82.4% of their extra points, the lowest rate for any team. In all, kickers have hit on 79.4% of their attempts against the Chiefs this season. Only the Chargers have enjoyed better luck on opposing kicking attempts. The Chenal block was obviously a product of skill, but it was the only block the Chiefs have in 2024.

Is this Kansas City start sustainable?

The third- and fourth-down numbers are an obvious red flag. Teams don't typically have an ability to raise their game on those downs after struggling on first and second down. There are teams better in certain situations given their personnel, but there's no reason why an offense would only start trying to succeed on third down when it could instead move the chains on first or second down.

The Chiefs might break our rules. Through the Week 10 mark of each season over the past decade, the best third-and fourth-down offense was the 2022 Chiefs. The 2024 Chiefs rank fourth. The 2020 Chiefs were ninth. The 2018 Chiefs were 10th. And the 2021 Chiefs were 13th. That 2021 team was similar to this season's Chiefs, as they had an average offense on early downs and were a juggernaut on third and fourth downs:

That 2021 team got better on early downs. After Week 10, it was the league's second-best offense on first and second downs, and it matched that mark on third and fourth downs. Teams typically see their performance on third and fourth down regress toward what they've done on first and second down, since there's a far bigger sample in the latter category, but it wouldn't be out of the ordinary for the Chiefs to improve on early downs over the rest of the season.

I would argue that a Mahomes-led offense ranking below league average in anything is an outlier. The pending return of Isiah Pacheco should help a rushing attack that is handing an average of more than 22 carries per game over the past five weeks to Kareem Hunt, who hasn't topped 4.0 yards per rush in any of those contests. Hunt is averaging more touches per game (24.6) than any player in football since he entered the starting lineup in Week 5, a stunning statistic for a guy who was out of football to begin the season and really hasn't been very good in that role since taking over.

The Chiefs also can't rely on opponents to miss kicks all season. Even beyond the block at the end of the game, those misses have mattered. Justin Tucker missed a 53-yarder just before halftime in Week 1 that might have produced an entirely different endgame sequence for the Ravens in the fourth quarter. Lutz had a 60-yarder come up short to end the first half on Sunday. Evan McPherson missed an extra point in a game the Bengals eventually lost by a single point.

With that being said, there are ways this team can get luckier from here on out. They'll recover a higher percentage of the fumbles that hit the ground in their games. Mahomes won't throw as many tipped interceptions as he has so far. They've played the eighth-toughest schedule this season, but ESPN's FPI believes they'll face the fifth-easiest slate from here on out. Only the Cardinals, Colts, Falcons and Bucs have easier opponents ahead of them.

The Chiefs' underlying level of play could also improve. Swapping out replacement-level efficiency from Hunt for an above-average back in Pacheco would be a major upgrade. Hopkins' role in the offense should grow as he gets more familiar with the playbook. The early-down offense should get better. They are converting pressures to sacks at the sixth-lowest rate after ranking eighth over the previous two seasons. It's not possible to assume all the good things that are happening will keep happening and all the bad things will get fixed, but some of the places Kansas City has struggled are areas in which it's likely to improve as the season progresses.

Are the Chiefs the worst 9-0 team ever?

There's a case to be made. Since the 1970 NFL-AFL merger, the average 9-0 team has had a point differential of plus-122, meaning it has won its typical game by 13.6 points. The Chiefs don't have a single win by that mark, and their plus-58 point differential is the worst for any undefeated team through nine games. They're two points behind the aforementioned 2006 Colts, who immediately lost their 10th game of the season.

At the same time, schedule strength is a real thing, and it plays a huge role in helping teams produce undefeated stretches. The best example is the one undefeated team in league lore. The 1972 Dolphins faced one of the easiest regular-season slates in league history. After playing a Chiefs team in Week 1 that would eventually finish 8-6, Miami didn't face another team that would finish with a winning record until Week 13, its second-to-last game of the season. Nine of its 14 games came against teams that won five games or fewer.

Pro Football Reference uses its Simple Rating System to calculate a strength of schedule for each team. The average opponent for the 1972 Dolphins was 4.3 points below league average by that system. Since then, just six teams over the ensuing 53 seasons have faced an easier schedule. Those teams, prorated to a 17-game schedule, won an average of 13 games.

One of those six teams was the 1975 Vikings, who also started 9-0. Just below the Dolphins were the 2015 Panthers, who started 9-0 and finished 15-1. The average full-season strength of schedule for these teams that started 9-0 is minus-1.4, which would constitute the eighth-easiest schedule for any team in 2024.

While there are only nine games worth of data on these Chiefs, they're facing a much tougher schedule than the typical 9-0 team played during their full regular season. With a plus-1.1 strength of schedule, the only 9-0 team to face a tougher slate across their full season was those 2006 Colts. That strength of schedule will fall as the Chiefs face easier opponents down the stretch, but they should still finish with one of the tougher schedules we've seen from teams that were in this position after nine games.

Have they been lucky? While I've pointed out the fumble luck hasn't gone their way, they've had some fortunate timing and benefited from things like Isaiah Likely's foot and bad opposition kicking, neither of which they can control. It certainly feels like they have been less dominant than the 2007 Patriots, and that's borne out by their point differential.

And yet, the reality is the vast majority of teams that get off to these starts catch breaks on the way. Take another team quarterbacked by a Hall of Famer that was attempting to claim a three-peat, the 1990 49ers. Joe Montana's team started 9-0 and finished 14-2, although they fell short of the Super Bowl when they lost to the Giants in the NFC Championship Game.

In Week 1, those 49ers won on a last-second field goal to beat the Saints after New Orleans threw deep with a chance to close out the game on third down with 1:35 to go. In Week 3, Deion Sanders dropped a pick-six that would have given the Falcons a fourth-quarter lead. The 49ers needed a 10-point comeback to beat the Oilers in Week 4. In Week 8, Montana went 4-of-16 for 31 yards in the second half as the 49ers needed another field goal with five seconds left to beat a 2-6 Browns team. After a 24-20 victory over the Packers took the 49ers to 8-0, one headline said: "It's Not Pretty, But It's Still the 49ers."

Even the 2007 Patriots had their moments. They trailed 20-10 with eight minutes to go in the fourth quarter against the Colts before leading back-to-back touchdown drives to get to 9-0. When they needed another fourth-quarter comeback to beat A.J. Feeley and the Eagles as 24.5-point underdogs, The New York Times headline said: "Patriots Are Unbeaten but Don't Look Unbeatable." The next week, New England needed multiple controversial calls and a winning touchdown with 44 seconds left to beat a 4-7 Ravens team. The Patriots finished December with a game against the Jets that was within one score until the final few minutes, then went down 28-16 in Week 17 against a Giants team with nothing to play for before a furious comeback got them to 16-0.

I'd still say the Chiefs have been less dominant than the 2007 Patriots, of course, because we've rarely seen them pull away from opponents the way dominant teams usually do. But it's also true that we have rose-colored memories of the past. Unless you're a Ravens fan, you probably think about that Patriots team dropping 40- and 50-point games on overmatched opposition during the regular season, not their close calls. If you were lucky enough to see the 1972 Dolphins play, you probably weren't thinking too much about their strength of schedule. If the Chiefs make a serious run at 17-0, nobody's going to look back in two decades and say they were barely scraping by each week, even if it feels like that's true now.

What usually sinks 9-0 teams?

Usually, it's running into another great team. When evaluating the 21 previous 9-0 teams since the merger, I checked each of their first losses to see how and when it happened. Two teams didn't lose any regular-season games, so the 1972 Dolphins and 2007 Patriots are out of the discussion.

Of the remaining 19, 12 lost to a team I would characterize as a legitimate playoff contender. The 2015 Patriots started 9-0 and lost in overtime to a Broncos team that would eventually win the Super Bowl. The 2009 Saints, who would eventually win the title themselves, won their first 13 games before losing to the Cowboys, who won the NFC East with an 11-5 record and even beat the Eagles in the wild-card round.

Six slipped on a banana peel. Take the 2011 Packers, who were coming off a Super Bowl win and cruising at 13-0. They went into Kansas City as 11.5-point favorites to face a 5-8 team that had already fired coach Todd Haley and promoted Romeo Crennel to the interim job. The Chiefs were starting Kyle Orton, who had been cut by the Broncos at midseason and had thrown just one pass in a Kansas City uniform. The Chiefs hit four field goals and got a touchdown from the legendary Jackie Battle, who broke off a 15-yard run to end the game and upset the Pack.

Another team on this list is the 2009 Colts, who infamously decided to take Peyton Manning out of the game in the third quarter of a Week 16 game against the Jets with a 15-10 lead to keep their veteran fresh for the postseason. The 14-0 Colts quickly faded with Curtis Painter at quarterback, while a New York team whose coach had said the prior week that they were "out of the playoffs," only to be informed they still had a shot at making it by winning out, promptly roared back to beat the Colts, blew out the Bengals to clinch a playoff berth and then won two playoff games before Manning got his revenge in the AFC Championship Game.

These teams usually lost because they had a game in which they suffered unrecoverable errors. They usually ran ugly turnover margins, like when those 1990 49ers turned the ball over six times in a loss to a Rams team that would finish 5-11. The 1975 Vikings missed an extra point and two field goals, including a 45-yarder at the end of regulation, in a 31-30 loss to Washington. Opponents went on second-half outbursts that our undefeateds couldn't answer.

That kind of game could happen to the Chiefs, who have had turnover issues this season. They still have tough matchups against the Bills, Chargers, Texans and Steelers. They might be favored in each of their matchups after this weekend's trip to Buffalo, but there's a huge difference between being favored to win each of those games and being favored to win all of those games.

They could just as easily be upset by an also-ran. Their last loss -- on Christmas last year -- was to a Raiders team with Aidan O'Connell at quarterback when Vegas scored defensive touchdowns on back-to-back snaps. Those same Raiders have gone 5-9 since. Kansas City nearly lost as 7.5-point favorites at home on Sunday against the Broncos, who were coming off a 31-point loss to the Ravens in Week 9.

Will the Chiefs do it?

I don't think so. Even by Chiefs standards, they've been skating through wins by razor-thin margins and relying on Mahomes to bail them out when they need big plays. Acknowledging that they always seem to find a way, that's a dangerous thing to count on happening for an entire season. History tells us that no team, not even the Chiefs, can count on blocked field goals and catches being a half-inch out of bounds to save victories for a full season. Eventually, the team has to dominate.

If the Chiefs keep playing the way they've been playing, they have no shot at 17-0. I do think they could play better over the rest of the season, though, and that would make an undefeated season at least a little more plausible. If they recover more fumbles, the run game gets a boost from having Pacheco back in the lineup, Mahomes stops throwing interceptions and the defense takes a tiny step forward closer to where it was in 2023, that's a much better version of this team.

The most likely scenario is Kansas City comes up a few wins short. Using the FPI's win probabilities, I simulated the rest of the Chiefs' season 10,000 times and found they were most likely to win 14 games (28.2% of simulations) or 15 games (26.3% of simulations). They had a 13% chance of going 16-1, so even my spicy take from before the season would be considered relatively unlikely.

Those numbers are missing something, as there's the possibility the Chiefs will let off the gas. Reid has been happy to sit his veterans in meaningless games in previous seasons. A win over the Bills would put them further ahead of the competition for the top seed in the AFC, and if the Steelers slip, they would be in an even more dominant position. If they were to get to 15-0 and clinch home-field advantage in the AFC, would Reid really play Mahomes and the rest of his stars in two meaningless games to try and put together a perfect season, knowing he would be risking a shot at the first three-peat in league history? I'm sure the Chiefs don't want to lose before the postseason, but there's a case to be made that it would make their lives easier as they prepare for the postseason.

Sunday will be Kansas City's biggest test of the season. The Week 1 game against the Ravens was at home. Now, the team has to travel to Buffalo, and while it vanquished the Bills in Western New York during the 2023 playoffs, Josh Allen & Co. have beaten the Chiefs in each of the past three regular-season matchups they've played. It seems presumptuous to talk about an undefeated season after a team needed a blocked field goal to overcome the Broncos. Beat the Bills on Sunday, though, and 17-0 Watch will officially be on.

The 2024-25 NBA season is just a few weeks old, and teams are already proving that preseason projections are just that.

The Philadelphia 76ers and Milwaukee Bucks have six wins as both currently sit outside the Eastern Conference play-in. Meanwhile, the Brooklyn Nets and Detroit Pistons find themselves in the middle of the wide-open standings and the Cleveland Cavaliers are off to the hottest start in the NBA since the 2015-26 Golden State Warriors.

The wins the East is lacking can be found out West as 10 Western Conference teams are at .500 or better. The Phoenix Suns, Oklahoma City Thunder and Warriors are all off to notable starts, but injuries threaten to stall some early-season momentum. Suns star Kevin Durant picked up a calf strain that will sideline him for multiple weeks, while Thunder big man Chet Holmgren suffered a pelvic fracture that will keep him out eight to 10 weeks at minimum.

With injuries mounting and preseason storylines thrown out, let's check in on which teams have underperformed and overperformed so far. Our experts break down the biggest questions regarding slow starts and surprising records, and also examine the reality of teams climbing out of early holes.

Most surprising team exceeding expectations?

Tim MacMahon: We knew the Cavaliers were pretty good. But who could have predicted Cleveland claiming the longest undefeated streak to start a season since the 73-win Warriors? C'mon. The Cavs are coming off an Eastern Conference semifinals appearance, but new coach Kenny Atkinson inherited a roster with real questions about whether its best players actually complemented one another. The "core four" has been good together; Cleveland had a plus-7.9 net rating entering Monday night with Donovan Mitchell, Darius Garland, Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen on the floor together. They're dominating as duos, as Atkinson has linked Mitchell with Mobley and Garland with Allen in his rotation. The Mitchell-Mobley tandem has a plus-13.9 net rating, and Garland-Allen isn't too far behind (plus-8.4). It's early in the season, but last week's blowout win over the Warriors served notice that the Cavs should be taken seriously as contenders.

Tim Bontemps: I thought the Golden State Warriors were going to be good this season, but I did not expect them to be tied for the best record in the West 11 games in while boasting a top-three defense in the league. After beating the Celtics on Nov. 6, Stephen Curry said multiple times how much he's enjoying this group because of the return of the organization's "strength in numbers" philosophy -- a callback to Steve Kerr's first season in 2014-15, which ended in a title. A decade later, as long as Curry is on the court and the players around him are defending like this, the Warriors are a real threat.

Kevin Pelton: Their early-season performance is not likely to last or matter as much as the other teams on the list, but let's give some love to the Brooklyn Nets. Left for the Cooper Flagg sweepstakes after trading Mikal Bridges to the New York Knicks -- and, notably, reacquiring the rights to their 2025 and 2026 first-round picks -- the Nets have been as high as fourth in the East during a 4-6 start. Even Brooklyn's losses have been impressive, including overtime games against the past two champions (Denver Nuggets and Boston Celtics) and a five-point loss in Cleveland. For the most part, the Nets have been driven by veterans, including Dennis Schroder, who is averaging 19.3 points on 46.2% 3-point shooting. That start could put Brooklyn in a better position to deal those contributors to contenders before the trade deadline, keeping the Nets on track for the lottery talent they need long term.

Dave McMenamin: After losing Paul George in free agency, dealing with Kawhi Leonard's latest right knee injury and dropping their first four home games at the brand new Intuit Dome, coach Tyronn Lue and the LA Clippers won four straight games to climb in to the play-in picture. Guard Norman Powell has been leading the way, averaging a career-best 24.9 points on 50.5/49.5/83.3 shooting splits -- nearly double his 13.9 scoring average a season ago. James Harden has struggled with his efficiency -- shooting just 36.2%, including 31.3% from 3 -- but is still nearly averaging a triple-double with 20.7 points, 8.8 assists and 8.2 rebounds per game. And the addition of Derrick Jones Jr. from Dallas has helped the Clips rank 11th in defense, allowing only 108.6 points per 100 possessions.

Jamal Collier: I agree with MacMahon that the Cavs have arrived to stake their claim as contenders at the top of the East, but I'm most surprised by the Pistons starting the season 5-8. It took them until Jan. 15 to get their fourth win last season. They're not world-beaters by any means, but they also appear to finally not be pushovers . And considering the state of the Eastern Conference, Detroit has reason to believe it can make a push for, at least, a spot in the play-in tournament, especially with Cade Cunningham off to such a strong start, leading the team in points (23.8 per game), averaging a career-high 8.5 assists and shooting 45.6%.

Most surprising underperformer?

MacMahon: It's unbelievable the Bucks are this bad. Khris Middleton's absence doesn't excuse a team with championship aspirations having only four wins 12 games into the season. It's especially concerning given Giannis Antetokounmpo (33.3 points, 12.1 rebounds, 5.5 assists per game) is putting up numbers near his career best. And the noise around the Bucks will only get louder if the losses continue stacking up. One of the most common discussions around the league is speculating on how long it will take before Antetokounmpo seeks a trade. Milwaukee's front office has twice hushed that talk over the years, making blockbuster trades that persuaded Antetokounmpo to sign extensions, but the Damian Lillard deal has yet to pay dividends. And it's hard to see how the Bucks can make significant roster upgrades after they've pushed so many chips in to build this flawed roster.

Bontemps: If you had said the Bucks were going to be among the worst teams in the NBA across the opening 12 games of the season, the case would be an easy one: injuries to Antetokounmpo, Lillard or Brook Lopez. Instead, the three of them have combined to miss only three games, and the Bucks are still among the cellar dwellers in the East, which is cause for alarm. The fate of this team will be determined over the next few weeks, during which they'll play a nine-game stretch that features six home games and seven games against teams that didn't make the playoffs last season. If Milwaukee dominates that stretch and gets near .500, then the noise will quiet. If the Bucks cannot pull themselves even slightly out of this hole, then you're looking at a team devoid of trade assets to improve.

Pelton: Clearly it's Milwaukee but, in the non-Bucks division, I'm surprised Philadelphia was so uncompetitive before Joel Embiid's return to the lineup. Yes, the 76ers players who have been healthy are primarily on the team to complement Embiid, Paul George and Tyrese Maxey, and Philly has put two of those three players on the court together only three times all season. But the Sixers weren't at a talent disadvantage against, say, the Toronto Raptors without both RJ Barrett and Immanuel Quickley, whom they lost to 115-107 during the first week of the season. Given Embiid isn't expected to play both ends of back-to-back sets the rest of the regular season, Philadelphia might rue not being able to pull out more early games if it means another path to the playoffs through the play-in.

McMenamin: The team that has been mostly healthy thus far, yet still has looked the furthest from the potential juggernaut it was hyped to be, is the Knicks. Coming off the franchise's first 50-win season in more than a decade and adding former All-Defensive first-team member Mikal Bridges and four-time All-Star Karl-Anthony Towns in the offseason, Knicks fans were wondering if 2024-25 would finally be their year. The East has been underwhelming as a whole, so New York's 5-6 start is still good enough for fourth in the conference. But the Knicks are already seven games behind No. 1 Cleveland and four games back from the defending champion Boston Celtics. Their stacked starting lineup is keeping them afloat -- it's responsible for the NBA's fourth-rated offense -- but their lack of depth and bottom-half defense are already troubling signs for their title hopes.

Collier: We've outlined what a disaster this start has been for Milwaukee so far, so I'll avoid piling on. But the Sixers being just as bad is such a major letdown for a team that "won" the offseason. For all the accolades Embiid has picked up through the years, we've still yet to see him have a dominant playoff run. It finally seemed like all the right pieces were in place for a successful season: the right co-stars, some strong supporting role players and an innovative coach. The Sixers could still end up making a strong playoff run and, as the next question outlines, there's reason for optimism, but the way Philadelphia has come out of the gates has been disappointing.

Which injured team is most likely to make the playoffs?

MacMahon: The 76ers have the luxury of playing in the East, which likely won't require a winning record to make the playoffs. So, for all that has gone wrong medically in Philadelphia to start the season, the Sixers should still land somewhere in the East's top six by the end of the regular season. But a lot will have to break right for Philadelphia to emerge as a real threat to get to Embiid's first East finals. The Sixers have been clear about their plan to proceed with caution regarding the workload on their two injury-prone veteran stars, George and Embiid, both of whom are expected to rest half of back-to-backs even when healthy. How will that work? Do they sit together or stagger their rest? The Sixers have put themselves in a position where they can't afford to punt any games, but chemistry can't just be microwaved between two stars who played their first game together Tuesday. Yes, Philly should still make the playoffs, but it wouldn't be surprising if the Sixers are done by May.

Bontemps: Philadelphia has to be the answer here. It's a big if, but if Embiid, George and Maxey can spend some consistent time on the court together, this team is going to win a lot of games -- if for no other reason than the injuries and ineffectiveness of so many of the teams around them. Plus, as MacMahon pointed out, there is always time in the East, given we are looking at a conference that has two teams over .500 and a staggering 10 below that mark just three weeks into the season. That alone should make the 76ers the most likely pick to recover and get into the mix in the East.

Pelton: Can we count the Memphis Grizzlies as an injured team? After losing a record number of games to injuries a year ago, the Grizzlies are currently without starting perimeter players Desmond Bane, Ja Morant and Marcus Smart and have seen reserves GG Jackson II, Cam Spencer and Vince Williams Jr. miss every game so far this season. Yet Memphis continues to roll along better than .500 thanks to strong performances by Jay Huff and Scotty Pippen Jr. -- both recently promoted from two-way contracts -- and second-round pick Jaylen Wells. The Grizzlies' plus-8.2 point differential ranks third in the West, suggesting Memphis could return to the contender ranks if it can get healthy over the course of the season.

McMenamin: I'm picking Philly here, too. As dismal of a start to the season as it has been -- and believe me, you should see some of the texts I've received from my family and friends back home who are already in full-on meltdown mode about how bad the Sixers stink -- Embiid is a top-three two-way talent when he's on the court. His presence alone will change the Sixers' trajectory.

Collier: It's Philly. Despite the slow start, the way the rest of the East has shaken out is reason enough to avoid real panic. With Embiid back, I could see him providing the same kind of lift he did last season when the team went on a winning streak heading into the play-in tournament. The top two seeds might have a head start on securing their spots, but the other four guaranteed playoff spots should be in flux all season in the East.

Which top-6 team over the past week is most likely to miss the playoffs?

MacMahon: The team that has the sixth spot in the Western Conference, which was the Lakers entering this week by virtue of tiebreakers as one of five teams with 6-4 records. There are going to be a few pretty good teams left out of the West playoffs. Eleven teams in the conference entered the week .500 or better. The Lakers were the lone team in that bunch that did not have a positive point differential.

Bontemps: The Lakers are the best answer to the question for the simple fact that we are already seeing wear and tear on Anthony Davis after his incredible start to the season, and if he misses any time at all, this Lakers team is going to struggle immensely. New coach JJ Redick is also already going through his roster searching for answers, much like Darvin Ham did the past couple of years. The problem is there aren't a lot of clear solutions. If Davis can stay on the court more than 75 games and continue this level of production, he'll be a first-team All-NBA player and the Lakers will have a very good chance of finishing in the top six. But he has already missed a game, is dealing with plantar fasciitis -- which doesn't go away quickly -- and now has an eye issue.

McMenamin: The Miami Heat. I know I'm breaking an unwritten rule betting against Heat culture -- and I haven't forgotten about their improbable run to the NBA Finals as the No. 8 seed in 2022-23 -- but Jimmy Butler's drop-off is concerning. He's averaging his fewest points per game in a decade and shooting an anemic 15.4% from 3. And this performance comes on the heels of Butler and the Heat failing to reach an agreement on a contract extension in the offseason. If Butler's play continues to stagnate, Miami will certainly be motivated to find a trade partner, considering that if it doesn't, Butler would assuredly pick up his $52.4 million option for next season. And if the Heat move Butler, there's no telling what direction the rest of the season would go.

Pelton: MacMahon is right, the answer would be whoever is currently atop the pile of West teams from sixth through 10th. Right now, tiebreakers are the difference between advancing automatically to the playoffs or having to win two games on the road to get there. The standings might not stay quite that tight, but we saw a three-game gap between sixth and 10th last season, and the West looks even deeper by virtue of dominating early head-to-head matchups with the East.

Collier: The Orlando Magic are in a tough spot, facing extended time without star Paolo Banchero, who is sidelined by a torn right oblique. This young Magic team is going to have to learn to win without its No. 1 option, especially after Banchero opened the season on one of the best runs of his young career (29 points, 8.8 rebounds and 5.6 assists per game). The rest of the conference is giving the Magic room to breathe, but both Philadelphia and Milwaukee expect to make a push to claim some of the remaining playoff spots. Even though Banchero should play again this season, the fact the Magic will be playing at least a month without him likely means they will have to make up some ground when he returns to get back to the playoffs.

Bold prediction:

MacMahon: Nikola Jokic will win MVP. Again. Maybe it shouldn't be considered a bold prediction considering Jokic has won three of the past four MVPs, but fair or not, the bar for him to win a fourth is extraordinarily high because of the historical implications. He's clearing that bar, carrying a thin Denver roster while putting up the best numbers of his career, leading the league in rebounds (13.7 per game) and assists (11.7) while ranking fourth in scoring (29.7). There simply isn't a credible argument to be made that anyone else is currently the NBA's best player.

Bontemps: I'm not sure how bold it is at this point, but I'm going to call my shot and say the New Orleans Pelicans don't get into the play-in tournament. It's not through any fault of their own, as they are currently missing four of their top players -- Zion Williamson, Dejounte Murray, Herb Jones and CJ McCollum -- for extended periods because of injuries. But, in the unforgiving Western Conference, it's extremely difficult to dig out of the kind of hole this team has itself in. This was expected to be a big year for the Pels, after they traded for Murray and with Williamson coming off the healthiest season of his career. It's instead looking a lot like the season the Grizzlies had a year ago, when a snake-bitten roster wound up with a top-10 pick. At least this is expected to be a loaded draft, but that wasn't the conversation the Pelicans were looking to have.

McMenamin: The Charlotte Hornets will play an exciting brand of basketball with new coach Charles Lee and LaMelo Ball (averaging nearly 30 points per game) -- Brandon Miller, Miles Bridges, Tre Mann and Nick Richards round out the Hornets' core -- but will choose to prioritize the draft and fade down the stretch. The Hornets' 2025 first round pick will convey to the San Antonio Spurs if it falls outside the lottery, so Charlotte will land in the bottom 14 of what promises to be a loaded draft despite probably having enough talent to make a run at a play-in berth this season.

Pelton: The Pistons won't just make the play-in tournament, they'll win a game there. New coach J.B. Bickerstaff has the Pistons defending at a league-average level, and Cade Cunningham and Jaden Ivey have both taken steps forward on offense with more shooting around them. Just making the play-in would be a huge accomplishment for Detroit, which last won more than 23 games in 2018-19.

Collier: The Warriors will make the Western Conference finals. Golden State has replaced future Hall of Famer Klay Thompson with a crop of solid role players who fit their system extremely well. With Curry still playing at a superstar level, he will lift the Warriors to one more Olympics-style run through the postseason. The Warriors will claim one of the West's top seeds and clear a path to the conference finals again.

Nikola Bartunkova - the 2023 Wimbledon girls' singles runner-up - has been cleared to compete after she accepted a six-month doping ban for unknowingly ingesting a banned substance.

The Czech 18-year-old returned a positive test for trimetazidine in February and again in March and was provisionally suspended.

Trimetazidine is a metabolic modulator sometimes used as heart medication.

Following an investigation, the International Tennis Integrity Agency (ITIA) ruled that the positive tests had been caused by a contaminated supplement.

In a statement, the ITIA added that "the violation was not intentional, and that the player bore no significant fault or negligence".

As part of Bartunkova's sanction, her results between the first and second positive tests have been declared void, with the exception of a first-round result at an event held in the Czech Republic in March, where she returned a negative sample.

Time served under provisional suspension counts towards the period of ineligibility, and as such Bartunkova is now free to play.

Bartunkova beat then world number 21 Dayana Yastremska to secure her first WTA Tour victory last year.

She was beaten by American Clervie Ngounoue in last year's Wimbledon juniors final.

After the finest season of his career, Jannik Sinner has surged to an almost divine status enjoyed by only a handful of transcendent Italian sporting champions:

Skier Alberto Tomba, motorcyclist Valentino Rossi and footballer Roberto Baggio.

Sinner is aged just 23. But as the only player from the nation to ever be ranked as the world's best tennis player, he has already joined the pantheon.

The frenzied focus on the boy from San Candido as he arrived at the ATP Finals in Turin - camera-flashing photographers and screaming autograph-hunters being kept at arm's length by burly security men - demonstrated he is a man in demand.

And the well-documented doping case that is still ongoing does not seem to have lessened that demand if the newspaper columns and crowd support at his matches here are anything to go by.

"This is a fully new dimension," veteran Italian tennis journalist Ubaldo Scanagatta told BBC Sport.

"I have been attending Grand Slam tournaments since 1974, and I have only witnessed something similar for a tennis player once - in 1976 when Adriano Panatta won the French Open after beating Bjorn Borg in the quarter-finals."

It has been 'Sinnermania' in Turin.

All of the 183,000 tickets put on sale for the the ATP Finals - 30,000 more than in 2023 - were sold days before the start of the event.

On the secondary market, entry for the group-stage matches touched 600 euros (500). For the final - where everyone hopes to see their ginger-haired hero, nicknamed the 'Orange Fox' - they are going for 1,500 euros (1,250).

His arrival at a medical centre, where he underwent some fitness tests before the tournament, reminded many of what happened six years ago at Juventus' sports clinic when Cristiano Ronaldo signed: mass hysteria and unlimited enthusiasm.

His tennis quality and off-court personality - calmness and an understated humour - have made him a national darling and attracted blue-chip Italian brands to fight for his endorsement.

"Jannik represents a new way of being a tennis number one, one very close to people," said Diego Nargiso, a former world number 67 and now the master of ceremonies at the ATP Finals, the season-ending tournament for the top eight men's singles players and doubles teams.

"Hes so simple and down to earth. That's why the people - and the sponsors - love him."

One of his main characteristics is mental strength.

This not only allows him to raise his game when it counts most, but also helped him out of the toughest period of his career.

Australian Brett Robinson has become the first World Rugby chair from the southern hemisphere after narrowly beating former France international Abdelatif Benazzi to the governing body's top job.

Ex-Wallabies flanker Robinson shaded a final-round run-off vote among World Rugby's Council by 27 votes to 25, after Italy's Andrea Rinaldo had been eliminated earlier in the election.

Robinson succeeds former England captain Bill Beaumont who is stepping down after serving for eight years, the maximum term.

The 54-year-old plans to prioritise financial stability and commercial growth, with several national unions and club competitions coming under pressure on the balance sheet.

"Today, I reiterate my commitment as Chair to harness the abundant passion in our game and to lead for all, by creating the right culture to deliver commercial outcomes for a contemporary global sport," said Robinson.

Scrum-half Jack van Poortvliet and full-back Freddie Steward start for England against South Africa as head coach Steve Borthwick makes four changes to his starting XV.

The Leicester pair have yet to feature in the Autumn Nations Series but come straight into the line-up in place of Ben Spencer and George Furbank.

Ollie Sleightholme makes his first England start on the wing in place of the injured Immanuel Feyi-Waboso, while Sam Underhill comes in for Tom Curry, who is also missing with concussion.

Sleightholme is rewarded with a maiden Test start after scoring his first international tries in the defeat by Australia, as Tom Roebuck is named on the bench.

England host the world champions looking for their first home win since the Six Nations in April.

Borthwick's side have lost five of their past six matches, including narrow defeats from winning positions by New Zealand and Australia this autumn.

England last tasted victory in June against Japan, who they face in their final Autumn Nations Series game on 24 November.

The hosts will be looking to avenge their 16-15 defeat by South Africa in their last meeting in the 2023 World Cup semi-final.

The Springboks arrive in London following victory over Scotland, having claimed their first Rugby Championship title since 2019 in September.

Head coach Rassie Erasmus has made 12 changes to the side who won at Murrayfield, with captain Siya Kolisi returning to the starting XV.

"We're excited to challenge ourselves against the world's top-ranked team and back-to-back Rugby World Cup champions," said Borthwick.

"Test matches against South Africa are always thrilling contests, and I'm sure Saturday will be no exception."